So says the fireworks guy.It's about that time....
Wuhan, nCV, germs....
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Yep. My wife and I both had some nasty crap. Took a while for it to clear. Coughing and hacking for a few weeks. It was likely out there well before China said anything. And there were probably more than a few flights between Asia and the US.
drypowder
Les Deplorables
lmao, at you guys thinking you had this weeks or months ago. If it was spreading here that long ago, the hospitals would be full of viral pneumonia cases.
While most who are infected don't need medical attention, the elderly and those with comorbidities often get seriously ill. Think about how many Americans are obese, or have diabetes or heart disease or smoke or some combination of these things. Again, the local hospitals would be full if it's been spreading for several weeks in your area.
While most who are infected don't need medical attention, the elderly and those with comorbidities often get seriously ill. Think about how many Americans are obese, or have diabetes or heart disease or smoke or some combination of these things. Again, the local hospitals would be full if it's been spreading for several weeks in your area.
Les White
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Maybe we aren't pussies who don't run to the ER when we get the sniffles.
Jenny and I have had the same thing. We're both smokers so we're hanging on to our crud a little longer.
If you are serious, you completely missed the point.
Pneumonia isn’t the sniffles and if hundreds or thousands had it locally there would be a bunch of pneumonia deaths in local hospitals.
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I don’t understand how someone at an epicenter like that is not screened before boarding flight and traveling thousands of miles in a few hours. Crazy
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not a common cold, a common flu, which is most likely what this individual had in December. It is u likely Coronavirus was in triangle at that particular time.
yes the hysteria is overrated to an extent, but with new strains, there are too many unknowns to lose control. Right now there’s not a lot of data in pediatric cases and mid life seems mostly in clear, but with unusual rate of serious pulmonary complications that can be life threatening.
The numbers are worth taking seriously. 90k (+) cases and ~3k deaths (more will come from the 90k currently sick)...lets call that 3% lethality. At pandemic scale, let’s say 100 million people get the disease, that leaves about 3 million dead. Those are not # to brush off. While it sounds cold, this is less problematic at societal level of mostly affecting older people who are retired. However, if you take few million people of out the workforce of future workforce, that can have serious consequences.
not all workers will be easily replaced. Some specialized weapons material engineer at DARPA can’t be replaced the way a retail clerk can. A once in century scientist at google critical to their innovation engine...then loss at any large amount strains the system to reach equilibrium regardless of job type.
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your current health would be far more relevant than how much of a pussy you are or aren’t. A little education on biology and epidemiology would go long way.
though it does bring to mind some good references
from The Russel Crowe series “fightin round the world”
or it’s always sunny quarantine episode
drypowder
Les Deplorables
Tomorrow, the world ex-China will have more confirmed cases than China ex-Hubei.
In fact, some of China's new cases are from infected Chinese nationals and foreigners flying to China from Iran and Italy. China is imposing travel restrictions and quarantines on people flying in from hotspots.
In fact, some of China's new cases are from infected Chinese nationals and foreigners flying to China from Iran and Italy. China is imposing travel restrictions and quarantines on people flying in from hotspots.
Well aware of the numbers... the numbers that are stated... indeed, it seems that this is similar to the Spanish Flu, based on available tests... which mostly is following high profile Areas such as Wuhan, Diamond Princess, Iran (door-lickers), Italy.... and of course those that are dead.
What I am stating is that we have not Tested the Full Population as this is a novel coronavirus, there are not enough test kits like there are for the Flu A, B, H1N1, H5N1, etc...
There are not enough tests, nor accepted procedures to ensure a high confidence of Positives.
1. If we were to test 6 Billion people right now, I think you would see that MILLIONS would test positive.
2. We are only identifying deaths that did test positive... we are not identifying the positive recoveries. (Well, except for those that are tested and identified)
3. The data is skewed... Statistics 101... not enough observations in the denominator yet, to get a true R0, Mortality Rate and Recovery Rate
4. Even the CDC, Hopkins and WHO data will admit this in the appendices...
5. Although not a Post-Graduate Work in this field, I know data and when there is not enough to make a declaration. Which is what a lot of folks are doing now.
Can it change.. absolutely. Panic.. you bet. But it has not reached 1918 levels.... yet.
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Yes it’s called observational or recall bias though latter has more to do specifically with retrospective analyses many relevant data/stats Concepts regarding quality and fitness are relevant.
random sampling is obviously out of question and likely not best method anyway given specificity of variables being measured. But I think as more and more programs begin testing “anyone” with flu and/or idiopathic pneumonia, the data will become much higher integrity.
In the absence of data, at what point is it worth taking (drastic ?) measures to try to prevent it from getting to that point? At what point does the cost of keeping schools, non critical industry, travel, etc open exceed that of closing them down? What good is closing the proverbial barn door after the horses bolt and leave?
drypowder
Les Deplorables
The joint WHO- China report sheds some light on this. Don't recall the numbers off top of my head, but the population attack rate was fairly low outside Hubei. So while the virus is spreading, it doesn't seem to be spreading as quickly as influenza, despite there being no immunity in the population.
But the best measure isn't testing for the virus directly, but rather testing for antibodies. And such serological surveys are starting to be conducted in a few countries.
But he was funny!
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Chuckman
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It is entirely reasonable that he (or anyone) had A coronavirus, just not COVID-19. CVs are a dime a dozen. Catching a bug from travelers is super easy, and travelers are the perfect petri dish.
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Chuckman
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DrScaryGuy
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my wife is currently on stop 1 of 4 locations this month. she may or may not stop home in between some of them. most are through atlanta.
KitShickers
Well-Known Member
I live with a flight attendant. I’ve given up on trying not to get infected and have shifted my energy to boosting my immunity. Yay.
I live with a FA too!
Would I go to Wuhan? No. Italy is off the table for the moment too. That said, I'm not hiding in a hole... My extensive travel plans have not changed. I probably won't lick as many strangers across the pond, but I guess I will just have to make due...
I have wondered about the apparent shortage of testing kits in the US and I came across this in an article today:
My trip to Shanghai is supposed to be coming up... then a layover to Cambodia and Vietnam.. then I am taking a few personal days to head to Bhutan with a B-School buddy from India.
Then, I get to take real vacation to Iceland, Ireland and Scotland....
Eff-it... Since I am 10ft tall and bullet proof when I drink John Daniels... I just keep a Yeti full of it.
Then, I get to take real vacation to Iceland, Ireland and Scotland....
Eff-it... Since I am 10ft tall and bullet proof when I drink John Daniels... I just keep a Yeti full of it.
Some of the local Providers think we have been seeing it in the community and didn't realize it. One thinks its already world wide. It started in December and the Chinese tried to keep it hidden. The news media didn't really start reporting on it until early February-ish? For some who get it symptoms are like the flu with a key symptom being shortness of breath. However "many other individuals will just get a runny nose or a sore throat. Some people with the virus don’t seem to show any symptoms at all.
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...oms-and-how-deadly-is-covid-19/#ixzz6FoURzCmm
It may not be that far-fetched. Having said that. 1. Wash your hands. 2. Keep your hands out of your face.
Roland!
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I hear ya! My GF is a NP in an urgent care. I'm doomed.
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Chuckman
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Coronavirus is ALWAYS prevalent, especially in the fall and winter. It's like viral meningitis...testing is cost-prohibitive, and you treat it symptomatically.
The average person spreads the flu to 1.2 people. The rate of COVID is well over 2 the last time I read the figures (that is significant)
According to John’s Hopkins, the flu infects 1 BILLION people worldwide annually with a maximum of 646000 deaths (.0646%). In the US, it’s 9.3-45million cases with 12-64k deaths. That’s between .13% and .142% mortality.
COVID has 92,818 cases worldwide with 3,253 deaths (3.5% mortality). 118 cases in the US alone with 11 deaths (9.32% mortality)
Here is another interesting twist - a 3/3/2020 article from Oxford University's National Science Review suggests the virus has evolved into 2 strains.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...s-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091
HOUSTON — Dr. Peter Hotez says he made the pitch to anyone who would listen. After years of research, his team of scientists in Texas had helped develop a vaccine to protect against a deadly strain of coronavirus. Now they needed money to begin testing it in humans.
But this was 2016. More than a decade had passed since the viral disease known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, had spread through China, killing more than 770 people. That disease, an earlier coronavirus similar to the one now sweeping the globe, was a distant memory by the time Hotez and his team sought funding to test whether their vaccine would work in humans.
HOUSTON — Dr. Peter Hotez says he made the pitch to anyone who would listen. After years of research, his team of scientists in Texas had helped develop a vaccine to protect against a deadly strain of coronavirus. Now they needed money to begin testing it in humans.
But this was 2016. More than a decade had passed since the viral disease known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, had spread through China, killing more than 770 people. That disease, an earlier coronavirus similar to the one now sweeping the globe, was a distant memory by the time Hotez and his team sought funding to test whether their vaccine would work in humans.
since Johns (no ' ) Hopkins was brought up, here is their tracking chart:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
drypowder
Les Deplorables
You're making my point for me. I suspect the true mortality is way lower than these figures. But we won't know until we start seeing results of sero surveys, which will give us an idea of the attack rate on the population.
Separately, a dog in Hong Kong was confirmed infected after repeated tests. Weakly positive result; probably human to dog transmission.
My point is opposite of yours.
How is the transmission rate and mortality rate of COVID being higher than the flu (percentage wise, given that it’s a new thing) mean the flu is worse? The flu is more common but COVID, according to the data, is worse
You suspect the the data coming out of places like China is LOWER than what’s being reported? If anything, they’ve got much higher rates of infection/death and the means to prevent the news from getting out.
Many people have the flu and never see a doctor; their cases are not counted in flu statistics.My point is opposite of yours.
How is the transmission rate and mortality rate of COVID being higher than the flu (percentage wise, given that it’s a new thing) mean the flu is worse? The flu is more common but COVID, according to the data, is worse
You suspect the the data coming out of places like China is LOWER than what’s being reported? If anything, they’ve got much higher rates of infection/death and the means to prevent the news from getting out.
Similarly, many people may have a mild case of COVID-19 and never see a doctor or would not qualify for what is still generally limited testing if they did; their cases are not counted in COVID-19 statistics.
I believe @drypowder has expressed the idea that the number of "confirmed" cases has been artificially limited by adequate testing not being available. For a given number of deaths, a higher number of cases results in a lower mortality rate. There are actually two pretty good demonstrations of that in the current data.
South Korea - 40 deaths - 6,283 cases - 0.64%
Plague Ship - 6 deaths - 696 cases - 0.86%
The plague ship's passengers and crew were very heavily tested and South Korea has gone all-out with a massive testing program. In both cases, the more intensive testing would provide a clearer picture of actual contagion and mortality.Plague Ship - 6 deaths - 696 cases - 0.86%
drypowder
Les Deplorables
Correct. Plus China ex-Hubei was showing a much lower mortality rate than Hubei (0.7% vs ~3-4% in Hubei where medical system was overwhelmed) - this is per joint WHO-China report; briefing is on YouTube.
Also, we have flu surveillance systems and I'm sure there have been sero surveys, so we have a good idea of how many people get the flu each year - and that number is not the number of people who show up at a hospital with the flu. That's your denominator in calculating flu mortality.
For covid19 mortality, we don't have that figure, so we are using confirmed cases. How did they find these confirmed cases? By the infected presenting at hospitals. This is the sickest subset of the total infected.
As @gc70 notes, the examples of more widespread testing - S.Korea and plague ship - show lower mortality.
They have antibody tests now, so sero surveys have begun in China and per WHO, maybe a few other countries. That will give us a much better estimate of the actual denominator.
In the interim, I'd keep an eye on S.Korea as they are going all out on contact tracing and testing AND we can put more faith into their figures than China's.
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drypowder
Les Deplorables
Looking at the infections by country, the thing that has struck me over the past week supports the idea I've been suggesting - that covid19 spreads more easily in cold weather, like other coronaviruses and influenza.
Southeast Asian countries have had multiple cases for weeks, and they have very close ties/travel with China. Yet once the virus reached Italy, it absolutely exploded across Europe, catapulting these countries above most southeast Asian countries in a matter of days. I suspect most nations of Western Europe will have more confirmed cases than the highest count SE Asian country, Singapore, by next week.
Also look at Africa, which has very close ties to China. Flights are STILL operating between China and Africa. Yet I'm not seeing reports of community transmission. The first case in Nigeria was someone traveling from Italy.
Similarly, look at India. They had 3 cases for weeks (people who traveled from Wuhan). Then very recently they exploded to 30 - most were connected to a group of Italians who were vacationing. India will be a good test of this notion. With their crowded and often unsanitary conditions in many areas, if weather isn't playing a role, we should see an explosion of untraceable cases in the next couple of weeks that vaults India past damn near every country but China.
Southeast Asian countries have had multiple cases for weeks, and they have very close ties/travel with China. Yet once the virus reached Italy, it absolutely exploded across Europe, catapulting these countries above most southeast Asian countries in a matter of days. I suspect most nations of Western Europe will have more confirmed cases than the highest count SE Asian country, Singapore, by next week.
Also look at Africa, which has very close ties to China. Flights are STILL operating between China and Africa. Yet I'm not seeing reports of community transmission. The first case in Nigeria was someone traveling from Italy.
Similarly, look at India. They had 3 cases for weeks (people who traveled from Wuhan). Then very recently they exploded to 30 - most were connected to a group of Italians who were vacationing. India will be a good test of this notion. With their crowded and often unsanitary conditions in many areas, if weather isn't playing a role, we should see an explosion of untraceable cases in the next couple of weeks that vaults India past damn near every country but China.
As I said earlier... There is significant undertesting during this event. Due to lack of tests, possible milder forms unreported, and just the sheer effort to test the population; I still believe that this has spread more quickly and geographically than what can be reported.
Confirmed Cases and Deaths are the hot zones, post-mortem testings, and those that present themselves to health care facilities that may have a working test methodology.
The denominator is just not truly represented. And until that is... We just dont' know. (My opinion is still millions infected)
Confirmed Cases and Deaths are the hot zones, post-mortem testings, and those that present themselves to health care facilities that may have a working test methodology.
The denominator is just not truly represented. And until that is... We just dont' know. (My opinion is still millions infected)