Wuhan, nCV, germs....

My freaking mother in law is 72 and refuses to stay at home. Every other day, she goes to Trader Joe's to buy goat cheese... Infuriating...

I keep telling her, not to leave the house. Then at 7am, I look outside and her car is gone.
My bff's mom is in MI and is 84, and just will NOT stay home!
 
Y’ALL BE CAREFUL!
My wife’s aunt went to the Dr and was told she had Covid , go home and isolate. She was feeling bad last night, wouldn’t answer the phone this morning. Her son called this morn and didn’t get an answer. The police did a wellness call and found her on the floor, she was taken to the hospital and ventilated. She died today before her son could get to Myrtle Beach from Raleigh.
So sorry for the loss of a family member.....
 
Would make sense and is known to be the case with many other viruses. Its somewhat analogous to the colonization with bacterial infections. you are essentially asymptomatic until critical mass forms. Those with robust immune systems (most adult who have been sick many times) essentially fight the disease faster than replication rate. The fundamentals are all there in this episode, minus most humans having prior contact with coronaviruses. In that sense, viral load probably one of the major components at this phase between man and virus.

on side note, zinc containing drops have a lot of theoretical promise as this virus unlikely makes it to the lungs upon initial entry. if we assume most cases start with infected intermediary cells in the trachea, larynx, upper esophagus to breed, with cell death releasing virus deeper into passageways, the viral replication can be disrupted by zinc. its been shown effective in other infections, but no direct evidence that there is effective delivery of the zinc where needed for THIS particular disease. But for $10, worth adding to the armory. This iterative mode of entry likely explains a lot of the gastrointestinal clinical manifestations as well.


I've been taking Zinc and Vitamin C for a while (before this started). Once this started you couldn't find it anywhere. Some reports says Zinc and Vitamin C help. Others say no. In China Covid-19 patients were given Vitamin C 1,000-1,500mg IV TID or QID. Looks like its being used in the USA some now.

New York hospitals treating coronavirus patients with vitamin C
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/

Can Vitamin C Prevent and Treat Coronavirus?
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228745

And on the opposite end:
Why vitamin C won't 'boost' your immune system against the coronavirus
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-vitamin-c-myth.html

Coronavirus: To zinc or not to zinc?
https://www.uchealth.org/today/zinc-could-help-diminish-extent-of-covid-19/

The Truth About Vitamin D, Zinc, and Other Coronavirus Rumors
https://elemental.medium.com/the-tr...inc-and-other-coronavirus-rumors-a217eb4b655f

Years ago when I worked acute Rehab every surgical patient that got admitted was prescribed Zinc and Vitamin C to help their incision heal. For Covid-19 it may not help but it certainly won't hurt.
 
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Y’ALL BE CAREFUL!
My wife’s aunt went to the Dr and was told she had Covid , go home and isolate. She was feeling bad last night, wouldn’t answer the phone this morning. Her son called this morn and didn’t get an answer. The police did a wellness call and found her on the floor, she was taken to the hospital and ventilated. She died today before her son could get to Myrtle Beach from Raleigh.
So sorry to hear of your family's loss.
 
I've been taking Zinc and Vitamin C for a while (before this started). Once this started you couldn't find it anywhere. Some reports says Zinc and Vitamin C help. Others say no. In China Covid-19 patients were given Vitamin C 1,000-1,500mg IV TID or QID. Looks like its being used in the USA some now.

New York hospitals treating coronavirus patients with vitamin C
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/

Can Vitamin C Prevent and Treat Coronavirus?
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228745

And on the opposite end:
Why vitamin C won't 'boost' your immune system against the coronavirus
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-vitamin-c-myth.html

Coronavirus: To zinc or not to zinc?
https://www.uchealth.org/today/zinc-could-help-diminish-extent-of-covid-19/

The Truth About Vitamin D, Zinc, and Other Coronavirus Rumors
https://elemental.medium.com/the-tr...inc-and-other-coronavirus-rumors-a217eb4b655f

Years ago when I worked acute Rehab every surgical patient that got admitted was prescribed Zinc and Vitamin C to help their incision heal. For Covid-19 it may not help but it certainly won't hurt.

Yeah, vitamin C is way misunderstood. People take it like it was an antibiotic or some kind of treatment. C like vitamin D and plethora of other micronutrients are components of a complex biological machine. Like nails or lumbar being high profile components of a house, you can't build a house without the bazillion other material and tools that create a 'healthy, viable' construction site (immune system in analogy).

The Zinc while also involved in immune health/immunomodulation, it also (with other RNA viruses) has shown potential to interfere with aspects of viral life cycle like capsid formation and transmembrane activity of the cell that virus rely on. Obviously still TBD with COVD, but as you say, can't hurt.
 
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My freaking mother in law is 72 and refuses to stay at home. Every other day, she goes to Trader Joe's to buy goat cheese... Infuriating...

I keep telling her, not to leave the house. Then at 7am, I look outside and her car is gone.

Yep, my mom and dad are going to Wally world in Siler every other day for the "essentials". Mom is 78 and dad is 80.
 
I read an article somewhere yesterday about manufacturing jobs being held by many Chinese employees that apparently travel back and forth a lot from Italy in a few small towns, of which there is a greater number of covid cases than the rest of Italy
Beck was saying China bought up the Italian leather companies in N Italy and there’s a lot of travel back for the to China and that’s why they became the European epicenter.
 
Beck was saying China bought up the Italian leather companies in N Italy and there’s a lot of travel back for the to China and that’s why they became the European epicenter.


Yep. The Chinese companies wanted the clout of the product saying "Made in Italy." But, they didn't want to pay for Italian labor. So, they send gobs of their laborers over there to work in the Italian factories, with workers constantly rotating in and out.
 
Y’ALL BE CAREFUL!
My wife’s aunt went to the Dr and was told she had Covid , go home and isolate. She was feeling bad last night, wouldn’t answer the phone this morning. Her son called this morn and didn’t get an answer. The police did a wellness call and found her on the floor, she was taken to the hospital and ventilated. She died today before her son could get to Myrtle Beach from Raleigh.
That's horrible. Sorry, brother...
 
Home Depot limiting to 150 people in the store at a time, one leaves one gets to come in etc
More and more places offering deals on take out food
Retailers offering curbside pickup
Lexington NC now has a curfew, our state on Lockdown in just about 24 hours.
Wild stuff.
I'll be teaching this one day. That's crazy.
 
My buddy in WV says that he is getting worried about job security. He said that his hospital is 180-200 beds and currently has 50-60 admitted in anticipation of a coming flood that just isn't happening. Like most every area they have cancelled all the elective surgeries and he says that he is afraid that the waiting will cause layoffs.

Here in the jungle, Cape Fear Valley furloughed 300 employees...

https://www.fayobserver.com/news/20...00-employees-in-midst-of-coronavirus-pandemic
 
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Yep, my mom and dad are going to Wally world in Siler every other day for the "essentials". Mom is 78 and dad is 80.
Sounds like my parents except it’s the Food Kitty in Siler City and the ABC store.
I'll be teaching this one day. That's crazy.
Since I’m work at home for the next three weeks, on Friday I called the pharmacy to see what I could get as far as stocking up on medications. You get there and there is no more going in. You park in a pickup stall and call them and tell them which stall and your name. They take a CC over the phone and then bring it out to you with a receipt. The vet next door was the same way.
Here in the jungle, Cape Fear Valley furloughed 300 employees...
I have been thinking that the for profit, insurance based medical system is going to be a big casualty before this is over. While some business and pro corporate types might disagree I think laying off hospital employees because you’ve geared up for what’s coming is really, really, stupid, but it does show the razor thin margins these places are possibly operating on, which doesn’t bode well. You threaten their ability to get by financially in the interests of profit and then expect them to turn around at a moments notice and come in and risk getting infected themselves. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see many of them give the administration a big eff you, and tell them to treat the sick themselves.
 
Yep. The Chinese companies wanted the clout of the product saying "Made in Italy." But, they didn't want to pay for Italian labor. So, they send gobs of their laborers over there to work in the Italian factories, with workers constantly rotating in and out.

Anytime you see a product description that just says "Imported" rather than where its from, you can bet its China.
 
I remember the days. Level A gear, middle of a gravel parking lot, air temp 90+. Drank all I could hold before we went on air, sweated so much that sweat was ponding in my boots. Drank all I could afterwards, didn't piss for a long time. I still loved every minute of it..............

Level A sucks, the SCBA inside of the tyvek? No, thank you. Been there done that. MOPP level 4, in the mid east, 130°, eyepieces are fogging up, trying to intubate somebody? Been there, done that.

I did not love it then, I do not love it now. But I will do it if that's what I need to do.
 
Like women. Now when they open their mouth and have a Cleveland accent it just ruins the allure. Give me a real South American, Oriental or British woman with the accent any day.
How about women from down under?
delta_ad0xpt.jpg
 
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I remember the days. Level A gear, middle of a gravel parking lot, air temp 90+. Drank all I could hold before we went on air, sweated so much that sweat was ponding in my boots. Drank all I could afterwards, didn't piss for a long time. I still loved every minute of it..............

Same here....

Best part of Level A?

That rush of air when the suit gets unzipped. Can be 95+ outside and that air feels like A/C.
 
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Everything is wild speculation until this is over, post whatever link from whatever political spectrum you want.

Hindsight will tell us whether we did enough or too little.
I agree.

That said, I’m interested in human life AND economics.

The second can impact the first if we don’t pay attention to it.
 
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I agree.

That said, I’m interested in human life AND economics.

The second can impact the first if we don’t pay attention to it.


Exactly... All the extreme lockdown folks think they're way is the way that's going to save lives... When they sink the economy and we have a nation wide Katrina-like situation from unemployment, looting and violence, we'll see how many lives that costs us...
 
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Does this mean Trish Regan gets her job back?

I prefer we error on doing too much rather than too little. And if some got over zealous in the predictions, OK. But, if the numbers were deliberately inflatated for political issues, hang'em. It's probably going to backfire on them anyway, because everyone sees what they're doing.
 
My sister is in NJ, tells me the orthodox Jewish folk continue to have weddings with several hundred guests, up to 500 in Lakewood, NJ.
 
Yep, I have a few friends employed there. They have a massive amount of open beds, ER traffic is INSANELY low, EMS calls are down. People are flat out scared to go to the hospital. The vacancy sign being lit is bad for business.
Will the corona stimulus bill try to address situations like this? If the hospitals eventually being over-run is the main issue with this virus, does that bill focus on putting government (our) money into the hospitals and staff now to beef everything up in preparation?
 
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Will the corona stimulus bill try to address situations like this? If the hospitals eventually being over-run is the main issue with this virus, does that bill focus on putting government (our) money into the hospitals and staff now to beef everything up in preparation?

My guess is yes. I worked in health care for 23 years, managed a hazmat team for the better part of 10 years, was with a DMAT for the same time and was on a load of 9/11 based emergency management committees. After Y2K and 9/11 money flowed like a river to emergency services and healthcare. Within 5 years it was barely a trickle. In 2008-2009 money for dang near anything dried up.

'IF' healthcare based entities are smart they will use that money to build conditioned storage buildings, snatch up all the stuff they can get now, rotate it in and out FIFO, and maintain a much higher par level for everything. The problem is health care administrations may not be smart enough to 1) listen to the staff about what to purchase, 2) use the money for that instead of shit they will never need, 3} quit building these high dollar facilities and instead follow the form follow functions building model, and 4) reduce the cost of nursing education and possible go back to the RN versus B.S. RN educational model.

Unfortunately I think that after all is said and done this will blow over, and health care (especially for-profit corporations) will go back to it's normally screwed up operational model.
 
My guess is yes. I worked in health care for 23 years, managed a hazmat team for the better part of 10 years, was with a DMAT for the same time and was on a load of 9/11 based emergency management committees. After Y2K and 9/11 money flowed like a river to emergency services and healthcare. Within 5 years it was barely a trickle. In 2008-2009 money for dang near anything dried up.

'IF' healthcare based entities are smart they will use that money to build conditioned storage buildings, snatch up all the stuff they can get now, rotate it in and out FIFO, and maintain a much higher par level for everything. The problem is health care administrations may not be smart enough to 1) listen to the staff about what to purchase, 2) use the money for that instead of shit they will never need, 3} quit building these high dollar facilities and instead follow the form follow functions building model, and 4) reduce the cost of nursing education and possible go back to the RN versus B.S. RN educational model.

Unfortunately I think that after all is said and done this will blow over, and health care (especially for-profit corporations) will go back to it's normally screwed up operational model.

Your experience generally parallels mine, and I totally agree with you. Post 9/11 we were spending money like drunken sailors, but after a few years the budget was almost nil, and leadership lost heart in the mission. On the military side, I was attached to a CBRNE unit, and we trained like mad because our S2 folks (intel) were in the know and told us about all the cooties and bad people out there.
 
Glenn Reynolds picked up this article too. Sounds like the virus modeling might not be exactly accurate. As in wildly inaccurate.
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/362826/

We have discussed this model on here at some point. Some of the methodology wasn't great, and it worked on worst-case scenarios. The author(s) of the model have definitely revised, and there's several reasons: social distancing works, quarantines work, etc. But, what's NOT being picked up the media, is in his revisions, even though he is calling for fewer deaths, he is also predicting a higher number of critical care patients, and that is definitely being played out.
 
Herschel at The Captains Journal has been analyzing and modeling the active cases from an engineering perspective. He updated his model and the infected cases are now following a 3rd order polynomial with a high degree of accuracy. It shows the infection rate slowing and spreading out, which is good. He lists reasons for this but refuses to step into the quagmire of which and why.

One thing I saw this morning is that based upon current numbers and the high rate of asymptomatic carriers is that you need about 11% of the population to have confirmed infection to assume herd immunity.

What’s equally bad policy, that some like Birx wanted to push, was to just assume we had undetected high spread previously and hence current high immunity. The argument was that since there’s no data we will just assume the best case scenario and set policy accordingly.
 
Herschel at The Captains Journal has been analyzing and modeling the active cases from an engineering perspective. He updated his model and the infected cases are now following a 3rd order polynomial with a high degree of accuracy. It shows the infection rate slowing and spreading out, which is good. He lists reasons for this but refuses to step into the quagmire of which and why.

This is a from a friend of mine, a former SF 18D, now has a doctorate in PH and works for a med center out west:

I have been mentioning for a while now that we would have a good idea of how things would be looking for the US by this weekend; and would be fairly certain by next Friday 4/3.

As of this weekend, data shows that the incidence rate continues to increase and we are seeing rapid growth in the number of cases. Graph is below.

Note the vertical spread in dots increasing considerably over the past 15 days (indicated by the red arrows for the past 4 days). As stated (previously), we want these vertical gaps to begin narrowing to indicate a reduction in new cases.

The raw growth in new cases could be written-off by some as simply being due to more widespread testing; however, that notion is challenged by the fact that deaths continue to increase at a rate proportional to new cases, and the US Case Fatality Rate is currently 1.76% (2,497/142,106).

Are there cases in the US that are not being caught by testing? Yes. This fact means that our case count would likely be higher, and deaths proportionally lower, thus decreasing case fatality; although not likely anywhere near traditional flu.

If the isolation measures have been effective, new case counts should begin trending downward by end of next week (for those of you who are fans of the Diamond Princess case study, there was about a 4 week viral life cycle on that ship, where they experienced a 10% ICU rate and a 1.3% CFR).

The next 7 days will be very telling.

1918 Spanish Flu CFR: ~2.5%
Regular Flu CFR: <0.1%

World CFR: 4.71% (33,958/721,584)
US CFR: 1.76% (2,497/142,106)
UK CFR: 6.22% (1,231/19,784)
Italy CFR: 11.03% (10,779/97,689)
Germany CFR: 0.87% (541/62,095)
France CFR: 6.41% (2,611/40,723)
South Korea CFR: 1.59% (152/9,583)

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Level A sucks, the SCBA inside of the tyvek? No, thank you. Been there done that. MOPP level 4, in the mid east, 130°, eyepieces are fogging up, trying to intubate somebody? Been there, done that.

I did not love it then, I do not love it now. But I will do it if that's what I need to do.
She thinks my tyveks sexy.
 
Will the corona stimulus bill try to address situations like this? If the hospitals eventually being over-run is the main issue with this virus, does that bill focus on putting government (our) money into the hospitals and staff now to beef everything up in preparation?

Nah... It's all going to the Kennedy Center and green jet fuel...
 
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