When the dollar falls

noway2

Senior Member
2A Bourbon Hound OG
Charter Life Member
Multi-Factor Enabled
Joined
Dec 16, 2016
Messages
21,182
Location
Onboard the mothership
Rating - 100%
5   0   0
Here’s a good one for you @tanstaafl72555

https://ncrenegade.com/editorial/wo...alls-everything-falls-everywhere-john-rubino/

Financial writer John Rubino says gold is at new all-time highs, silver is vaulting upward and there is no end in sight for the massive money printing around the world. Rubino say’s if you look deeper, you can see the “real message” in the unfolding events. Rubino explains, “It’s fun to be a gold bug and see your stacks getting more valuable, but the real message here is the world is on the verge of spinning out of control. That’s what gold and silver are signaling. We’re just a mess with no way out of this because even before the pandemic hit, we were running deficits in the U.S. of a trillion dollars a year. That is an emergency level of government borrowing, but we were doing it in the 10th year of a recovery or expansion.
 
I think that Rubino’s statement is generally correct. I don’t have a problem with using economic policy, including deficit spending, as a tool, but we’re in a place where we’re using it to hide the negative impacts of low/no restrictions on international trade while we maintain high costs and regulation vs other countries that do not. If we weren’t really juicing the economy we would not have had the recovery without using other tools, tools that are more transparent, harder to use and more closely scrutinized.

Eventually we’re going to have a really big bust. Gold might top $5,000 and the dow will hit $100,000 and the treasury presses will be running 24x7 and might well be outsourced to China.
 
I think that Rubino’s statement is generally correct. I don’t have a problem with using economic policy, including deficit spending, as a tool, but we’re in a place where we’re using it to hide the negative impacts of low/no restrictions on international trade while we maintain high costs and regulation vs other countries that do not. If we weren’t really juicing the economy we would not have had the recovery without using other tools, tools that are more transparent, harder to use and more closely scrutinized.

I like a little bit of heroin every day, myself. I mean, as long as you keep it under control. If I weren't running skag every day, I would not have those eubullient moments of exaltation with a feeling of total contentment, warm and happy in my safe place away from all problems. Surely you don't think I should be denied that pleasure?
 
You can't eat gold and silver. You also can't sell it easily. Especially Silver. They are both bad investments.
Nobody but an idiot thinks they are "investments."

However, on two occasions I had big ticket items I wanted to purchase and no available capital. I sold gold and had the money in my bank account within 24 hours. You can talk all you like. It is a free country. It is better when you know something about that which you are talking, though.
 
Last edited:
One time the State on NC put a freeze on all my accounts (including my business) for $21,000 for taxes they thought I owed (I didn't). I got 11 Krugerrands, sold them and had the money in my account that time in less than 45 mins. I paid on average 1233 dollars for them. The person bawling out about slippage (that is what we have when we talk about difference between spot and the price you pay/get) has NO idea how much he gets screwed over on the bid/ask spread on equities, the fees his broker squeezes out of his IRA, and the way he is feeding the tax machine on the Wall Street scam (either cap gains or regular income.... you WILL pay it somewhere). I have never paid a penny on capital gains on the three times I sold any PMs, and I am promising you, the gains were hefty.
 
Most people are so conditioned to measuring wealth in terms of dollars that they have ZERO IDEA of how to measure wealth if/when the dollar goes to zero. I think that event is a long way off, but everything reverts to its true worth, which is measured in utility, not government edicts. Paper money will eventually fall to its true value which is zero. People at present cannot comprehend the idea of measuring wealth in ounces rather than government fiat paper....., but they will get used to it. Problem is that will be too late to avoid penury for MANY.
 
But, the guy on the TV commercial says it's a great investment!?
I forgot to add the sarcastic font...
Y'all are way smarter on the PM issue then I am. If you could just tell me when it's time to sell, I'd really appreciate it.
I sold a business in 1999 and took a bit of silver as part of the deal. Selling is starting to look interesting.
 
And so does the salesman at the jewelry store trying to sell your wife a diamond ring.

You know what's a better investment than a diamond? A crate of hi-points.

Ones pretty, ones ugly, but only one will be worth anything when it's time to sell.
 
I forgot to add the sarcastic font...
Y'all are way smarter on the PM issue then I am. If you could just tell me when it's time to sell, I'd really appreciate it.
I sold a business in 1999 and took a bit of silver as part of the deal. Selling is starting to look interesting.
If it’s 1999 spot price silver you’re talking sub $6 per ounce ... so you’re 4X for spot by today’s price. If you sold 25% (39% if you factor in 1999 vs 2020 value of the dollar) of what you’re holding you’d take out your initial amount and be playing on “gained” silver. As to if, when, how much, etc ... that’s something your situation (needs and wants) should really factor in ...
 
We based on $4.10/oz so, I'm almost 6x

I missed the 2011 price spike because I wasn't even kinda paying attention then.
Ive never sold silver, my 1st stop would probably be the BST section followed by?
If I'm being honest with myself, I'll probably miss the "right time" to sell, ride the wave to the bottom then kick myself for 10 more years til the next spike and miss it too.
 
I like a little bit of heroin every day, myself. I mean, as long as you keep it under control. If I weren't running skag every day, I would not have those eubullient moments of exaltation with a feeling of total contentment, warm and happy in my safe place away from all problems. Surely you don't think I should be denied that pleasure?
Not quite sure if you’re agreeing or disagreeing, but a little narcotic to take the edge off after being shot is a good thing while getting a little high every day is a bad thing. The government is getting us very high every day and convincing most of us that it’s the new normal.
 
I forgot to add the sarcastic font...
Y'all are way smarter on the PM issue then I am. If you could just tell me when it's time to sell, I'd really appreciate it.
I sold a business in 1999 and took a bit of silver as part of the deal. Selling is starting to look interesting.
I will pay you spot for it right now.
 
Everytime I see one of those commercials asking me to buy precious metals I think to myself, why in hell do they want to trade me gold or silver for my paper money that will be worthless one day? o_O:rolleyes:
 
looking at the small nugget of good news. US exports will increase with low dollar.
 
Jayne is right, again...
"You know what's a better investment than a diamond? A crate of hi-points."

here's why: gold and silver are up but diamonds are down. way down.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...usiness-after-diamond-collapse-exposes-cracks

on the other topic: US dollar...global capital has to go somewhere.
you see it everyday. stocks up (who's buying?) while economy tanks.
for those who don't believe in the dollar (or any other currency)=gold.
the dollar is sort of like the old "cleanest dirty shirt".
gold (PM) is the "cleanest dirty underwear".
ammo/guns are bleach.
 
Last edited:
to be honest only people who know how to barter will be the ones who survive
I posted on Another gun forum once that there would never be a time I would barter ammo for things I needed. I opined that I would simply take whatever I wanted rather than arm somebody that could then rob Me.
BOY!!! The owner operator went Bonzo!!! He said..best I remember...that it was awful that I would be such a low down human as to take from defenseless people. It was his show so I bowed out without further comment.
I stand by my Barter methodology.
 
gold and silver are up but diamonds are down. way down.
Metals are too volatile for Old folks. No time to make up any Quick losses. The PMs and Diamonds are no different than other Hard currency...guns....I sold a diamond 2 weeks ago for 50% more than I paid for it last year.
As with ALL things....you make money Only when you buy. When you Sell you find out what your "investment" was really "worth".
If you Buy High, it's difficult to make a profit.
 
We based on $4.10/oz so, I'm almost 6x

I missed the 2011 price spike because I wasn't even kinda paying attention then.
Ive never sold silver, my 1st stop would probably be the BST section followed by?
If I'm being honest with myself, I'll probably miss the "right time" to sell, ride the wave to the bottom then kick myself for 10 more years til the next spike and miss it too.
I am serious. You wanna sell, talk to me. I will give you spot, which is better than the dealers will.
 
pm me your venmo. If Biden is still in and Hillary not at the Dem convention, the 20 is yours. NO silver. ;)
Well as we're days away from August, we need to figure out a different method than venmo, I dont have it. PayPal?
 
You know what's a better investment than a diamond? A crate of hi-points.

Ones pretty, ones ugly, but only one will be worth anything when it's time to sell.
I have a number of throwaway handguns for that very purpose.
 
Everytime I see one of those commercials asking me to buy precious metals I think to myself, why in hell do they want to trade me gold or silver for my paper money that will be worthless one day? o_O:rolleyes:
b/c it has value NOW, because there are still many people who believe "because the government says so" is a reason for assigning value to paper with pictures of dead politicians on it. The whole thing is whether or not that "full faith and confidence of the US Government" is going to collapse.
 
Last edited:
So, the way I’m thinking about it - I have some fixed costs that will not change, regardless of the value of the dollar. Is this right?
-House payment
-Car payment (wife’s minivan)
So having money saved to pay those for a while in case of emergency is not a bad thing - I would have a use for that money in paying for those.
But other things could change, as prices rise (inflation), making saved money lose value (less purchasing power). So it would be good to hedge that money in something other than dollars, like guns, ammo, food, tools, precious metals, etc.
How does this impact 401ks and pensions? They are just at the mercy of the dollar, and could be lost? Or is there really a way to hedge them that doesn’t depend on the value of the dollar?
 
Last edited:
So, the way I’m thinking about it - I have some fixed costs that will not change, regardless of the value of the dollar. Is this right?
-House payment
-Car payment (wife’s minivan)
So having money saved to pay those for a while in case of emergency is not a bad thing - I would have a use for that money in paying for those.
But other things could change, as prices rise (inflation), making saved money lose value (less purchasing power). So it would be good to hedge that money in something other than dollars, like guns, ammo, food, tools, precious metals, etc.
How does this impact 401ks and pensions? They are just at the mercy of the dollar, and could be lost? Or is there really a way to hedge them that doesn’t depend on the value of the dollar?
You can buy gold and silver shares as part of your portfolio. I know folks say you need to physically possess it all, but at some point you gotta be able to lug that stuff around with you and protect it. I mean, just $30,000 of silver at current prices would weigh 100 lbs. if my math is correct.
 
Last edited:
I'm going to appeal to recent history.

If you look at the Balkans, there was what? 3 or 4 years of Mad Max style living in many places.
I have yet to hear a single instance from any of the people who are writing accounts of that time talking about gold or silver being in demand, being used for trading, or having any real value whatsoever.

Playing gold and silver is like the stock market- hypothetical value that may net you some gains in a functioning society, but if you're counting on it as a hedge against the world disintegrating, you're going to be disappointed and hungry.

my feelings are mutual. I can't remember using a metal detector to pick up 8M3 at the beach either
 
You can't eat gold and silver. You also can't sell it easily. Especially Silver. They are both bad investments.
I'm going to appeal to recent history.

If you look at the Balkans, there was what? 3 or 4 years of Mad Max style living in many places.
I have yet to hear a single instance from any of the people who are writing accounts of that time talking about gold or silver being in demand, being used for trading, or having any real value whatsoever.

Playing gold and silver is like the stock market- hypothetical value that may net you some gains in a functioning society, but if you're counting on it as a hedge against the world disintegrating, you're going to be disappointed and hungry.


I have ZERO knowledge about PM buying and selling. I agree with the quotes above for the most part. As Dave Ramsey says "You can't eat precious metals." In a recession I can see the value of having some. But not in a depression or civil unrest like in Venezuela where grocery stores are empty and people are robbing and killing just to survive. Food is hard to come by in those situations. Recession...sure. Depression/Economic collapse etc. you can't eat it and it will not do you any good to have PM if you are starving to death. The problem is knowing when the crap truly hits the fan. I would think in those situations ammo would be the most precious metal.
 
Last edited:
Guy named Mike Brewer on Wheeler Dealer from the UK. He left London with $1,000 and went around the world buying and trading cars. He returned driving a Mercedes SL AMG. A fairly new model.
He said the thing he learned from all his travels and trades that no matter what country he found himself in or what car he was trading for, the accepted currency of The World was the American $100 Bill.
Not quite useless yet.
 
this guy who lived in Argentina
during the economic "melt-down"
says PMs were good when money
lost much of it's value.
quote:
Gold became an instant hit right after the economic collapse of 2001, the business of buying gold went up 500% the years after the collapse. All of a sudden every jewelry store and every kiosk, every new shop that opened was all about buying gold. With terrible rates of unemployment and inflation people became desperate, and the first thing they did after running out of money was turn to belongings they could sell. Of course, selling jewelry meant you could go to any of these stores and walk out with some cash to put food on the table.


https://ferfal.blogspot.com/2015/06/what-to-do-with-goldsilver.html
 
I have yet to hear a single instance from any of the people who are writing accounts of that time talking about gold or silver being in demand, being used for trading, or having any real value whatsoever.
There are two ways of looking at it. One is that metals are a hedge against inflation in that as the dollar is devalued, they gain more dollars in terms of price, meaning your actual purchasing power is more stable.

Two, they’re probably worthless in a WROL situation, but right before it gets spicy they may have trade value. After things settle, and some new non dollar currency is in place (or no currency) they may have trade value again.
 
Back
Top Bottom