All the drama with Ukraine, inflation, uncertainty...... is GOOD. Here is why

In the Fallout game series, Nuka Cola bottle caps were the currency of choice. They have no intrinsic value, but they are limited in supply, light weight and easy to carry, and hard to reproduce, fungible (one is like any other), making them an ideal currency.
They also were orginally backed by water stores in the Hub... interestingly enough.

I was talking with someone the other day about this, in regards to perceived value and medium of exchange.

By the time the New Vegas era had come, they were known to, the Hub traders that is, to take control of or destroy cap making machines to keep people from making "counterfeits"
 
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Precious metals have never been a wealth grower. They have always been a wealth insulator.

In Caesar’s time a fine suit of clothing cost an ounce of gold and the same true today.

That’s a mighty long time. So if your SHTF plan doesn’t include precious metals then you are being short sighted.

Man will always place value on them.
 
What good is a precious metal if the SHTF? It doesnt serve any value other than being pretty and to be put into electronic circuit boards right?

Well.... You can bet on pieces of paper with dead politicians on them to hold their value if you wish, but you have a 100% historical record of wipeout there.
 
Well.... You can bet on pieces of paper with dead politicians on them to hold their value if you wish, but you have a 100% historical record of wipeout there.
And realistically, I think that this is just it. I think it's pretty clear that the days of the USD being king are numbered and it will likely become a junk currency. If the Russians and Chinese start using a system outside of this "SWIFT" thing due to the sanctions, there would be a real possibility of it being the end of oil being traded in dollars, which would pretty much doom the dollar.
 
And realistically, I think that this is just it. I think it's pretty clear that the days of the USD being king are numbered and it will likely become a junk currency. If the Russians and Chinese start using a system outside of this "SWIFT" thing due to the sanctions, there would be a real possibility of it being the end of oil being traded in dollars, which would pretty much doom the dollar.

Mmmm...maybe.

"Value" of the dollar, and all other world currencies, is based on it's buying and purchasing price as a commodity, which is affected by the amount of currency that is bought. Just like in the stock market, when it's hot the price goes up, when it's not, the price goes down.

And it's also relative to all the other currencies out there, as well.

It's also good to remember that even though we haven't been on the gold standard for jus over half a century now, we STILL have untold amounts of gold stashed away in Ft. Knox. Why? For much the same reason that many of us would have precious metals as part of a SHTF scenario. It's about helping the world economy and the politics behind it. It creates stability in the market place.

Total U.S. gold holdings is supposedly 261 million fine troy ounces, of which 147.43 million are in Ft. Knox. That's about $500 Billion at the current market price of $1,905.7/troy ounce.

The way the government values the gold in Ft. Knox, however, is a "book value" of $6.22 Billion". That's because they're using the fixed price that official set in 1973.

We hold the largest stash of gold in the world. 261 million troy ounces translates to about 8,949 tons. One site that ranks nations by gold holdings places it at 8,134 tonnes, which is very close. (Converting tons to tonnes using my numbers comes out to 8,118 tonnes, so very close.)

In tonnes, the top ten nations are:

USA: 8,134
Germany: 3,364
Italy: 2,452
France: 2,436
Russia: 2,300
China: 1,948
Switzerland: 1,040
Japan: 765
India: 658
Netherlands: 613


So if precious metals float your boat for investments and stability, then the U.S. has as much gold reserves at the next three nations combined and more than the remaining six nations on that list combined. About twice that of Russia and China combined.

Keep in mind we're only talking about gold here, not any other precious metals which I have no idea how much we have. But Ft. Knox alone stores other things...among them, most interestingly, is a cubic b*tt-ton of morphine.

That's a ton (see what I did there?) of economic stability and power right there. So I doubt the value of the dollar will "crash". Yeah, it'll go up and down a bit, I'm sure.


 
And realistically, I think that this is just it. I think it's pretty clear that the days of the USD being king are numbered and it will likely become a junk currency.

Agree, but I do think you will see the day where our currency, whether paper or coins, will be a hell of a lot more valuable than it is now.

When the push for “digital” currency (Fed controlled, of course) gets implemented, you’ll see the value of physical currrency go through the roof.
 
"Value" of the dollar, and all other world currencies, is based on it's buying and purchasing price as a commodity, which is affected by the amount of currency that is bought. Just like in the stock market, when it's hot the price goes up, when it's not, the price goes down.
The USD has another factor influencing it's value: being the reserve currency used to denominate trade. This causes an artificial demand for dollars that might otherwise not exist.

When the push for “digital” currency (Fed controlled, of course) gets implemented, you’ll see the value of physical currency go through the roof.
You're sly. 😁 Indeed, anyone who gives two bits about anonymity and privacy will greatly value the physical currency.
 
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Agree, but I do think you will see the day where our currency, whether paper or coins, will be a hell of a lot more valuable than it is now.

When the push for “digital” currency (Fed controlled, of course) gets implemented, you’ll see the value of physical currrency go through the roof.

That "push" has been going on for quite a number of years, with the foundation being set decades ago.

There are laws in place in which banks are required to report certain transactions by amount and frequency. They can even stop additional transactions by law.

For example, I ran afoul of one in which I could not transfer funds from my savings account to other accounts (notibly my checking account". This is "Regulation D", in case you've never run across it, which limits you from making more than six withcrawals or transfers a month from a savings account ot money market account. The states purpose is to "help banks maintain reserve requirements". It didn't present me with any real problems, though, because a simple call to NFCU resolved it and a lady did the transaction over the phone for me.

That tax requirement for making $600 or more per year for internet sales? Yeah, that's ONLY possible because these things are all tracked electronically.

Crypto currency? Crypto currency might be "secure"? Well, maybe in the sense of "nobody else can get it because you hold the encryption keys to it" but not in the sense of traceability which is where the government can get you. It can be created, moved, and stored outside of government view...but the moment you actually conduct a transaction with it, you create a trail. And the government doesn't care that you can keep them from getting it...they only need to know you bought it, spent it, or received it as payment for something. That's data they can trace. If data exists that you received $10,000 dollars in payment value from any form of crypto-currency, then you can bet Uncle Sam will be digging into your pockets for it.


Bitcoin themselves has this to say on their webpage:

Bitcoin is often perceived as an anonymous payment network. But in reality, Bitcoin is probably the most transparent payment network in the world. At the same time, Bitcoin can provide acceptable levels of privacy when used correctly. Always remember that it is your responsibility to adopt good practices in order to protect your privacy.

Bitcoin works with an unprecedented level of transparency that most people are not used to dealing with. All Bitcoin transactions are public, traceable, and permanently stored in the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin addresses are the only information used to define where bitcoins are allocated and where they are sent. These addresses are created privately by each user's wallets. However, once addresses are used, they become tainted by the history of all transactions they are involved with. Anyone can see the balance and all transactions of any address. Since users usually have to reveal their identity in order to receive services or goods, Bitcoin addresses cannot remain fully anonymous. As the block chain is permanent, it's important to note that something not traceable currently may become trivial to trace in the future. For these reasons, Bitcoin addresses should only be used once and users must be careful not to disclose their addresses.



Government assistance programs? They've been electronic for quite a while.

Government pay in the form of direct deposit? What's that, over three decades now?


The government will definitely get to the point where they will start openly changing the laws towards migration to all digital currencies and transactions. It most assuredly tips the scales in their favor and, of course, the people MOST hurt by this will be those on the lower income level. This will even get to the point of eliminating hard currency so people will have no other choice. Working for tips and doing side jobs for money (lawn work, gardening, snow shoveling, and any other job out there) will ALL be tracked and taxed, which hurts those on the lower income level far more than anybody else.

Because, you know...paying taxes is a civic duty, don't you know, which is why, of course, the government makes it more difficult to move up with one's income by punishing you with progressively increasing the tax rates.

If anybody thinks it won't be done, remember that the government outlawed the owning of gold by citizens with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 (only jewelry and collector's coins were allowed). And yes, they did prosecute people for this. Frederick Barber Campbell was convicted under the GRA's predecessor, Executive Order 6102 of hoarding when he tried to withdraw 5,000 troy ounces of gold he had at Chase National Bank. A diamond an jewelry merchant arrested (with others) and for illegally selling $20 gold coins without a license. Foreign companies had gold confiscated, including a Swiss banking company which had $1.25 million in gold coins which were being held in the United States.
 
You're sly. 😁 Indeed, anyone who gives two bits about anonymity and privacy will greatly value the physical currency.

Which is why I think the value of it will be so high, albeit, on the black market. I honestly do believe they will outlaw physical currency, much like that SOB Roosevelt did with gold.

Even when we have digital currency, there will still be folks looking to purchase goods and services which are deemed “illegal”…. the buying, selling and distribution of drugs, pussy, you name it and folks will wish to do that trading independent of .gov intervention.

Buying gold and silver is a smart move, but putting back some paper currency and coins will pay divedends in the future…I’m certain of it.

I don’t spend any change I have/get back and I try squirrel away paper currency in small denominations….1s, 5s and 10s every so often.
 
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Well.... You can bet on pieces of paper with dead politicians on them to hold their value if you wish, but you have a 100% historical record of wipeout there.
I was asking on why not bet on fuel or items to hold value and not gold lol
 
I was asking on why not bet on fuel or items to hold value and not gold lol
Fuel and other commodities are great value retainers. Gold is sorta unique in that it is a commodity which also meets all the requisite requirements for money.

DO NOT hear me say that Gold or Silver are the only alternatives to the USD. I like them because they are long recognized as currency. I recommend fuel, food, skills, and a number of commodities. I also like cryptocurrencies, but I am a bit nervous about them.

I have to say that if I had a choice between large skill sets of useful trade skills (ESPECIALLY food production) and loads of gold silver and other commodities, I would definitely pick the skill sets. I am just too old to learn everything I would like to know.
 
Another thing to think about with cryptocurrency...

What the heck would happen to that part of the economy if we were hit with an EMP?
I was thinking this very thing last night. Too fragile to my way of thinking.

I know it would also impact the availability of my bank and investments, but at least with a bank they’ll have physical locked doors I can stand in front of and bang on.
 
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If you have crypto currencies, it might be a wise idea to write down the “keys” on a piece of paper. At least theoretically, you’d be able to restore them sometime after the fact that way.
 
Another thing to think about with cryptocurrency...

What the heck would happen to that part of the economy if we were hit with an EMP?

It's possible to back up a Bitcoin wallet "seed" to paper and survive that kind of thing. Yeah, crypto has its own set of vulnerabilities. But also unique strengths, like ease of securely sending large quantities to people you never have to meet, and physical security/storage is far less of a problem than gold.

Some people view crypto as competing with PMs, I think they are complementary. A single asset type won't be ideal in all circumstances, that's why we diversify.

I've been hesitant to get into crypto myself because of the crazy speculation around it, but that's a draw for some people too.
 
Just read up on EMP vs cryptocurrency.

It's definitely survivable as a currency during an EMP attack, because an EMP attack is generally going to be a targeted event instead of an all encompassing global event. Cryptocurrency ledgers are kept on every computer that is running a full node across the entire planet, which means the entire blockchain can be downloaded from a single device at any time it's accessible.

What worries me more, however, isn't an EMP attack. It's a coronal mass ejection from the sun crossing paths with our planet. This would produce a worldwide catastrophe that would wipe out everything our electrical/electronic systems are based on. Vehicles, computers, watches, refrigerators, etc.

The Carrington Event in 1859 was one such event. It was powerful enough to cause electrical shocks to telegraph operators, fires, and discharges which ignited telegraph paper. Several other events happened in the 20th century, even up into the 21st century.

If you go back in further times, in 1582 a coronal mass ejection caused an auroral storm documented to have reached 28.8 degrees lattitude in the northern hemisphere. That's only 28.8 degrees north of the equator, for those who don't remember longitude/lattitude stuff. Which means close to the same thing probably happened in the southern hemisphere. That pretty much runs through Mexico and the southern tip of Florida. Maybe the southern tip of Texas.

A CME could last long enough to cover the entire planet and pretty much the only thing electrical/electronic that might be left operable would be EMP hardened equipment and facilities. Maybe. Satellites, power grids, cell phones, cell towers, watches, freezers, portable generators in people's garages...all gone.
 
@RetiredUSNChief I thought you might find this interesting and it's related to the discussion in this thread. It's from the Forward Observer In Focus portion, which is subscription based, so I will only use a very small portion. The subject of the USD losing it's standing may be a real risk now. And yet, I can't help but look at all the moving pieces and think that this is part of the plan being enacted by the Star Chamber.

According to the influential Chinese think-tank, Russia has largely adapted to punitive Western sanctions following its seizure of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The think-tank also stated that cutting off Russia from the SWIFT international financial network will hurt Europe more than Russia as China will offer Russia entry into its Renminbi-based Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Several Western-European countries are discussing the possibility of leaving the U.S. dollar system in international markets over spiraling U.S. debt and inflationary pressure. The exit of Russia and potentially China from the dollar into CIPs could potentially take a number of other countries with them, resulting in de-dollarization in world financial markets.
 
And realistically, I think that this is just it. I think it's pretty clear that the days of the USD being king are numbered and it will likely become a junk currency. If the Russians and Chinese start using a system outside of this "SWIFT" thing due to the sanctions, there would be a real possibility of it being the end of oil being traded in dollars, which would pretty much doom the dollar.

I am not sure OPEC would go for that.... that would eff up their economies, too.

What's interesting is take out the theory and academics about the dollar...it's still used on almost every street corner in the world. Governments may not like it, but people do.
 
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