Black Swan for 2024

turkeydance

turkeydance

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read all about it:

CATHERINE HERRIDGE: Well, mine's a little dark. I just feel a lot of concern that 2024 may be the year of a black swan event.
This is a national security event with high impact that's very hard to predict. There are a number of concerns- concerns,
I have that factor into that. Not only this sort of enduring, heightened threat level, that we're facing, the wars in Israel, also Ukraine.

www.cbsnews.com

Full transcript: Correspondents roundtable on "Face the Nation," Dec. 24, 2023

Full transcript of the year-end CBS News correspondents roundtable that aired on Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, on "Face the Nation."
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
 
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In addition the the Doug Casey piece immediately ^upthread^ …

More (very) worthwhile reading:

The Path Forward​

Paul Martin
December 4, 2023

paultmartin.com

The Path Forward

I do not know what will happen in the next twelve months. But I want us to be prepared for whatever may be coming.
paultmartin.com paultmartin.com
 
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here's my 2024 "black swan-ish" prediction:
1. big market sell-off as it's way overbought right now
2. naval assets in red sea / mediterranean will unfortunately hit by a drone or some homemade trash weapon from the Houthis or other Shiite backed group in the region
3. #2 will hasten #1
4. credit lines will be cut and debt will finally need to be repaid, triggering drop in spending
5. between #1-#4, fed will cut interest rates
6. market will rebound from #5 but by end of 2024 we will have full blown stagflation
7. gold will go to $5k per ounce
 
i will play, too, regarding BS predictions.
as i understand it, BS cannot be foreseen.
so, here is some BS i cannot see happening:

1. nuclear bomb/missile detonation. accident or otherwise.
2. obvious and public contact with non-human intelligence (Life or AI).
3. Joe Flacco wins Super Bowl MVP.
 
turkeydance said:
i will play, too, regarding BS predictions.
as i understand it, BS cannot be foreseen.
so, here is some BS i cannot see happening:

1. nuclear bomb/missile detonation. accident or otherwise.
2. obvious and public contact with non-human intelligence (Life or AI).
3. Joe Flacco wins Super Bowl MVP.
Click to expand...
The first two would turn society upside down.
 
update.
quotes:

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950.
That may sound overly dramatic, but we believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war.

North Korea has a large nuclear arsenal, by our estimate of potentially 50 or 60 warheads deliverable on missiles that can reach all of South Korea, virtually all of Japan (including Okinawa) and Guam.
If, as we suspect, Kim has convinced himself that after decades of trying, there is no way to engage the United States, his recent words and actions point toward the prospects of a military solution using that arsenal.

If that comes to pass, even an eventual US-ROK victory in the ensuing war will be empty. The wreckage, boundless and bare, will stretch as far as the eye can see.

www.38north.org

Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War? - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950.…
www.38north.org
 
turkeydance said:
i will play, too, regarding BS predictions.
as i understand it, BS cannot be foreseen.
so, here is some BS i cannot see happening:

1. nuclear bomb/missile detonation. accident or otherwise.
2. obvious and public contact with non-human intelligence (Life or AI).
3. Joe Flacco wins Super Bowl MVP.
Click to expand...
#2 is already a given to anyone who is paying attention. The "authorities" may continue to deny but the evidence that has come to light in the past year is overwhelming.
 
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