This thing is wearing me out.
Fears of delayed manufacturing from China has the market in a tailspin.
ouch.
Fears of delayed manufacturing from China has the market in a tailspin.
ouch.
Coronavirus and investments
- Thread starter Tailhunter
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The media is over blowing it big time. The death rate is only 2% of those infected. That's less than the flu.
Ironic to say this in a thread about investing but I think you need to check your math. By my account Coronavirus is something like 60x more deadly than the flu.
Flu is well under .1%, and then pretty much only elderly or immune compromised. 2%, if it isn’t higher, and it’s hard to tell at this point, is way worse. And it seems to kill younger otherwise healthy people as well.
I am pretty sure that if 1 in 50 people you know who got the flu had been dying it wouldn’t seem like no big deal.
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OK my bad. I thought I remembered that from an article I read but I probably got cornfused.
I do remember seeing the death rate for coronavirus is 2% and it's way lower than any of the other diseases we've freaked out about in the past. 
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Fortunately most of my stuff is in long term investments. So I plan to just ride it out.
Google is telling me as of 2/25 there are 80k cases with 2700+ dead, with a death rate of about 3.5%
FWIW I think investors are right to expect business to be down over the next month or two.
This is spreading fast, it's scaring a lot of people, and due to quarantines it's effect on the economy is enormous compared to the size of the outbreak.
Also, consider that this is taking place in the realm of Google tracking everyone. If you caught the virus, they'll know where and when you've been and who else was there too. This whole thing is going to become a global-scale case study.
FWIW I think investors are right to expect business to be down over the next month or two.
This is spreading fast, it's scaring a lot of people, and due to quarantines it's effect on the economy is enormous compared to the size of the outbreak.
Also, consider that this is taking place in the realm of Google tracking everyone. If you caught the virus, they'll know where and when you've been and who else was there too. This whole thing is going to become a global-scale case study.
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The CDC issued a warning today to be prepared for an outbreak even planning on school closures and businesses developing a plans for working remotely....that sunk the market further but the CDC had to cover all the bases for that bureaucracy to stay relevant.
The MSM and the left would LUUUUUUV for the market to tank and stay tanked, especially near the election, if it had the slightest chance of hurting Trump in some way.
This is (I hope ) one of those cases where you just have to...
This is (I hope
) one of those cases where you just have to...
OP
Thats what my guy is telling me, ride it out.
but when I see the loses (just #’s on a chart) it makes me nervous.
he said “expect losses into the third quarter”.
but when I see the loses (just #’s on a chart) it makes me nervous.
he said “expect losses into the third quarter”.
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I am not sure how true but a nurse friend has been a little tense lately. She is not saying the sky is falling but she also questions a few things that I’m glad the media hasn’t been hitting on. She brought up the actual cases vs reported cases in China are likely different because of remote areas AND is China actually reporting them correctly or withholding information?
Years back she told me (not sure how true now) that flu shots are designed a year in advance for a select few strains of flu that are predicted to be most prevalent in the next season ... one shot don’t stop all ... and if they miss a new flu vaccine takes months to go from research to production to distribution for the general public. So unless there has been research on this particular strain AND a vaccine the medical research is behind the curve on this for months ... there’s no magic wand to wave to develop, test and make millions of doses of a vaccine much less cover the costs.
Again, she says common sense personal care is our best defense right now ... wash your hands, don’t touch your face, rub your eyes, etc and make sure to eat healthy as possible to health keep your own immune system up. Steer clear of groups unless necessary and if you are feeling ill stay away from others to protect them. If the media would spread this type thinking rather than the Chicken Little crap the panic would not be as much and it might actually help some people to not get sick ... but the headlines make ratings which is most important to them.
Years back she told me (not sure how true now) that flu shots are designed a year in advance for a select few strains of flu that are predicted to be most prevalent in the next season ... one shot don’t stop all ... and if they miss a new flu vaccine takes months to go from research to production to distribution for the general public. So unless there has been research on this particular strain AND a vaccine the medical research is behind the curve on this for months ... there’s no magic wand to wave to develop, test and make millions of doses of a vaccine much less cover the costs.
Again, she says common sense personal care is our best defense right now ... wash your hands, don’t touch your face, rub your eyes, etc and make sure to eat healthy as possible to health keep your own immune system up. Steer clear of groups unless necessary and if you are feeling ill stay away from others to protect them. If the media would spread this type thinking rather than the Chicken Little crap the panic would not be as much and it might actually help some people to not get sick ... but the headlines make ratings which is most important to them.
I don't trust China for as far as I could throw them..
They are liers, scammers, cheats and killers for the all mighty dollar.
They have under reported everything to save their economy.
They are liers, scammers, cheats and killers for the all mighty dollar.
They have under reported everything to save their economy.
QuietMan5150
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Definitely not the time to pull out of the market. Personally waiting for it to drop a bit more then I’ll start thinking of buying in. Should help offset losses when it rebounds.
This got scary once Italy and Iran were recognized as hotspots. Both governments are a mess and have no real mechanism to deal with it. Iran will lie as badly as China.
Of course my wife flew last week, I’m flying home tonight and my pre-teen daughter is on a 3 day field trip with her school.
Of course my wife flew last week, I’m flying home tonight and my pre-teen daughter is on a 3 day field trip with her school.
This... These 2 countries are potential jumping off points. Italy can flood all of Europe. Iran into the middle east.
The real problem with this virus is that it has the potential to kill the young and healthy and at the same time the infected do not always present with major symptoms. It can take 2-4 weeks to show signs of infection. These means that the virus has lots of exposure time before people are diagnosed. There does not seem to be a defined set of predictors of who it is going to kill and who is just going to have flu like symptoms.
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What do you think is gonna happen to the markets when NG troops are enforcing quarantines in cities and towns across America? We have a perfect setup for National Boogaloo event leftist style.
How many on this site think this was a plan attack? Think about how fast it has spread, over night in some places all around the world....and why not in South America or Africa? Is it because China has a lot of business going on there and it’s not been “released” in these areas?
Also on the Glenn beck show he has said a hospital outside ground zero is needing 100 body bags a day just to keep up with the dead.
Also on the Glenn beck show he has said a hospital outside ground zero is needing 100 body bags a day just to keep up with the dead.
drypowder
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The best estimate of the death rate is China ex-Hubei, where ~0.7% of confirmed cases die. But it is likely significantly lower than that because there haven't been any serologic surveys, so we don't know how many people have been infected and simply recovered at home without ever going to a doctor or hospital.
When the hospitals are overrun, like they were in Hubei, it's closer to 3% of confirmed cases.
As for the seemingly young and healthy dying, couple of things to consider. A number of the people in the 20-40 range who I've read about dying in China were healthcare workers in Hubei - even if they were healthy to begin with, they were overworked and they may not have had sufficient rest until the infection had become too entrenched to fight off. Another is China's high smoking rate, especially among men. And yet another is China's air quality in the big cities - otherwise healthy people may have been compromised by breathing that smog all day every day.
When the hospitals are overrun, like they were in Hubei, it's closer to 3% of confirmed cases.
As for the seemingly young and healthy dying, couple of things to consider. A number of the people in the 20-40 range who I've read about dying in China were healthcare workers in Hubei - even if they were healthy to begin with, they were overworked and they may not have had sufficient rest until the infection had become too entrenched to fight off. Another is China's high smoking rate, especially among men. And yet another is China's air quality in the big cities - otherwise healthy people may have been compromised by breathing that smog all day every day.
Umm, no. If anything, it would be great for China if the bug wiped out much of the native population in the African countries it's deeply involved with.
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Your age and investment income needs should dictate your anxieties. I’d say if you don’t need the invested money and you’re not retiring for long time, don’t even flinch.
buy low sell high, right? I’m not a financial advisor but I would be weary of panic dumping my investments while they are low unless I had no other option (medical bills, retirement etc).
Don’t forget that you didn’t “lose” anything (or gain for that matter). That is a value until you sell/liquidate it whatever the term is.
Houses are better intuitive analogy. Let’s say you purchased house for 500k and next year for whatever reason it’s valued at 300k. You did not lost 200k unless you sell it. If in 5 years its worth 600k. You didn’t “make” 100k....unless you sell it. It’s just panic.
we keep 50k in bank. That’s for worst case scenario, both dogs and kid all need surgical operations and our roof collapsed w/o having to be held hostage by the state of market at any given time. The rest goes elsewhere.
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death rate is not really the economic concern. Not directly anyway. Additionally larger portion of deaths are older, non-working aged patients. The economic impact is the result of containment efforts impacting world trade and regional industry shut downs.
drypowder
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+1 on not panic selling at this point. The time to panic is before everyone else does. But right now, <10% of S&P500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average. Historically, this is a terrible time to sell, at least in the very near-term. That's not to say mkt can't go lower - and in fact, if we start getting community transmission in the US, mkts will definitely go lower. But we'll likely see a bounce before that, so that would be a better exit point for someone who really wants to trim some exposure.
Throw North Korea in there also ... they are so secretive they are risking a major problem.
ETA ... I don’t know if I believe what Iran says but their numbers have been updated to 67 cases with 12 dead ... the highest fatality rates reported
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DrScaryGuy
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You know, people keep playing down the lethality... "oh, there are 80,000 cases and under 3000 died, it's not lethal"
But wait...
80,999 current confirmed cases according to Johns Hopkins.
Total recovered = 30,065
Total dead = 2,760
So the lethality of cases that have run their course is actually closer to 10%
If those numbers hold up, we can expect that of the 81,000 cases so far, we will have 8,100 deaths. And the cases are still increasing with new countries throwing out the alerts day by day.
If I wanted to frighten myself, I'd dwell on the fact that even though the lethality is MUCH lower than 10% outside of Hubei, that is easily attributable to the fact that Hubei medical has been overwhelmed, and their medical staff could probably be executed for abandoning post right now. Think... have you EVER gone to a hospital when they weren't understaffed for the number of people they had to care for? Since the vectors seem to still be a little up in the air, how many cases at your local hospital do you think it will take before people stop coming in to work? Orderlies/volunteers handling the vomit and diarrhea may be the first to call out, or catch it and join the infected list. They know they're not making enough to put their lives on the line. So your nurses and doctors are going to have to work to exhaustion (hello, weakened immune system) doing their jobs AND THE JOBS of the people who have quit coming into work. So now they catch it too. Suddenly you're incredibly understaffed and looking a lot like Hubei in the middle of an outbreak...
But wait...
80,999 current confirmed cases according to Johns Hopkins.
Total recovered = 30,065
Total dead = 2,760
So the lethality of cases that have run their course is actually closer to 10%
If those numbers hold up, we can expect that of the 81,000 cases so far, we will have 8,100 deaths. And the cases are still increasing with new countries throwing out the alerts day by day.
If I wanted to frighten myself, I'd dwell on the fact that even though the lethality is MUCH lower than 10% outside of Hubei, that is easily attributable to the fact that Hubei medical has been overwhelmed, and their medical staff could probably be executed for abandoning post right now. Think... have you EVER gone to a hospital when they weren't understaffed for the number of people they had to care for? Since the vectors seem to still be a little up in the air, how many cases at your local hospital do you think it will take before people stop coming in to work? Orderlies/volunteers handling the vomit and diarrhea may be the first to call out, or catch it and join the infected list. They know they're not making enough to put their lives on the line. So your nurses and doctors are going to have to work to exhaustion (hello, weakened immune system) doing their jobs AND THE JOBS of the people who have quit coming into work. So now they catch it too. Suddenly you're incredibly understaffed and looking a lot like Hubei in the middle of an outbreak...
I highly doubt it was planned. My bet is on the bio worker sneaking out some of the used test animals and selling them at the street market.
If it was planned, they would have brought it to another country and released it there first.
My thoughts anyway.
Gold was down with the stock market yesterday, but it has rebounded today as global markets fell significantly over night.
I don’t expect another down day, only because I don’t see a better place for the world to park cash in an economic crisis than in the US market.
I don’t expect another down day, only because I don’t see a better place for the world to park cash in an economic crisis than in the US market.
I actually added to a few positions yesterday and I'm watching closely today on a couple of others. Averaging down works quite well as long as the stock has a good foundation to begin with. This is 2008 all over again. I bought then and rode it out and did very well as the market came back.
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Already started blaming bad orange man with that he is not doing enough and not prepared dealing with COVID-19 to cause the sell off.
To be fair his administration has not replaced the pandemic specialist who resigned after Bolton’s appointment. They have been a bit slow on the response. They just approved emergency funding. They are a bit behind the curve.
As for the sellout it is a short term panic that will be a blip in the market if you are long term investing. If you are day trading or trading on margin it could be a issue.
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I heard on the radio this morning that there are aspects of the virus that are not found in nature. The guy said that's not saying that it had it's DNA was altered but that it sure is an oddity. That said I haven't heard much about Hong Kong lately have any of you?
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