My son and I were discussing the ammo supply outlook. He made a good point ... it seems a big percentage of the newer handguns sold recently seemed to be 9mm along with the recent trend of many law enforcement departments shifting to 9mm the demand even without panic buying and hoarding would likely have jumped bigtime anyway. All the crap coming together created “the perfect storm” especially for 9mm ... what will ammo manufacturers do in the future given they have a finite amount of production capability ... only so many hours in the day ... only so many machines and factory space to run product ... only so much supply of components (especially primers). I am fairly sure the production scheduling is done by bean counters who look at contracts, profits and such not necessarily at the sport’s trends and private citizen shooter’s best interests. I am thinking 2021 will likely see production scheduling increase for 9mm but at the cost of what other calibers? The rimfire line equipment and components are not really interchangeable with the centerfire line ... plus rimfire will always be in demand. What or who will the bean counters short the production of so they can fil government and military contracts? What old school shooters will be short scheduled ... like my .41mag? Am I now thinking which 1 or 2 I really need to sure up my stock on ... what say you guys?
Future Ammo Outlook ... Which Calibers Will Lose Production Time?
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fieldgrade
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What I hear from a major gun shop, is that it’s all about the primers.
And they all come from China, so I hear.
And they all come from China, so I hear.
Nope..........
In the U.S., only four companies (Winchester, Remington, Federal, and CCI) manufacture primers for civilian use, law enforcement, and the military.
Armscor in the Philippines,
Sellier & Bellot in the Czech Republic,
Fiocchi in Italy
JSC in Russia
Why Is There a Primer Supply Shortage? | Powder Valley
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I never expected to reliably find affordable .41 Mag & began reloading 'soon's I dove down that rabbit hole.
Same with the rest of my oddballs. With 6.8SPC, I was able to buy ~2K rds of various commercial ammo & then piled up enough powder, primers & projos to reload every piece of that brass at least twice. 'N when I buy something like a .357 Maximum, or more recently, a .41 Special, I will typically have dies & brass at home before the gun arrives.
Again, I'm just glad I stockpiled as much as I could & can ride these hiccups out for the most part. We're pretty okay on the common stuff for now & set up well for loading almost everything we shoot, if it comes to that. I could crank out 1K rds of 124gr 9mm tomorrow if I had to, but that day ain't here yet.
Same with the rest of my oddballs. With 6.8SPC, I was able to buy ~2K rds of various commercial ammo & then piled up enough powder, primers & projos to reload every piece of that brass at least twice. 'N when I buy something like a .357 Maximum, or more recently, a .41 Special, I will typically have dies & brass at home before the gun arrives.
Again, I'm just glad I stockpiled as much as I could & can ride these hiccups out for the most part. We're pretty okay on the common stuff for now & set up well for loading almost everything we shoot, if it comes to that. I could crank out 1K rds of 124gr 9mm tomorrow if I had to, but that day ain't here yet.
Yeah, I have a cabinet full of powder and decent primer stash (not for my liking now) along with cans full of brass but it’s for my common stuff but my lower volume stuff is a different thing. I doubt I have 100 .41mag cases or 50 .45Colt unlike the thing with some rifle loads like .260rem and others where I can resize parent cases I’m kinda SOL.
spittinfire
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Got any 243 brass?
How much and what mfr are you looking for?
I'm sure I have a couple hundred cases of Fed, Win & some mixed headstamp stuff. I've got a couple thousand new, 1x & 2x Starline that I use exclusively. Lemme dig through my stash & I'll PM you in a day or so with what exactly I have. I'll cut you a deal- us .41 weirdos gotta look out for one another.
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Also, Starline typically has a lot of that stuff in stock. I just bought 250 pcs of new .41 Special from 'em for $.50/ea, shipped. As long as I'm not beating up my gun, I'll easily get 10+ loadings out of each piece.
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I have a different view and hope I’m right.
1. IF LEO demand for 9mm was outpacing supply, why were we still able to buy all we wanted, at fire-sale prices, 10 months ago? I don’t think LEO demand increases is an ongoing issue.
2. I wonder how many “new gun owners” will actually be “shooters”. I hope few of them. If every one of those gun buyers bought a box or two of 9mm with their gun, that took countless millions of boxes out of the supply.
My hope is that the shortage, and consequential explosion in prices has been caused by those new gun buyers (buying their box or two) and “us” (buying everything we can get). Once everyone who wants a gun (and their box or two) has been satisfied, once “we” have filled our garages, I hope the manufacturers will find themselves without orders. Our friend at Outdoor Limited will find himself with a warehouse full of ammo and far fewer loyal customers.
I just don’t see how ammo demand and consumption is so different from toilet paper. There wasn’t a roll to be found until everyone had stocked their pantries. But (excuse the pun), consumption (not to be confused with demand) is finite. There are only so many bottoms to be cleaned in a day. You can buy all you want but you won’t use more than you did before the panic. Once the pantry is full and the supermarket shelves are too, things suddenly became “normal” again. All that happened was demand was “pulled forward”.
If we’ve all reduced the amount we shoot (I certainly have) and if the majority of new gun buyers aren’t shooters, the ammo makers are in for a surprise. One maker recently revealed a billion dollar backlog that would take a year to produce and ship. I‘ve been thru demand craziness in another industry. If it turns out for the ammo guys as it did for me, they’re gonna get a very unpleasant wake up call long before that year is up.
I think this situation will continue for several more months and then we’ll start to notice light at the end of the tunnel. Will 9mm go back to 15 cents? No, also because we’re gonna get hit with a HUGE tax increase on ammo. But, I predict we’ll be able to find it available and it won’t cost 60 or 70 cents a round.
Drunken rant over.
1. IF LEO demand for 9mm was outpacing supply, why were we still able to buy all we wanted, at fire-sale prices, 10 months ago? I don’t think LEO demand increases is an ongoing issue.
2. I wonder how many “new gun owners” will actually be “shooters”. I hope few of them. If every one of those gun buyers bought a box or two of 9mm with their gun, that took countless millions of boxes out of the supply.
My hope is that the shortage, and consequential explosion in prices has been caused by those new gun buyers (buying their box or two) and “us” (buying everything we can get). Once everyone who wants a gun (and their box or two) has been satisfied, once “we” have filled our garages, I hope the manufacturers will find themselves without orders. Our friend at Outdoor Limited will find himself with a warehouse full of ammo and far fewer loyal customers.
I just don’t see how ammo demand and consumption is so different from toilet paper. There wasn’t a roll to be found until everyone had stocked their pantries. But (excuse the pun), consumption (not to be confused with demand) is finite. There are only so many bottoms to be cleaned in a day. You can buy all you want but you won’t use more than you did before the panic. Once the pantry is full and the supermarket shelves are too, things suddenly became “normal” again. All that happened was demand was “pulled forward”.
If we’ve all reduced the amount we shoot (I certainly have) and if the majority of new gun buyers aren’t shooters, the ammo makers are in for a surprise. One maker recently revealed a billion dollar backlog that would take a year to produce and ship. I‘ve been thru demand craziness in another industry. If it turns out for the ammo guys as it did for me, they’re gonna get a very unpleasant wake up call long before that year is up.
I think this situation will continue for several more months and then we’ll start to notice light at the end of the tunnel. Will 9mm go back to 15 cents? No, also because we’re gonna get hit with a HUGE tax increase on ammo. But, I predict we’ll be able to find it available and it won’t cost 60 or 70 cents a round.
Drunken rant over.
I follow internet deal forums where people share links to in stock ammo and what I’m noticing is that .38 special and .357 mag seem to be restocked very infrequently compared to especially 9mm but even some others like 40 s&w.
I have noticed this too. I wonder if it has anything to do with revolvers not being in the conversation to be banned?
This is where primers in the US come from. You can put and * next to S&B because they stopped bringing in primers 2-3 years ago. They only brought them to market at the time because they had surplus production in Europe and we had a shortage here. They might start back up but my guess is that they can make more money selling complete ammo vs primers.
I believe that 45 ACP and 10mm are going to be the next round which will have major shortages. If and it is a big if the Dems get mag restrictions passed and you can only have, carry possess without registration a magazine with 10 rounds people what round are you going to pick. The capacity advantage of 9mm is gone. So mine as well make mine 10 45 ACP or 10mm. Under the last assault weapons ban the 1911 had a resurgence for the same reason. NATO and LEO moving back to 9mm recently has given 9mm economy of scale and I do not see that changing. 9mm will stay a dominate caliber but I can see the industry getting caught flat footed on 45 ACP.
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As a percentage of the guns out there being used in the commerical market they are a drop in the bucket. When you full public range and look at what people are shooting what percentage of them are shooting revolvers? I would estimate I see 1 in 30 maybe even 1 in 40.
My capacity advantage won't change with my 9mm because I will still be carrying my 12 and 15 round mags. If I have to shoot someone, mag capacity will be the least of my worries.
OK... So you are going to have any investigation into a defensive shooting start with you under arrest for a felony weapons charge? If they pass a national ban I would hope you would rethink that.
Well, I know rumors at gun shops are about as reliable as a $3 watch but when a distributor‘s rep is there and starts saying things I put a little more weight to it. The rep said they can’t get any shipping dates on hunting ammo ... he said the manufacturers are screwed with lack of components and with certain states COVID responses couldn’t run full out because of “social distancing” so it’s not lack of production machine capacity.
The big players are supposedly not scheduling runs of ammo hunting ammo now since the time from production line to store shelf would be after 95% of the seasons close. They are scheduling the high demand stuff which has the highest backlog. I use to stock up on my hunting stuff in February when it was after season sales and such ... but not this go round apparently.
Also he said the big box stores increased their orders thru the 2nd qtr by as much as 50% ... so guess who get shafted since they only order cases not pallets?
Another “what if” twist he pointed out was the amount of ammo that is actually imported and what if Slo Joe and the Ho actually ban importation of ammo as a side door gun control measure? Lose Aguila, PPU, Fiocchi or so on and think how that would cut supply.
The big players are supposedly not scheduling runs of ammo hunting ammo now since the time from production line to store shelf would be after 95% of the seasons close. They are scheduling the high demand stuff which has the highest backlog. I use to stock up on my hunting stuff in February when it was after season sales and such ... but not this go round apparently.
Also he said the big box stores increased their orders thru the 2nd qtr by as much as 50% ... so guess who get shafted since they only order cases not pallets?
Another “what if” twist he pointed out was the amount of ammo that is actually imported and what if Slo Joe and the Ho actually ban importation of ammo as a side door gun control measure? Lose Aguila, PPU, Fiocchi or so on and think how that would cut supply.
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I am not going to walk around town with a felony strapped to my belt. It has nothing to do with a master. If you want to use that red herring of an argument I would counter that you have already said that everytime you fill out a 4473 and when you gave your finger prints, mental health records and background to the local sheriff to get your CHP. Pound your chest all you want but using your own reasoning you are already a slave to "the master". Now roll over and he will throw you another bone.
I am not rollover. I am being pragmatic with the knowledge that me in prison over 5 more rounds is not a sound and reasonable choice for me. YMMV
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Those observations are all solid. I actually think and import ban will hurt more than the Dems taxing it. If there is a high tax the manufacturer is going to have to adjust pricing to keep it selling. It will be higher but the consumer will not absorb the entire brunt of the tax. It will be similar to the tarrifs on imported goods. Consumers did not eat all of it. If we get both all bets are off.
Oh well. I'll still carry what I carry now. Same as I do already when I go to 10 round states. They can KMA! By the way, I've yet to have anyone anywhere ask to see how many rounds I have.
I am glad you have continued the red herring and morphed it into the slippery slope. Carrying a gun is going to stay with the states. Under the current administration there will be no national carry or even national reciprocity. If I lived in a state that banned all carry I would most likely comply and then look to relocate. I do not however believe that the Feds are going to be able to get that done so it is a moot point. I also do not believe that they will be able to get it done in NC so really that turns your slippery slope right back into a red herring.
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Certainly I do and when I carry in those states I check the laws. The last thing I need if I use a gun in a defensive manner is to give LEO the opportunity to treat me like a criminal. My parents used to live in MD. When I went there I stopped on the VA side of the border and unloaded the pistol and put it in a locked case. The ammo went into another locked case. Both inside the trunk. I did not need a traffic stop to become a weapons charge. It was either don't visit my mother or lock the gun up. I used to often meet them in VA to avoid the hassle but sometimes I had to go to MD.
For me it would really come down to the fact that if I had to use the gun in a defensive shooting the first thing they are going to do is take my gun. If I am in a state with a limited mag capacity law and I have shot someone with a gun hold 15+ rounds I am now on the wrong side of the law. I am now working from a deficit. I am no longer a law abiding citizen who was defending themselves I am not someone from out of state breaking the law and most likely under arrest before they have addresses the shoot. That is not a place I want to be over 5+ more rounds. If you are ok with that I am cool with that. It is simply something I am not going to do. That however does not make me a slave to the state as you insinuated.
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Anyone else notice that the Remington primer skus are all getting delete and marked discontinued by Midway USA. I would guess they are either changing the packaging or absorbing the Remington brand into CCI/Federal.
Yes I did. Maybe you missed it.
If I lived in a state that banned all carry I would most likely comply and then look to relocate. I do not however believe that the Feds are going to be able to get that done so it is a moot point. I also do not believe that they will be able to get it done in NC so really that turns your slippery slope right back into a red herring.
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Buy guns now while your not a felon.
You know you are still using the slippery slope here. Those two things can be regulated at the Federal level. Concealed carry cannot. It has been and will continue to be left up to the states. They are not on the same legal level and therefore one the removal of bump stocks does not directly translate to the loss of concealed carry.
The slippery slope way of thinking does apply to magazine capacity because there is legal precedent for the Federal Govt to enact such legislation.
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To the OP sorry about the drift. I will let it go. I think that any legislation that the anti-gun left wants to put forward needs to be fought vigorously. We need to stop it before it becomes law. If it becomes law we need to use the courts to overturn it. I think 9mm will be the major caliber in short supply but as I stated before I think legislation could change that. YMMV
Because there is no ammo 😂
spittinfire
Well-Known Member
50-100 pieces and not really partial to a manufacturer.