How Long is the Ammo Shortage Going to Last?

Discussion in 'Firearm Accessories Talk' started by wvsig, Jul 21, 2020.

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How long will the 2020 Ammo Shortage Last

  1. 0-3 More months

    8 vote(s)
    11.6%
  2. 6-9 Months

    17 vote(s)
    24.6%
  3. 9-12 Months

    10 vote(s)
    14.5%
  4. 12-18 Months

    15 vote(s)
    21.7%
  5. 18 to 24 Months

    9 vote(s)
    13.0%
  6. More than 24 Months

    10 vote(s)
    14.5%
  1. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    So we experiencing a huge run on ammo. It is a perfect storm of increased demand due to political, economic factors and COVID-19. With COVID -19 has hit raw material production and ammo production facilities. The transportation industry is getting killed. Add to that we have toss up election in 119 days.

    So how long do you think the ammo shortage is going to continue? I am interested to hear the factors that lead to your choice. I am also interested at what price you will get back into the market at. Since 9mm seems to be the hardest hit what per round price is your current buy it now price in the current environment.

    For me I think somewhere between $.20 and $.25 is the current buy it number where is used to be $.15-$.18.
     
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  2. BigWaylon

    BigWaylon Head philatelist Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    I was gonna vote 4-5 months...but wasn’t able to. :(
     
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  3. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    Why do you think it will last that long?
     
  4. NCFubar

    NCFubar Well-Known Member

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    Thru the election in November I do not see it getting better ... the left will continue all its civil unrest tactics. After that I don’t see people relaxing either way the election results go until at least a few months after the January political “reload” in the House, Senate and whatever happens in the White House. I say March at the earliest ...9 months plus.
     
  5. BigWaylon

    BigWaylon Head philatelist Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Because I wasn’t able to choose it. :p

    but that also takes us through the election right up to the end of the year
     
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  6. easternnc4me

    easternnc4me Happy to be here Benefactor

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    The last one started late 2013 until 2015. I think the current one will last as long as the previous one. I'd guess 12-18 months.
     
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  7. TSConver

    TSConver Active Member Supporting Member Vendor

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    Will depend on the election and Covid. If dems win election it will get worse real fast.
     
  8. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    I figured as much. LOL
     
  9. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    The more I think about it the production side will be a major factor. At 100% capacity manufacturers would not be able to meet the current demand. Even if demand slows at reduced raw goods production and manufacturing the industry will still be behind the curve until COVID is gone.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  10. HMP

    HMP Well-Known Member Supporting Member

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    The 'run' will die down, things will chill out a bit.

    I think in May and June, when we started seeing all the violence happen, people got scared, people who had never really thought of a gun before.
    So they bought, and they bought some ammo too.
    People will get back to work (ammo factories) and things will chill out in a few months.
    Im thinking by the end of the year we'll be back into fairly normal territory. Maybe not January pricing, but plenty on the shelves etc
     
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  11. fieldgrade

    fieldgrade resident crank Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Regardless of the election results, and regardless of Covid, if domestic terrorism continues in the news, particularly if it remains largely unchecked by the authorities, the sale of guns and ammo will remain unprecedented.
     
  12. RedneckFur

    RedneckFur Smith & Wesson is a religion of peace. Supporting Member

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    I'm not going to hold my breath, but I see this continuing at least through January. Depending on how the riots go, I could see it lasting a lot longer.
     
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  13. Johnboy

    Johnboy YES DEAR HOW HIGH? Charter Life Member

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    I see it lasting 12-18 months. As has been said, the election will be the biggest factor. However the ammunition factories will take months to ramp back up along with all the raw components. It will take time. I figure the normal when (if) Trump wins the election and the market settles will be .20 to .25 cents a round of 9 mm. 22 will be probably .06 cents a round. This will take at least a year to get to stocking levels in stores. All bets are off if Biden wins.
     
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  14. SPST

    SPST Member

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    If Biden wins, the price will be $x per round plus 50% sales tax!
     
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  15. Windini

    Windini SWDD Charter Life Member

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    Another sham election!!

    I vot... guessed 9-12 months. That will get us through the election and give both society and manufacturing time to settle a bit, stabilizing prices. Kinda like the stock markets - uncertainty creates volatility; stability engenders stability. Whichever way the elections go, Wall Street seems to get edgy the last months prior to a Presidential election, but settles down afterward no matter who wins.

    How long that stability will last is an open question.
     
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  16. TSConver

    TSConver Active Member Supporting Member Vendor

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    Many do not realize the run on guns started in March as soon as the stay at home orders started popping up. The recent riots and such just got the normal gun owners out looking and realizing the situation.
     
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  17. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    It has been hot and heavy even before then. Went from steady numbers to bonkers in terms of gun sales. I was still buying ammo at ok prices in March but by April everything was gone.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  18. Bunsen

    Bunsen ACME Labs

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    I'm going to be the pessimist of the bunch and vote 18-2 months IF Trump wins reelection and COVID runs it's course by Fall 2021.

    If Biden "wins".....I'm not sure we will ever see pre-panic/pandemic levels again.
     
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  19. THE PUNISHER

    THE PUNISHER Member

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    If we end the welfare state.....tomorrow?
     
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  20. JBoyette

    JBoyette Well-Known Member

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    March 2021 we will see relief.
     
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  21. Millie

    Millie Get on with your life!!! Supporting Member

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    I also voted 18-24 months.....things may even out a bit here and there for a bit, but I think it will be at least 18 months before things settle for real.

    Guess I'm a pessimist too.:rolleyes:

    I would be real happy to see 9mm at 25cents a round! LOL.
     
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  22. IUHoosier429

    IUHoosier429 Bull(et) City Charter Member Benefactor Supporting Member

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    I chose "6-9 Months" with the presumption that Trump will be re-elected and COVID will be better under control, or at least better understood.

    Here's to hoping, anyway.

    For me, 9mm thankfully is the only caliber in my stash I've had to scale back on shooting. In the meantime I've been able to locally trade some deeper stacked steel .223 and 7.62x39 round for round for brass 9mm. I'm confident/hopeful I can keep doing that if need be and not diminish the amount of 9mm I practice with by too much.

    Not really shopping for or chasing it while it's in stock for a few minutes here and there, but if I could find a case I'd probably spend up to about $275 for brass cased stuff, and wouldn't be too picky at this point over bullet weight.
     
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  23. JimP42

    JimP42 Mostly harmless Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    I don't have an ammo shortage.

    Seriously - there is ALWAYS another shortage coming at some random time in the future. An election, a school shooting, unrest, whatever. For the last year or so up to the run, prices had been the best I have seen in many years for ammo (although not great for components). Unless you are a new gun owner or completely broke, there is really no reason to be short now. You can always wait for a better price, but if you do you won't get anything. If the prices last winter didn't convince you to lay in a decent supply I don't know what would. If your priority is to have ammo when you need it, act on it. And when there is a good opportunity, REALLY act on it.

    I hope I am preaching to the choir here.

    And I voted for 6-9 months, being an optimist that Trump will win and thing will calm down after an initial explosion of protests November 4th and following. If Biden/whoever wins, it will last until the Supreme court disallows the ensuing ammo bans/taxes, if they disallow them at all.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
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  24. BlackGun

    BlackGun Pimpin Ain’t Easy Supporting Member

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    Never bought any steel case. Had some given to me with a gun purchase. Being a snob is out the door now. I have no need to for any if I don’t shoot regularly except 308 which I rarely shot. Still have about 1000 rounds of it. I’d like to get to 5000 rounds of it.
     
  25. DogGun

    DogGun New Member

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    Too much uncertainty to even try to predict. It's a crap shoot. IF and WHEN everything goes back to pre-COVID.
    Optimistically -- Trump wins, 6-9 months.
    Biden wins . . .people are preparing for the worst.
     
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  26. Jayne

    Jayne Just here for the memes Charter Member Supporting Member

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    How long did it last when obummer won? Take that, multiply by 1.5x (new owners, people waking up from getting screwed by panics again and again learning their lesson, etc) add it to the end of November and there ya go.

    So... 12-18 months?
     
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  27. REELDOC

    REELDOC EYES OPEN, NO FEAR Benefactor Supporting Member

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    will never end
     
  28. Have gun-will travel

    Have gun-will travel Member Supporting Member

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    Is it just ammo? I went into a small Local gun shop last week and they had more ammo than guns.22,45,380, 44mag,45 colt .No 9mm or 223. The walls where the rifles and shotguns hang were completely bare. Pistol cases were empty except for a single $700+ 1911. I did buy a remora holster for my Sig P938 ,also fits my P365. I'm on the way in a few to get another 1000 rounds of 7.62x39 $299 per 1000. saw a guy on site asking $399 for same ammo . Gotta save where I can:rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2020
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  29. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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  30. BatteryOaksBilly

    BatteryOaksBilly A SHOOTER Benefactor Life Member Supporting Member

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    I sold a ton of .40 and .45 ammo Sunday. I made more from that sale % wise than Any firearm I have Ever sold. I wasn't going to live long enough to shoot it all....really.
     
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  31. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    I almost sold some NATO 9mm to fund a Langdon Tactical Beretta with the trigger job but it sold before I could list the ammo. LOL
     
  32. fieldgrade

    fieldgrade resident crank Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    I need to buy another .45 for the .45 ammo I have.
    I’ve only got one, and I don’t think I’ll be carrying that boat anchor.
    Maybe a nice alloy framed officer?
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2020
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  33. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    I like the way you think. I would personally look at a CCO.
     
  34. fieldgrade

    fieldgrade resident crank Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Dan Wesson TCP, if anything.
     
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  35. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  36. Button Pusher

    Button Pusher Well-Known Member Benefactor Supporting Member

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    Once the factories are back to full production should get back to normal unless they were considered essential and have not decreased production.
     
  37. wvsig

    wvsig Well-Known Member

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    One would hope! I am looking for way to hedge my bets.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2020
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  38. Aardvark

    Aardvark Mostly Peaceful Protester Supporting Member

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    Late 2021.
     
  39. Elenaidan

    Elenaidan Flannel Mafia Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    What Shortage?
     
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  40. Millie

    Millie Get on with your life!!! Supporting Member

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    I guess we know who has the goods now, don't we?
     
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