How Long is the Ammo Shortage Going to Last?

[DrScaryGuy]

LOL what price in stock makes you hit buy it now?

i'll let you know when i actually find any.
at this point, 25c would get me to by a thousand without thinking twice. give me another couple days looking and i'll be at 30c.
I was hammering the refresh button for the last few days for the odd box that would pop up at 22c and couldn't catch any.
I plan to check my stock again today and i may reassess...

 

[georgel]

So based on the Natchez sale on 115Gr Blaser Brass last night $299 +shipping and tax seems to be the buy it now price for ammo these days. Is anyone seeing anything lower that is actually in stock and ships?

Actually, i think .30 cents a round is just a little below average these days. If you find any at all.

 

[wvsig]

Actually, i think .30 cents a round is just a little below average these days. If you find any at all.

I would say $.30 is on the lower end but it seems to be the everyone piles in number. When a deal for a case of 9mm is posted these days it takes all of 30 minutes or less for it to be out of stock. The ammo priced at $45 and above in the normal retail chains seems to sit.

 

[Jeppo]

The ammo priced at $45 and above in the normal retail chains seems to sit.

Until it all hit the fan, Outdoor Limited was the go-to supplier for many of us; particularly those who could will call at their warehouse. Other than some crazy online deals, most of what I bought was from them.

After being completely wiped out, he suddenly had a significant quantity of 9mm/115gr ball. It was gobbled up in a few days at 50 cents per round.

 

[pirate]

I hadn't noticed there was a shortage......don't need to buy I guess.

 

[wvsig]

Until it all hit the fan, Outdoor Limited was the go-to supplier for many of us; particularly those who could will call at their warehouse. Other than some crazy online deals, most of what I bought was from them.

After being completely wiped out, he suddenly had a significant quantity of 9mm/115gr ball. It was gobbled up in a few days at 50 cents per round.

Yeah I think that was a matter of proximity. People bought everything they could locally because there was nothing available online. Bird in the hand etc... It seems to me that the $.50 9mm stays in stock where $.30-$.40 flies off the shelf. One of my go to 1911 dealers has been getting pallets of Speed Lawman and sells out in less than an hour at $325-$375 + shipping.

 

[wvsig]

I hadn't noticed there was a shortage......don't need to buy I guess.

I don't need to buy either but I am still watching it. As others have said to me at some point I am going to shoot what I have and am going to have to buy back in. I am also a fan of dollar cost averaging my ammo buying. Keep buying at a reasonable pace and it evens out in the end and you never find yourself completely depleted.

 

[wvsig]

LMAO. The new stay of the shelf for a couple hours price is now $550 a case or $.55 a round + Shipping and Tax for brass cased 9mm range ammo. I am going to guess by the end of Nov we will be close to $.75 a round for standard 9mm range fodder.

 

[Jayne]

People who voted 6-9 months had best be getting worried as we move into month 4 with conditions still worsening.

 

[Hammer12b]

Well, we have 3 things that are driving this train, 1. COVID-19. Production has slowed to a slow crawl with no sign of coming back to normal, especially in D states before the election. B) The Election. People are scared that Hiden Biden and the whore might cheat enough to actually win! They are stocking up at any price if they have the means. People are also buying and reselling at a huge increase. 3. The riots, both ANTIFA and BLM, which is actually the same. Especially if you live in those effected area’s you’ll want all you can get. These 3 things also just boil down to 1 thing...the Left! It will get worse, especially if Trump wins! The left will loose its mind and they will fullbore try to Impeach him again, while the riots will go full speed towards a Civil or race war. The left will not accept another defeat! If your waiting to stock up AFTER the SHTF, you’ve waited too long!

 

[Goofyfoot2001]

Well, we have 3 things that are driving this train, 1. COVID-19. Production has slowed to a slow crawl with no sign of coming back to normal, especially in D states before the election. B) The Election. People are scared that Hiden Biden and the whore might cheat enough to actually win! They are stocking up at any price if they have the means. People are also buying and reselling at a huge increase. 3. The riots, both ANTIFA and BLM, which is actually the same. Especially if you live in those effected area’s you’ll want all you can get. These 3 things also just boil down to 1 thing...the Left! It will get worse, especially if Trump wins! The left will loose its mind and they will fullbore try to Impeach him again, while the riots will go full speed towards a Civil or race war. The left will not accept another defeat! If your waiting to stock up AFTER the SHTF, you’ve waited too long!

OSOK

 

[wvsig]

People who voted 6-9 months had best be getting worried as we move into month 4 with conditions still worsening.

I think we are actually going on 7 months right now. The last good deal I got on 9mm ammo was back in Mar. $.16 a round after a rebate and was lucky to find that. Within 2 weeks of that purchase everything was gone and prices started to skyrocket.

 

[wvsig]

Well, we have 3 things that are driving this train, 1. COVID-19. Production has slowed to a slow crawl with no sign of coming back to normal, especially in D states before the election. B) The Election. People are scared that Hiden Biden and the whore might cheat enough to actually win! They are stocking up at any price if they have the means. People are also buying and reselling at a huge increase. 3. The riots, both ANTIFA and BLM, which is actually the same. Especially if you live in those effected area’s you’ll want all you can get. These 3 things also just boil down to 1 thing...the Left! It will get worse, especially if Trump wins! The left will loose its mind and they will fullbore try to Impeach him again, while the riots will go full speed towards a Civil or race war. The left will not accept another defeat! If your waiting to stock up AFTER the SHTF, you’ve waited too long!

It is my understanding production is running 24/7 and that production was slowed by raw materials not the plants inability to run due to COVID-19.

Even in the worst of areas of civil unrest I have not seen anything that could not be settled with an AR15 and a couple of mags. The idea that I need a stock pile of ammo to survive civil unrest is a red herring to me.

Personally I think that there are going to be problems no matter who wins the election a full out civil war however is not one I foresee. YMMV

 

[Hammer12b]

It is my understanding production is running 24/7 and that production was slowed by raw materials not the plants inability to run due to COVID-19.

Even in the worst of areas of civil unrest I have not seen anything that could not be settled with an AR15 and a couple of mags. The idea that I need a stock pile of ammo to survive civil unrest is a red herring to me.

Personally I think that there are going to be problems no matter who wins the election a full out civil war however is not one I foresee. YMMV

I’m just saying that the Left doesn’t care about a war. They’re like the Chinese in that respect. Whatever keeps them in power is what it takes. If they lose a million people to stay in power, they don’t care. The ends justify the means. I don’t see an all out war but many small ones in areas that could effect change. People will give up rights to be safe in the cities and I wouldn’t put it past the D’s to use that for a chance to take rights away.

 

[45/70fan]

I've heard a from a couple of gun shop owners that manufacturers are saying 12 months (assuming a Trump win) to have shelves fully restocked. Another 12 months for prices to come back down.

 

[georgel]

It is my understanding production is running 24/7 and that production was slowed by raw materials not the plants inability to run due to COVID-19.

Even in the worst of areas of civil unrest I have not seen anything that could not be settled with an AR15 and a couple of mags. The idea that I need a stock pile of ammo to survive civil unrest is a red herring to me.

Personally I think that there are going to be problems no matter who wins the election a full out civil war however is not one I foresee. YMMV

I've heard a from a couple of gun shop owners that manufacturers are saying 12 months (assuming a Trump win) to have shelves fully restocked. Another 12 months for prices to come back down.

There's the thing, time. A brief period if civil unrest in the cities and things return to "normal", sure, no problem. An extended period period of unrest, a shift to guerilla tactics outside city centers, changing political climate and the potential for little or no more re-supply changes the equation. The above 12 month estimate is the same I've heard from others in the business and that's the good case scenario. How about 24 months or even 48 months at the current level of availability?

Just sayin'

 

[Jayne]

It will get worse, especially if Trump wins! The left will loose its mind and they will fullbore try to Impeach him again, while the riots will go full speed towards a Civil or race war.

I'm going to disagree there. If Trump wins, yes there will be some trouble but it's going to be in the same places it's been now and provide the same effect, ie nothing. None of the elites have been impacted at all by the rioting, so more of that won't change anything except give them more reason to crack down on those crazy gun owners later.

That said, there will be a TON more political crap that goes on if he wins, they'll try to impeach, or contest, or throw whatever tantrums they can, but that won't lead to a shooting war, just lots of back room deals and nonsense that will hurt us in the long run but it won't be violent. We'll loose but won't know how.

If Trump looses, then the violence will stop. The left will have won, and the right... well who is there to get violent at? I think we're a bit smarter in knowing that shooting some random people on the street in some 'race war' or burning down some businesses won't bring about any positive change, and will in fact accelerate the .gov response to crack down on the right.

Having that last case of 556 isn't going to change or influence the future in any way. Grabbing that $1/round stuff is just going to ensure your future range trips are expensive.

 

[Leadchunker]

Probably never go below .25 a round. Too much profit realized to reduce the margin. Customers are willing to pay the price.
If the dems win it’s going to go downhill even more. All gun related items will be unobtainable. If you want to shoot get components and learn to reload.
If trump wins it will have a correction to some extent. Deals will be found as the major panic decreases.
Thinking ahead to the next election, assuming trump wins, things will be on a scale that makes the here and now look like child’s play. The dems will be on a krystal nacht take over scheme, Korea, Iran, and some other of crap hole nations will have long range nukes. Lots of things to look forward to. IMHO
I voted for the longest timeframe.

 

[georgel]

It's all going to be moot when the asteroid strikes and the aliens come.

 

[NCWalrus]

It's all going to be moot when the asteroid strikes and the aliens come.

+1 to you sir

 

[fieldgrade]

It's all going to be moot when the asteroid strikes and the aliens come.

We even had a name for the asteroid back in 2008.

SMOD

(*sweet mother of death)

 

[Daryl Turner]

The good times may be over for good. If people have seriously learned nothing about how things just dry up over night. When .22lr dried up it took three years to get back to anywhere near normal.

 

[NCWalrus]

I hope and pray the primers start to return in reasonable time.

 

[Daryl Turner]

If Biden and Harris win and put Bino in charge of gun laws this mess will not see relief.

 

[wmg819]

It's all going to be moot when the asteroid strikes and the aliens come.

Oh, great: NASA says an asteroid is headed our way right before Election Day

Well, 2020 just keeps getting better all the time.

www.cnn.com

(CNN)Well, 2020 keeps getting better all the time.
Amid a pandemic, civil unrest and a divisive US election season, we now have an asteroid zooming toward us.
On the day before the presidential vote, no less.
Yep. The celestial object known as 2018VP1 is projected to come close to Earth on November 2, according to the Center for Near Earth Objects Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It was first identified at Palomar Observatory in California in 2018

 

[georgel]

Oh, great: NASA says an asteroid is headed our way right before Election Day

Well, 2020 just keeps getting better all the time.

www.cnn.com

(CNN)Well, 2020 keeps getting better all the time.
Amid a pandemic, civil unrest and a divisive US election season, we now have an asteroid zooming toward us.
On the day before the presidential vote, no less.
Yep. The celestial object known as 2018VP1 is projected to come close to Earth on November 2, according to the Center for Near Earth Objects Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It was first identified at Palomar Observatory in California in 2018

You think I was kidding...

The Pentagon has created a task force to investigate UFOs following several unexplained incidents that have been observed by the U.S. military.

Pentagon launches task force to investigate 'unidentified aerial phenomena'

The Pentagon announced Friday that it has established a new task force to investigate reports of "unidentified aerial phenomenon" following several incidents that have been observed by the U.S. military.

www.foxnews.com

 

[jimmyjames8]

Somebody probably already said this but the ammo shortage will last as long as people keep paying 2X what the price was a year ago.

 

[Daryl Turner]

Just like the TP shortage.

 

[Stick]

My most recent experience with the ol’ whining left was hearing every single Democrat refused to attend ACB’s vote-in.

It really makes me chuckle seeing just how unbelievably childish it is. It reminds of when I used to do the same shit when I was 5 years old if I didn’t like what my mom cooked for dinner (which was never, I was a fat kid lol).

Since Trump was elected, it has been nothing but bitching and nonstop moaning from the left. Trying to impeach him, “scandals”, “le Orange Man BAD!!1!1!1!” It just gets old.

I voted Bernie in the primaries, didn’t vote in the actual elections but at that time, I was a straight lefty. It wasn’t until about 3 years ago when the left said Trump “mocked a disabled reporter” did I start going “wait a minute....” all I saw on the news for weeks was the same story.

It took me a 3 second google search to see that hey, no, he didn’t mock a disabled reporter. If they lied about that, what else did they lie about?

And that’s the story of how I got my concealed carry permit lol

Welcome. We have cookies

 

[Stick]

Somebody probably already said this but the ammo shortage will last as long as people keep paying 2X what the price was a year ago.

This^^^. It's not that much of a shortage, the ammo is out there if you are willing to pay the price.

 

[CZfool68]

I just looked in a couple of my closets. I am calling BS. There is no ammo shortage. I see plenty.

 

[Daryl Turner]

Remember the guys standing at Walmart waiting for truck shipments so they can resell ammo to mom n pop shops.

 

[MostWanted]

In 2017 and 2018 I was buying a case every time I got an email from somebody. Then I stopped, thinking, "this is stupid, I will be 200 years old before I shoot all this". So I stopped buying, but I did give some to family members and of course, I shot some. After my son went to college in August, I had time and the space in the house to gather everything up and do a complete inventory. I was disappointed to find that I didn't have as much .223 as I thought I did. It's still enough to last me for a few years. But even though I have twenty times what I did post-Sandy Hook, I don't want to shoot any of it because it's difficult to replenish. I guess that would be true even if I had twice what's in my house.

 

[BlackGun]

They can’t even meet demand for 9mm much less any other calibers. They aren’t going to produce much of any other calibers switching lines and labor. Military, police, and national guard over pays for everything and they will get first shot at any caliber they use. These organizations are still qualifying and training.

When it comes to ammo there is never enough. Who knows what is the number if post election the idiots come out and want to hurt people for fun like Portland, Seattle, Chicago, and beautiful Durham.

 

[Ikarus1]

Remember the guys standing at Walmart waiting for truck shipments so they can resell ammo to mom n pop shops.

considering Walmart no longer sells 9mm and many other 'short rifle' aka 'military' calibers, I don't they even come into play. But their ammo case is still dry in every one I see nowadays. I cleaned the CCI 22 out of mine back in May

 

[wvsig]

Somebody probably already said this but the ammo shortage will last as long as people keep paying 2X what the price was a year ago.

I think most people would be ok with buying 9mm at $340 - $350 which is 2x what it was a year ago. These days the going rate is closer to $500.

 

[Daryl Turner]

considering Walmart no longer sells 9mm and many other 'short rifle' aka 'military' calibers, I don't they even come into play. But their ammo case is still dry in every one I see nowadays. I cleaned the CCI 22 out of mine back in May

The problem wasn't 9mm. It was .22 which they were buying up before it was put on the shelves giving others an opportunity to buy. This brought on a two year shortage and price gouging.

 

[wvsig]

The problem wasn't 9mm. It was .22 which they were buying up before it was put on the shelves giving others an opportunity to buy. This brought on a two year shortage and price gouging.

From what I hear the same thing is happening now with 9mm. Walmart comes into play here because they were a major seller and they did not raise their prices during the 22LR drought the same way other people did. These days is seems like Academy and Bass Pro are the brick and mortar retailers holding prices close to the pre panic pricing. They line up at Academy to buy the limit. They know what day the trucks deliver ammo to stores in their area. A lot of the time it lasts only few hours even with the limits.

Online stuff priced under $400 is gone fast. Stuff that ends up being $.60 a round with shipping and taxes gets sold in 4-8 hours. People like Outdoor Limited and SG Ammo are selling stuff for $.80 a round.

 

[Pogue]

Academy in RH is sold out of pretty much everything including hunting ammo, with the exception of a ton of 5.56. Like four shelves 5’ wide full of it. I was kinda shocked. (And disappointed since my 3 year old AR is still a stripped lower 🤣)

 

[wvsig]

Academy in RH is sold out of pretty much everything including hunting ammo, with the exception of a ton of 5.56. Like four shelves 5’ wide full of it. I was kinda shocked. (And disappointed since my 3 year old AR is still a stripped lower 🤣)

What was the pricing like?