How will the Russian ammo ban affect x39 guns?

Will drying up ammo make gun prices go:

  • Lower(less available ammo, less desire, higher supply)

    Votes: 5 25.0%

  • Higher(less available ammo, less production, lower supply)

    Votes: 10 50.0%

  • No change

    Votes: 5 25.0%
  • Total voters
    20
pinkbunny

pinkbunny

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What do yall think?
Will this kill the x39 market?
Cause a change in common caliber to 223?
Make prices plunge as no one wants a gun they can't shoot?
Make prices increase, as less are imported/made?
 
temp thing, but Ak’s are sitting so prices on guns will continue to drop. Ammo will come back down just like @Scrubber3 said.
Right now also anything that’s sells below .40 are just being bought by flippers. Once they can’t sell it, the prices start to drop. So unless you are completely out, don’t worry.
 
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Scrubber3 said:
I think once people realize that the ban doesn't concern already established ammo suppliers (tula, wolf, etc), things will calm down. Russian ammo ain't going anywhere. That won't stop some folks from raising prices and causing a panic though.
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I was told that this wasn’t true. That existing suppliers are able to fulfill the quantities on their outstanding permits, but after that, nada.

Heard it on the internet, so…
 
I think in the short term prices for AK guns will go down. People heavily invested in the platforms will buy up ammo driving up the cost and creating and feeding panic. If the bans stick it won't just be ammo that stops flowing into the country. AK rifles and pistols will stop being imported. Why import something no one is buying. This will in the long run make the AK platforms in country more valuable but there is no new flow of surplus.

It might take a while for prices to go back up. I am considering punting one of my 3 AK rifles before it gets too bad. If I don't sell in the short term I will be in for the long game. It really depends on availability. People did not stop buying 9mm handguns when 9mm ammo was $700 a case. If there is ammo to be had then people will continue to buy AKs long term.

JimB said:
I was told that this wasn’t true. That existing suppliers are able to fulfill the quantities on their outstanding permits, but after that, nada.

Heard it on the internet, so…
Click to expand...

The existing permits last 2 years from the date of approval. As it stands now they will not be renewed. We have Biden for another 3 years so by the last year of his term there will be no Russian ammo coming in. What we do not know is if there is really anyone who can pick up the slack. Will tooling and production get moved to a more "friendly" state? Will the Russians manufacture it and send it somewhere to be repackaged? Will someone else like Belom & PPU step up. I think in the long run there will be 762 ammo. It is too large a market to ignore but it will never be as cheap as it was from Russia.

No one seems to be able to answer if after Biden there is a Pro gun President can that pro-gun President make this go away. If that is the case then this will be a 3-4 year drought and then steel cased ammo will flow again. IMHO
 
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Guns down, ammo up, that's the way we like to...


Wait, wrong thread.

Same thing that happened when ultra-cheap 5.45 and 7.62x25 went away. The reason people bought those was for the dirt cheap ammo. Once there's no dirt cheap ammo the guns are less valuable.
 
wvsig said:
The existing permits last 2 years from the date of approval.
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Okay, but do you know when they were last approved? Could have been 22 months ago, right?
 
JimB said:
Okay, but do you know when they were last approved? Could have been 22 months ago, right?
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Right which is the best case scenario and it will still run out before Biden leaves office.
 
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There's a lot of fear and uncertainty about the future of gun culture as a whole, not just w.r.t AKs and x39. I think any ammo import shenanigans will just fan the flames in general. I'm holding on to a Saiga SGL-21 like it's my retirement fund.
 
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It'll be just fine the Worst it'll get is Same Price as 556

The main reason why people were into AK is because of Cheap Ammo... Now Ammo isn't going to be AS cheap as before. That's all
 
Back in 94 me and a friend taking about the Chinese ammo ban.
Me: They say ammo going to get up to.15 -. 20 a rd or higher.
Dave (RIP) : Maybe for a little while, but it will come back down. In 10-15 years it may be .15 -20 and as the norm.

That was 27 years ago, take it for what its worth. That’s about the last time I panicked about ammo prices.
 
pinkbunny said:
How will the Russian ammo ban affect x39 guns?
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7.62x39 or 5.45x39? Because it's going to be a fairly disparate future for the two calibers.

This is bad for us all and no honest person, no matter how dumb, can successfully argue otherwise. BUT ... it's not the end of the world. I don't want to repeat myself too much after posting over in the "Russian ammo bans" thread (https://carolinafirearmsforum.com/index.php?threads/russian-ammo-bans.95418/post-1619218), but there are plenty of other nations that either A) still produce 7.62x39, B) still have the tooling to produce it, C) have it stockpiled, or more likely, D) all of the above. With the vacuum created by this ban, others will step in because American money still talks. As long as there are several million guns that shoot the stuff floating around the states, there will be fresh ammo to shoot them. Some folks may get out of the AK family of guns because they only got into them for super cheap plinking, but I'd wager a big chunk of those folks are WASR, NPAP, VSKA, C39, RAS-47, Riley, and SKS owners. I can't imagine a lot of owners of higher end AKs are gonna dump them at a loss on the market. Before the Molot sanction, you could score VEPRs in all sorts of random calibers, so I think existing and even some new x39 guns will continue to appear.

Will we ever get back to sub-20 cents per round? Probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised to find it at $.0.25-$0.30 again some day. The Chinese ammo ban's been mentioned here. Guess who just scored a Romanian SAR-1 for $800? Guess who just picked up another sealed can of PRE-BAN STEEL CORE ARMOR PIERCING BANNED (*GUNBROKER SCALPERS FOAMING AT MOUTH* DID I MENTHION SHTEEL CORE?!?!?1) Norinco X39 on stripper clips for less than 50 cents a round? So even if ALL 7.62x39 stopped coming into the U.S., we could reasonably expect to be able to buy the stuff already here for a relatively decent price for decades to come.

About that 5.45x39 on the other hand. I've shed more than a few tears and drank more than a feel pilsners to help come to terms with that one...
 
This is a ban on ammo imported from Russia, not every other com bloc country. All of the big names already produced ammo outside of Russia, It will take a little bit to re design supply chain- but they will figure it out. Too much money to make
 
digitalpaladin10 said:
There's too much money to be made in the free market with 7.62x39mm ammo. The ammo makers know we'll buy it and will do anything to get it to us. I'm staying patient.
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Speaking of patience, Recreator told me my order is FINALLY moving, so hopefully I'll be getting in touch with you again soon 😎
 
Majicmike said:
Plus some other accepted country will rebrand Russian ammo and sell it to us.
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If I had to guess this is what is going to happen. The rounds will get a new headstamp and be made in Russia and shipped somewhere else and packed for the US market.
 
Where?
 
It’s all good brother. (I did have the cc ready though). Carry on…..
 
I saw online that Collectible Arms & Ammo II Corp, Merrimack NH 03054

I believe that was still selling Golden Tiger for $249 per 1k and only 1 box per person though
 
No website? I’ll be calling Tuesday morning when they open. Thanks Kingding!
 
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*Can* undo, but all but certainly will not do. At least with respect to the 2A. Hell, Trump expanded on Russian sanctions - instead of bringing back 7N6 he banned VEPRs.
 
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