Reddit /r/NFA eForm 4 Megathread Approved Dataset - 836 Records

QuadRail

QuadRail

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eform 4 one pager 7522.png

Link to the dataset - raw data + tabs for more specific data

Imgur album with more graphs - one pager got busy quick.

I’ve been keeping a close eye on approvals, unfortunately I think the data will normalize and eForm 4 approvals will begin to average 150ish days very soon. The current overall median (107 days) or average (106 days) is skewed by the lower volume early adopters.

Hopefully this helps some folks with some submittal decisions. Let me know if you have any questions.

TLDR mailing paper prints is faster than uploading electronic prints & approval speed seems to be dropping off significantly since launch. F4 approvals exceed the 90-day goal 78% of the time.
 
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QuadRail said:
TLDR mailing paper prints is faster than uploading electronic prints & approval speed seems to be dropping off significantly since launch. F4 approvals exceed the 90-day goal 78% of the time.
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Disclaimer: I didn’t click on any of the links to see the raw data…or read the details. So if I’m discussing something that was already clarified, oh well. 😁


I’m going to disagree with the mailing vs electronic on a technicality. Or at least ad an asterisk to it.

The reason for that is Silencer Shop does all theirs electronically. And they got a slow start on it, and almost every report I’ve read recently talks about how slow their process can be based on the local dealer. Before the change in Dec ‘21, the local dealer wasn’t really involved until the end. Now they play a vital role…and they’re not all up to speed. When you consider the volume SS handles, any “problem” on their end will skew results.

I’d wager the truth is there’s zero difference in the two. Nobody is touching that form for at least a month, and the prints will arrive before then. And if I posted in another thread is actually true, the BGC isn’t even started until late in the process now.

The overall all averages will (or at least could) include some <48 hour approvals. That’s been happening fairly regularly due to resubmitted forms getting approved in a day or two.

I think it’ll eventually drop down to their target of 90 days…maybe by the end of the year. But the ATF is a prime example of past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
BigWaylon said:
I’m going to disagree with the mailing vs electronic on a technicality. Or at least ad an asterisk to it.

The reason for that is Silencer Shop does all theirs electronically.
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Electronic = when a user specifically mentions uploading an EFT file or using a SS Kiosk - this is not solely SS submissions. I submitted my F4s through Gunners Alley FFL, uploading my EFT prints I had done through PrintScan - I would fall in this category.

No Info = when a user doesn’t provide any info on vendor used or fingerprint submission type

Likely Paper? = when a user says they went through a LGS, not SS - but doesn’t specify electronic or paper prints

Paper = when a user specifically mentions mailing hard copy prints

I tried to avoid making this a SS vs other vendor thing. Whatever is going on behind the scenes, I’m convinced mailed prints take priority. If electronic prints were easier + faster for them to process, they’d likely allow electronic EFT prints for eForm 1 applications.

BigWaylon said:
I think it’ll eventually drop down to their target of 90 days…maybe by the end of the year
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I disagree but I hope I’m wrong. The data is trending in the opposite direction. I think F4 submission volume has gone way up & July approvals are set to average almost twice the wait of their 90-day target. I don’t know anything about their internal process but it’s hard to imagine them reigning in the wait times by the end of 2022 if the submission volume remains the same.
 
QuadRail said:
I tried to avoid making this a SS vs other vendor thing. Whatever is going on behind the scenes, I’m convinced mailed prints take priority. If electronic prints were easier + faster for them to process, they’d likely allow electronic EFT prints for eForm 1 applications.
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I don’t use SS either. THSF handles all mine and submits prints electronically.

But forms being approved today are from when SS commonly had dealers taking weeks, and some over a month, just to do the certification. You can go to AR15 and read complaint after complaint after complaint. So due to their volume, they statistically have to have an impact on any averages that are calculated. Some of those delays have been reduced, but it’s still going on with some dealers. Now…if the data only includes wait time from actual submission (once the certification is complete), then my argument is null and void. But I’d assume they’re starting from when the customer says they’ve started the process, so all the SS delays are included.

And I’ll disagree with your last sentence (in my quote) on the simple fact that’s it’s logical, and we’re talking about the ATF. 🤣
 
BigWaylon said:
Now…if the data only includes wait time from actual submission (once the certification is complete), then my argument is null and void.
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The data should only include pending / certified date - but this is self-reported user data, so the hygiene is limited to how various users self-report.

Another argument for paper vs electronic prints… my oldest eForm 4 submission was on 4/6, 90-days ago today 🫠. So far, there have been 6 approvals with the same 4/6 pending date as me. 5 out of 6 of those approved submissions specifically mentioned mailing hard copy prints, using a variety of vendors. The 6th was an AZ SS submission with electronic prints, which is a known outlier cause there’s some drama with AZ SS FFL’s closing.

This pattern can be repeated across many other recent approval dates from various vendors & states. Just a complete coincidence? Maybe. But I think it’s plausible that the ATF has a different intake process for mailed paper prints & electronic prints. And for whatever reason, paper has the edge at this moment in time.
 
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@QuadRail did they remove the other forms tracker they had on r/NFA?

I used that to watch paper form 4 and eform1 status
 
Gray said:
Anyone ever call these folks? I’m about ready to pick up the phone.
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Talked to them many, many times. Why exactly are you wanting to call? That will determine whether it’s useful or not.
 
Just to be a squeaky wheel really. Probably not the best idea at 133 days into waiting for three approvals.
 
Gray said:
Just to be a squeaky wheel really. Probably not the best idea at 133 days into waiting for three approvals.
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Eform? Zero reason to call. The people answering the phone have nothing to do with the approval process. There are no status changes between Submitted/In Process and either Approved or Disapproved.

If you got the email when it was submitted, you’ll get one when it’s finalized.
 
Gray said:
Just to be a squeaky wheel really. Probably not the best idea at 133 days into waiting for three approvals.
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I'm at 176 on an eform for whatever it's worth. They're just going to tell you it's still pending and that you'll get an email when approved.
 
😕
 
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