Winter...WTH!?

Life of a bread vendor, I am not jealous of you at all! As a beer vendor I deal with a lot for weather events but the bread and chip folks sure do work thier butts off.

I’m a shipper/truck driver. I get the product to the vendors. All the work, none of the glory. Lol. On the plus side, I get paid whether it sells or not. On the bad side, I’m in Asheville for 2 more weeks. We rarely cancel loads but it might happen this time. It’s happened twice in 10 years.


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Anyone that has a pickup truck with only A/S tires should buy a set of basic 17" Aluminum rims and get a set of 33x12.5-17 TRUXS MT's for the winter months. While Ice is still the enemy, these are fantastic in snow, mud and rain. And quieter than BFG AT on the road even at 80MPH on the highway. BFG AT can spin on packed snow. These suckers dig in a grab traction.
The only draw back is that you might get rear ended by some sliding because you can actually still slow down and stop.
I ran them on my 93YJ up in MA. Never once got stuck. Had them on my 2010 Rubicon. That is where I found out how quiet they are at 80MPH on the highway driving to an from MA.
 
weather channel has upped their prediction to 5-8 for triad

accuweather is at 1 inch for us

what a difference
 
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weather channel has upped their prediction to 5-8 for triad

accuweather is at 1 inch for us

what a difference

The guy I watch at wxrisk.com says that most of places relay on the same handful of models as most other places and have historical rate for statistical inaccuracy. It's crazy how people read the same data and come to different conclusions; I see it frequently in the medical field.
 
Probability maps. Map on left is p > 3" of snow; right, p > 6" of snow. Also, the CI (confidence interval) of >1" of winter precip is extremely high. All this means: math supplants emotions, models start to align, the closer to the event the fewer outliers there are and the more the various models are becoming bullish. Very, very unique event for December; this is more a February type storm.



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I predict we won't get sh!t in Metrolina area of NC, other than a cold rain and a bunch of hype from Steve CokeBottleBottoms Udelson.
 
I predict we won't get sh!t in Metrolina area of NC, other than a cold rain and a bunch of hype from Steve CokeBottleBottoms Udelson.

There may not be; with the map on the left it looks like (small number, hard to see well) 70-something percent chance of at least 3" of winter precip, so there's still a 25ish % chance of not.

People see high numbers and think 'guarantee', then when it doesn't happen, they are like "a ha!", but the models are still right. Personally I don't get excited until it's about 80, 85 %. Them are strong odds (but still a 'good' chance of nothing).
 
our big snows never come from the north or the west, they always come from the south when cold air has been in place for WEEKS....that 70 deg stint on Sunday almost guaranteed whatever we get will not stick.

When Atlanta gets hammered with snow, normally so does CLT. Y'all enjoy your 3" of whatever. I plan on coming to work Monday come hell or high wetcoldrain.
 
our big snows never come from the north or the west, they always come from the south when cold air has been in place for WEEKS....that 70 deg stint on Sunday almost guaranteed whatever we get will not stick.

When Atlanta gets hammered with snow, normally so does CLT. Y'all enjoy your 3" of whatever. I plan on coming to work Monday come hell or high wetcoldrain.

Who knows how long it'll stick around. Probably not long, at all. Ground temps too warm.

Most storms do ride the low from the south; this is the same thing, but the 'south' will be over the NC/SC border and the low will head off-coast to pull in moisture.

To be explicit: I do not predict, I just show data. What people do with it is up to them. I don't get 'worked up' or emotional about numbers.
 
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Anyone that has a pickup truck with only A/S tires should buy a set of basic 17" Aluminum rims and get a set of 33x12.5-17 TRUXS MT's for the winter months. While Ice is still the enemy, these are fantastic in snow, mud and rain. And quieter than BFG AT on the road even at 80MPH on the highway. BFG AT can spin on packed snow. These suckers dig in a grab traction.
The only draw back is that you might get rear ended by some sliding because you can actually still slow down and stop.
I ran them on my 93YJ up in MA. Never once got stuck. Had them on my 2010 Rubicon. That is where I found out how quiet they are at 80MPH on the highway driving to an from MA.

They are durable as well. I've got a set on my 2016 Rubicon that have 28,000 miles and the tread still looks great.
 
It was snowing pretty good in High Point around 430. Nothing sticking and only lasted about 10 minutes but was still cool to be happening so early in winter.
 
Kinda looking forward to a little snow. Grew up on the south side of Chicago and NW Indiana lake effect show. 2-3' some mornings. Used to love ice fishing on Powder Horn Lake when it was -20 below too. But that's when I was younger and had a proper circulatory system. Now, snow for a day, look pretty and melt the hell away.
 
THIS is winter!

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My siding is showing 31 degs. Right now. The walkways are at 40 degs.
 
our big snows never come from the north or the west, they always come from the south when cold air has been in place for WEEKS....that 70 deg stint on Sunday almost guaranteed whatever we get will not stick.

When Atlanta gets hammered with snow, normally so does CLT. Y'all enjoy your 3" of whatever. I plan on coming to work Monday come hell or high wetcoldrain.
I agree with the snow coming up I-85 from Atlanta. I called and cancelled my colonoscopy that was scheduled for Monday just in case. I told my wife that I was not going to do all the "prep" work all weekend and then have them cancel it Monday morning. Screw that. I'll reschedule it in the spring.
 
I've never seen every weather person this "supposedly" certain when the front has just made it to the western US. Usually they wait till its in TX at least. They can barely predict what day its going to rain when it's at the Mississippi river.......
 
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How are you prepping?
 
It'll be a nice big snow for a day or so, then a big sloppy mess for a few days, then everything back to normal.

There will be cars and SUVs driven by folks from the big northern cities stuck in ditches all over the place.

Not being a Debbie Downer. I like seeing a big snow. Just speaking from experience.:)
 
A big ass pot of chilli and a bottle of whiskey. Should be a good weekend.

I'm a beer drinker not a whiskey drinker but that big ass pot of chili sounds delicious.
 
preps...same old things:
toilet paper, gas for the generator, groceries/water/batteries.
2 1/2 hurricanes and a foot of snow in January this year.
2018 has been on the extreme side at our place in the sun.
 
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