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Wuhan, nCV, germs....

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Chuckman, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    US airports are screening Chinese flyers for the new coronavirus. One case now in the US; over 470 in China with 9 deaths.

    I swear, one day World War Z will be a documentary....
     
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  2. Jp8819

    Jp8819 Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Think it would be frowned upon to spray lysal on everyone I come in contact with in the airport on future flights?

    Between tsa and now this you might as well go ahead and look forward to submitting a blood test to fly.
     
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  3. REELDOC

    REELDOC EYES OPEN, NO FEAR Benefactor Supporting Member

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    Another reason not to fly added to my million other reasons.
     
  4. Ikarus1

    Ikarus1 Avtomat Krishna-kov

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    China has a lot of people. What is the percentage vs the population of people diagnosed with this new media darling? Remember SARS? How about H1N1?

    Take Vitamin C, wash your hands, don't come to work sick, and keep your sick kids at home. Maybe eat better and use a humidifier if the air is dry in your home.

    And for God's sake, don't fly sick on a plane
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
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  5. georgel

    georgel Behind Every Blade of Grass Supporting Member

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    Just read up on it some last night. They're comparing to SARS, it's related. 1 man infected 14 medical workers in a hospital setting. So, they confirm it's human to human, but still trying to determine mode(s). They believe it originated in the food/animal markets. It's also Chinese holiday. Expect much wider reports soon.
     
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  6. rantingredneck

    rantingredneck ....glutton for punishment..... Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Media fear mongering aside (because that is definitely a thing...) if one day by chance mutation or evil design, a virus with high mortality, airborne transmission, and relatively long incubation period emerges.....yeah.....
     
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  7. Ikarus1

    Ikarus1 Avtomat Krishna-kov

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    You mean like Ebola?
     
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  8. charliesgrave

    charliesgrave cosmoline enthusiast Benefactor Life Member Supporting Member

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    Realistically, right now at least, coronavirus is going to present like the flu in most people.
    I wouldn't want it, but the average healthy person wont likely die from it (granted, that could change).
    Old people and small children and people who are immunocompromised or who have pulmonary problems like COPD or cystic fibrosis are going to be hit a lot harder and are the ones really at risk.

    Right now I'm more worried about the flu. It seems like we're having a later flu season this year and in my experience, it tends to be worse when that happens. Also, you old timers be aware of RSV. Seeing an odd uptick in that this year in the elderly and it's not been kind to the patients I've treated with it. Almost always ends up pneumonia, and folks with COPD/etc it's ten times worse.
     
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  9. rantingredneck

    rantingredneck ....glutton for punishment..... Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Not airborne....

    Make Ebola as contagious as influenza and we have a problem.
     
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  10. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    With contagious diseases it's not about percentage sick/population. How contagious is it (i.e., virulence)? What do host bodies to re: immune function (i.e., how does the body respond)? What is the lethality? How durable is it (i.e., how hard is it to kill)?Does it mutate, and how fast? Remember with microbiology some of these diseases are force multipliers and infect in terms of exponential growth and not linear growth.
     
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  11. Ikarus1

    Ikarus1 Avtomat Krishna-kov

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    It is airborne in pig to simian transmission with documented cases.
     
  12. rantingredneck

    rantingredneck ....glutton for punishment..... Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    But has a human transmitted it to another human yet via airborne means while flying in an aluminum tube at 35000 feet? No? Then you're apparently just arguing for argument sake.

    So I'll say it again. When Ebola evolves to where it is as transmissible as the flu.... We have a problem.
     
  13. Ikarus1

    Ikarus1 Avtomat Krishna-kov

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    And yet in your OP you mentioned Mutate....and I simply offered that Ebola would fit the criteria if that happened. Then you jumped on the "but but" wagon that it hadn't happened yet.
     
  14. rantingredneck

    rantingredneck ....glutton for punishment..... Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Then I misunderstood your intent in using it as an example, my apologies. I assumed you were taking the position that it fit the criteria and yet the world hadn't ended. I was taking the position that it almost fit the criteria. Now I see we were saying the same thing in different ways.

    Yes, if it mutates as such....we have a problem.

    If you look at it's history it's a pretty good case study in how human travel and migration greatly impacts a disease's death toll. Early outbreaks were in isolated villages where the nearest next village was days away by foot. Then comes more widespread use of vehicles to those areas. Then comes development and air travel.....
     
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  15. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    In the strains so far, it has not been transmissible to humans. Could it? I do not know. I certainly hope not. But definitely not ruling it out.
     
  16. Ikarus1

    Ikarus1 Avtomat Krishna-kov

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    Yeah I watched the Hot Zone and it got me interested in these outbreaks that are still happening in Congo and other places. Before air travel, these viruses had a way of snuffing themselves out along with their hosts.
     
  17. Downeast

    Downeast Happy to be here

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    If you want an interesting read on what happens during a viral outbreak read John M Barry, The Great Influenza. They were rolling down the streets of Philadelphia in wagons pulling the dead out of homes. It started in Kansas in 1918 and killed more in one year than the Black Death killed in a century. More than 100 million died worldwide.
     
  18. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    On of my friends is David Fitzgerald, who is one of the ID experts for ebola and zika (so is his wife). They moved to Malawi to be closer for research and treatment. He is the one the CDC turns to for help. He is about a billion times smarter than I am regarding this stuff.
     
  19. Ikarus1

    Ikarus1 Avtomat Krishna-kov

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    Pretty interesting also on how it was studied decades later
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

    "buried and preserved by the permafrost about 7 feet deep was the body of an Inuit woman that Hultin named “Lucy.” Lucy, Hultin would learn, was an obese woman who likely died in her mid-20s due to complications from the 1918 virus. Her lungs were perfectly frozen and preserved in the Alaskan permafrost. Hultin removed them, placed them in preserving fluid, and later shipped them separately to Taubenberger and his fellow researchers, including Dr. Ann Reid, at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology.5 Ten days later, Hultin received a call from the scientists to confirm — to perhaps everyone’s collective astonishment — that positive 1918 virus genetic material had indeed been obtained from Lucy’s lung tissue."
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
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  20. Button Pusher

    Button Pusher Well-Known Member Benefactor Supporting Member

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    There's a fire.
     
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  21. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    Also, not a virus, but read up on transmission and outbreak of the plague in the 1300s. The vectors were different, as is the nature of the organism (virus vs bacterium), but how they spread through travel is remarkably similar.
     
  22. Long_Hunter

    Long_Hunter Embrace the Suck Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Not real worried right now about Ebola or this new virus...what will keep me awake at night if I let myself dwell on it, is what happens when/if H5N1 bird flu mutates into a strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. If I remember correctly, around 60% of folks known to have been infected with the current Asian strain of it have died from it...a 60% kill rate is full-up boogaloo rated.
     
  23. Brian K

    Brian K Resident Douchenozzle Charter Member Supporting Member

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    I'm thinking the TSA would be far more interested in a semen sample.

    Those zombies were stupid fast. I have friends who work for innocuous biological "research labs" in the WS technology corridor, but their funding comes from the DOD. Tho most of their work revolves around implanting technology in the human body. They swear that if there's ever a "Zombie Apocalypse" it will be the result of a modified or mutated rabies virus.


    upload_2020-1-22_15-32-50.png
     
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  24. Long_Hunter

    Long_Hunter Embrace the Suck Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Having just stated I wasn't that concerned...well now the Chicoms have gone and locked downed and quarantined the entire city of Wuhan...and that will be no small feat...its a city of over 11 million people and another 8M in the surrounding suburbs so closer to 19+M they are going to try and throw a net over...the only way to do that is to use the military.

    Are they hiding something else...

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/china-quarantines-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-reports
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
  25. JimP42

    JimP42 Mostly harmless Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    That sounds serious.
     
  26. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    The DOD funds a LOT of research regarding infectious diseases. A lot.

    This stuff trips my trigger because of what I have done and what I have studied (in grad school). Sometimes I think we are 'this' close to a massive deadly outbreak of something bad.
     
  27. VA_GENTLEMAN

    VA_GENTLEMAN Gone Galt Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Natural Order, Balance and Stasis.

    We think we have the World on A String... we are fleas on a dogs ass.
     
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  28. REELDOC

    REELDOC EYES OPEN, NO FEAR Benefactor Supporting Member

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    Although not as educmacated as the Chuckman, I've studied this stuff for many years. I was with SORT for 14 years, wrote the hazmat guidelines and managed the Forsyth Hospital hazmat team for almost 8 years. Whenever you get wind of this kind of stuff don't play it off lightly. There is a game on the Google play app store called Plague Inc. that I have on my phone for when I have absolutely nothing to do. I have destroyed the earth's population more than once just by starting out with a simple cold. It replicates exactly how bioboogers are spread in all forms of transportation. YMMV. I worked with a doc that was at Fort Detrick for several years, the crap he told me made me not really want to leave the house again.

    There is a book called 'The Great Influenza' written by John M Barry. Dang near a required reading for us disaster junkies.
     
  29. VA_GENTLEMAN

    VA_GENTLEMAN Gone Galt Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    @REELDOC .. "bioboogers"...Excellent word... added to my vocabulary!

    I was talking to my uncle today who did some survey work for the mines during the late 40s and he talked about cemeteries that had stones with all ages dying within days of each other... 1918 was serious... once again History talking and not many listening.
     
  30. random

    random Active Member

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    While it's not a virus (and can thus be countered with antibiotics), imagine if the Plague (yersenia pestis) mutated into a pneumonic variety (as has happened before). Initial symptoms resemble flu, no reason to check for plague. Now picture someone on an international flight with connections in, say, London, DFW, and LAX, traveling through them while contagious.

    That's quite a nightmare scenario. How many thousands of people over how much of the world would be infected before anyone really even figured out what was going on?

    Wild? :)
     
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  31. REELDOC

    REELDOC EYES OPEN, NO FEAR Benefactor Supporting Member

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    There's another good book called 'Germs' by Judith Miller, heavy reading.
     
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  32. georgel

    georgel Behind Every Blade of Grass Supporting Member

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    Where's my P100 full face respirator? :eek:
     
  33. cold1

    cold1 Member Supporting Member

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    24 to 72 hours to live. Pneumonic plague must get aggressive antibiotics within the first 12 to 24 hours to have any hope.
     
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  34. Long_Hunter

    Long_Hunter Embrace the Suck Benefactor Charter Life Member

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  35. Brian K

    Brian K Resident Douchenozzle Charter Member Supporting Member

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  36. DrScaryGuy

    DrScaryGuy Well-Known Member

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    time to dust off an old favorite...
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Goofyfoot2001

    Goofyfoot2001 Member Supporting Member

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    Would have detonated much higher up. Also for this sscene I would have left out the buildings and the people being blown up and would have just had a bit larger explosion, and only the explosion followed by a blacked, slightly cratered ring.

     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020
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  38. Me.

    Me. Active Member

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    So what? We already have too many people.


    Think about this. Especially the older folks here.

    When my mom was born, there were two billion people on earth. We then set about killing more humans than ever in history (WWII). My mom is still alive, there are now over SEVEN billion people.


    Let that sink in for a second. In 80 years, we have replaced everyone who has died and ADDED five BILLION people.


    You could wipe out five billion people (71% of the population of the planet) and you would reset us back to only the 1930s.

    And within the lifespan of a child born today, they would all be replaced.


    I don’t want to sound like a monster, but I’m not afraid of the outcome of a global pandemic. I’m not against fighting it, but even if we had The Plague level losses, humans would still be the dominant force on the planet.


    upload_2020-1-23_7-31-29.jpeg


    Or, if you prefer:

    upload_2020-1-23_7-33-4.gif
     
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  39. Grim

    Grim Well-Known Member

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    This. The dead do not walk/move/etc.; thus the mechanism for the "reanimation" of corpses is highly illogical. However, something that may have appeared dead, or extremely bad off (health-wise), could have inspired these claims of zombies.

    New zombie films such as Quarantine and 28 Days Later both theorize that the most likely "zombie" type outbreak would come from a weaponized strain of rabies. It does seem to be the most logical vector for that kind of outbreak.
     
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  40. rantingredneck

    rantingredneck ....glutton for punishment..... Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Thats a good one.