Wuhan, nCV, germs....

This is my third year of trading "full time", and one thing I've learned is that you do not have to time a market bottom to make money. You do have to make smart choices and have patience when required. But I don't want to derail this thread too much.
 
Just asking. This is way outside of my wheelhouse.

If the virus was purpose built to be weaponized, wouldn't there also be a "cure" or "treatment" to go along with it? Not much point in having a weapon that once you turn it loose it kills everything it touches with no way to spare some people - you know, the politicians. Or would this be an "Outbreak" scenario where they withhold the cure to protect the weapon?
 
Just asking. This is way outside of my wheelhouse.

If the virus was purpose built to be weaponized, wouldn't there also be a "cure" or "treatment" to go along with it? Not much point in having a weapon that once you turn it loose it kills everything it touches with no way to spare some people - you know, the politicians. Or would this be an "Outbreak" scenario where they withhold the cure to protect the weapon?

It's a virus, not bacteria. Viruses mutate, on their own, within host organisms. It's how they survive and grow. There is no cure, just supportive treatment. A couple of viruses have prophylaxis; flu & tamiflu. But for the handful of viruses that have medications to stop mutation/growth, there are a million that don't.
 
It's a virus, not bacteria. Viruses mutate, on their own, within host organisms. It's how they survive and grow. There is no cure, just supportive treatment. A couple of viruses have prophylaxis; flu & tamiflu. But for the handful of viruses that have medications to stop mutation/growth, there are a million that don't.

Just saying, that seems like a pretty stupid thing to mess around with if you can't stop it once you turn it loose.


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Just saying, that seems like a pretty stupid thing to mess around with if you can't stop it once you turn it loose.
IMHO, the talk of intentional release of weaponized virus is silly. I'd bet either zoonotic transmission or accidental escape from BSL-4 lab in Wuhan.
 
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IMHO, the talk of intentional release of weaponized virus is silly. I'd bet either zoonotic transmission or accidental escape from BSL-4 lab in Wuhan.
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Corona is almost always contracted through zoonotic transmission. The Chinese will slaughter and sell any animal they can get their hands on. Dogs, cats, bats, rats, and other things that don't rhyme. Sometimes they cook them. Wet markets like the one pictured are anything but sanitary.
 
Just saying, that seems like a pretty stupid thing to mess around with if you can't stop it once you turn it loose.


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I don't disagree. CBRNE is not an area where you want an "oops"-type of issue. Dealing with a virus in and of itself is not a big deal, though. A virus is a fire-and-forget weapon, more unstable than bacteria.
 
Asymptomatic transmission is going to up the ante.:rolleyes:
Take anything reported by China with a grain of salt and anything reported only by China as fiction.
 
While local (Wuhan) and provincial (Hubei) government officials dropped the ball (though it's not clear if they needed permission from national officials to go public about the virus and didn't receive that permission), as they've known about the infections since early December, once the national government started their response, I have to say they've done a pretty good job.

Quarantining cities that total ~50mm people is no easy feat, nor a decision taken lightly. But this, along with incredibly high levels of awareness in all of China, could lead to the virus burning out relatively quickly. Because of the longish incubation period, and all the traveling for Chinese lunar new year, we won't know how high the transmissions that have already taken place will go. But given what I'm seeing, I think the new infections starting from this weekend will be very low (barring significant mutation).

A virus is like a fire - it needs a continual supply of fresh hosts. And the Chinese response, which is unprecedented in its scale or scope, is going to dramatically decrease that supply.

The medical community is certainly way more prepared than they were during SARS. Back then, many medical personnel were infected because they weren't routinely asking if the patient had traveled recently and as a result, not using PPE. That has totally changed. And outside China, seems all the countries are very quick to identify the virus and quarantine patients, and trace contacts.

Overall, I'd have to rate the current Chinese and global response an A. One criticism is how many countries were slow to halt, or never halted, flights from Hubei. And only a couple of countries are halting all incoming flights from China. Although given the lack of evidence thus far of transmission outside China (in fact, I haven't seen much in the way of evidence of transmission outside Hubei), this kind of extreme measure, essentially quarantining the entire country, may be overkill.
 
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It's gotta suck to be in the middle that mess.
My son, his wife, and his one year old (got sick last night and has been out of their home for six days, and in ours for the last three) just got confirmation at the doc that they've all got the flu. Therefore my wife definitely has it :(
 
And that means you're next...
Hopefully not. When the boy got here I banned everyone from the kitchen, my office and 1/2 of the living room, wiped everything down with alcohol before food prep, prepped their food then dropped it off and ran, slept on the sofa. Me bride and I have Dr appts in the morn for tamiflu or whatever they have.
 
Hopefully not. When the boy got here I banned everyone from the kitchen, my office and 1/2 of the living room, wiped everything down with alcohol before food prep, prepped their food then dropped it off and ran, slept on the sofa. Me bride and I have Dr appts in the morn for tamiflu or whatever they have.

Sadly I’m sitting here day three of a cold confined to upstairs which isn’t so bad because I have everything I need on this floor. I’m just going a little stir crazy and I’m tired of sleeping
 
Sadly I’m sitting here day three of a cold confined to upstairs which isn’t so bad because I have everything I need on this floor. I’m just going a little stir crazy and I’m tired of sleeping
Now you just need some yahoos here to not realize it's not Friday yet and get something stirred up to keep you busy :p
 
I still doubt that this is much more than a media circus, but if it is bad it’ll be interesting in a morbid way to see how it rolls across N. Korea.
 
Hopefully not. When the boy got here I banned everyone from the kitchen, my office and 1/2 of the living room, wiped everything down with alcohol before food prep, prepped their food then dropped it off and ran, slept on the sofa. Me bride and I have Dr appts in the morn for tamiflu or whatever they have.
Good luck. I was diagnosed with flu a few weeks ago. I managed to not infect the rest of the family. But, a couple of them had strep, which I managed to avoid. I was given a script for Fluenza, which I think helped because my symptoms we're relatively mild. But, Fluenza, even with a $60 coupon was still over $70. :eek:
 
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WOW! Number of confirmed cases just jumped 50%. Total deaths also jumped about 25%.

(# deaths)/(# deaths + # recovered) is growing and it should be shrinking.

Number of confirmed cases in US is still 5.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
keep in mind there is a likely a huge backlog of people waiting to be tested. Plus with people taking off this past weekend for the beginning of lunar new year, not surprising to see a large jump early in the week as medical and lab personnel get back to work.

For me, the real test of my aforementioned theory is after the backlog is cleared and we get past the incubation period for people who would have contracted the virus starting this past weekend, which is when a lot of the quarantine measures started. Do we then continue to see 40-50% daily growth in confirmed infections, or does it start to decline. I'm betting on the latter.

I'm discounting the asymptomatic transmission claim. Respiratory viruses, including other coronaviruses don't operate like that. Unless the chicoms modified nCoV, I'm guessing it doesn't either.

It's still not clear to me that there is a self-sustaining outbreak in China outside of Hubei. And we certainly don't have evidence of that outside China. If Chicoms can maintain quarantine measures for a couple of weeks, they can burn the virus out.
 
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I still doubt that this is much more than a media circus, but if it is bad it’ll be interesting in a morbid way to see how it rolls across N. Korea.
North Korea closed the border, IIRC. As has Mongolia. I'm sure more Asian countries will follow this week and refuse entry to Chinese nationals travelling from China.

We should do the same, but the left would go berserk.
 
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Latest stuff I read said the the Chinese may have known about this since December. And while the market in Wuhan may have been been a critical epicenter, it might not have been the origin.
 
Latest stuff I read said the the Chinese may have known about this since December. And while the market in Wuhan may have been been a critical epicenter, it might not have been the origin.
Yeah, Wuhan authorities have known since early or mid December. Not clear when CCP in Beijing knew. Clearly the latter is looking to make the former take the blame.

So what have you read may be the origin? The BSL-4 lab in Wuhan or something outside Wuhan?
 
I still doubt that this is much more than a media circus, but if it is bad it’ll be interesting in a morbid way to see how it rolls across N. Korea.
North Korea could have it's entire population save for one half-starved man killed off by this and the dude left would still broadcast propaganda about how they had discovered a cure and no one in the country died and everyone had plenty of food to eat.
 
The real risk of another large outbreak lies in India or Africa, IMO.

A human-to-human transmission case has been reported in Japan and another in Germany. That's not a big deal per se, but I believe those are the first reported outside of China.
 
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The real risk of another large outbreak lies in India or Africa, IMO.

A human-to-human transmission case has been reported in Japan and another in Germany. That's not a big deal per se, but I believe those are the first reported outside of China.
And those cases will probably drive WHO to elevate this from Phase 4 to Phase 5.
 
If Chicoms can maintain quarantine measures for a couple of weeks, they can burn the virus out.
Given the population density in the cities they quarantined and the way people are still people, a few weeks of quarantine might be more deaths than the virus itself would be..
 
One day I'm gonna get something because the mainstream media said I would, and I didn't believe them since you can't believe a damn thing they say.
And then I'll recover, and two years later the MM will tell me about the new virus and I'll get that one too since I still won't believe a damn thing they say.
 
One day I'm gonna get something because the mainstream media said I would, and I didn't believe them since you can't believe a damn thing they say.
And then I'll recover, and two years later the MM will tell me about the new virus and I'll get that one too since I still won't believe a damn thing they say.

To their credit (which I rarely ever say), most are simply reporting what they know, and the information is not only changing often, it's going to be different depending on whom they talk. At the end of the day look to MSM for global themes, but CDC for updated information.

In intelligence we'd use a version of the Admiralty matrix; I would rate the MSM between D3 and D4.
 
Just realize this for what it is; a family form of MERS/SARS. The protein rings are the same practically; we've had coronaviruses forever, this is just a case of one taking hold in a remote-ish area in a closed environment and the steps needed to contain an RNA-mover before it gets mobile enough to change and evolve. All viruses, every one, are potentially capable of this, given the right prey and conditions; which is what makes them great predators and so damn interesting.
China is taking the right actions, let's just let this burn out. Wash your hands, take a shower, cook your food and stay informed.
 
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Japanese news is reporting it's 4th confirmed case. Between Jan 24 and Jan 30 they expect 700,000 Chinese visitors for the holiday. Japan and S Korea have been worried for months over the Chines swine disease and pork imports.
 
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harv...ationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

"Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases"

Some notes from the release:
  • Charles Lieber, Chair of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard University arrested this morning.
  • Lieber was a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China.
  • WUT paid Lieber $50,000 USD per month, living expenses of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the time) and awarded him more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT.
  • The complaint alleges that in 2018 and 2019, Lieber lied about his involvement in the Thousand Talents Plan and affiliation with WUT.
  • Yanqing Ye, 29, a Chinese national, was charged in an indictment today with one count each of visa fraud, making false statements, acting as an agent of a foreign government and conspiracy. Ye is currently in China.
  • Ye is a Lieutenant of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China and member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
  • While studying at Boston University’s (BU) Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biomedical Engineering, Ye continued to work as a PLA Lieutenant completing numerous assignments from PLA officers such as conducting research, assessing U.S. military websites and sending U.S. documents and information to China.
  • Zaosong Zheng, 30, a Chinese national, was arrested on Dec. 10, 2019, at Boston’s Logan International Airport.
  • Zheng stole 21 vials of biological research and attempted to smuggle them out of the United States aboard a flight destined for China. Federal officers at Logan Airport discovered the vials hidden in a sock inside one of Zheng’s bags, and not properly packaged.
I'm sure it's just a coincidence, but wow what a coincidence. You can't make this stuff up.

edit - pretty much every one of my cohorts in graduate school had a name like "Zaosong Zheng" or "Yanqing Ye".
 
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