Wuhan, nCV, germs....

Yeah, and I read that this was lifted (they would text you if the ban applied to you, and then they didn't text anybody), and the limitation that remained in force was you can't drive out of the city.
The ban in Wuhan was announced on the 25th. This photo from the 26th shows practically no traffic on some freeways. This photo from the 28th shows where "authorities in Wuhan, Hubei province, have designated 6,000 taxis to deliver food and commodities to residents in downtown areas" which would make sense if most vehicles were banned in the downtown areas.
 
Occurred to me that this is a good time for CCP to disappear people they don't like. With all the people coming in and out of hospitals, people trapped behind quarantine lines, and bodies going to the incinerator, would be pretty easy to disappear folks in the fog of a large scale disease outbreak.
 
Lots of China's neighbors are closing the border: Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan.

Others banning flights from China: Italy, Israel, Egypt.

US State Dept travel advisory raised to 4, the highest level - "Do not travel".

Have to imagine US will soon ban flights, barring a decrease in infection spread, because infected Chinese who have the means to fly here will do so knowing they will get better medical care. Or maybe the pilots and stewardesses will refuse to fly there. I sure as hell wouldn't want to share cabin air with a plane full of Chinese for the long flight from China to the west coast.
 
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Have to imagine US will soon ban flights, barring a decrease in infection spread, because infected Chinese who have the means to fly here will do so knowing they will get better medical care. Or maybe the pilots and stewardesses will refuse to fly there. I sure as hell wouldn't want to share cabin air with a plane full of Chinese for the long flight from China to the west coast.
You must be clairvoyant!
Pilots union files suit to halt American Airlines flights to China amid fears of the coronavirus outbreak
 
I am reporting facts, not doomsaying.

The only predictions I've made about the future are that first-world countries are probably fine and that if it gets to Africa or India then it could get ugly there.

doomsay -
Verb (intransitive) To make dire predictions about the future.
FYI, it was supposed to be a joke.
Well, half of it was. I honestly do have a weird kink about the linear phase of a growth curve for... anything. It's hard for me to look away until I see it level off.
 
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FYI, it was supposed to be a joke.
Well, half of it was. I honestly do have a weird kink about the linear phase of a growth curve for... anything. It's hard for me to look away until I see it level off.

My apologies; it went over my head. Not the first time that's happened.

Looking at the last four days, the rate of change has been fairly constant so that will make you happy. :)

If you believe the first cases were actually identified in mid-December (and that makes a lot of sense to me) then that means the number of cases confirmed exceeded SARS in ~45 days. SARS was active for nine months.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
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WHO press conference following today's meeting about to start.



edit: public health emergency declared. No mention of phase change, so I assume still Phase 4.


I didn't watch it but did read this:

https://www.who.int/news-room/detai...the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

A quote that stood out: "The Committee does not recommend any travel or trade restriction based on the current information available."

So they declare a "Public Health Emergency" and then say that^^^^.

But then again, the WHO has always stuck me as a clown-shoes operation that is more about political power and less about actual world health.
 
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1/31/20
Hubei +1220 +27%; 3 consecutive days ~30% growth
So the days of 50% day-on-day growth of confirmed cases seem to be over. But we don't have good visibility on why that is. Increases in confirmed cases have ranged 800-1300 past few days, so I suspect this reflects availability of testing equipment. Lots of other factors to consider including people not bothering to go to overcrowded hospitals. Will be interesting to see what happens when the 2 new hospitals go online within the next week.

Mainland ex-Hubei: +760 +25%
Pretty steady growth in # (not %) of confirmed cases. Assuming no shortage of testing equipment/personnel in these provinces. Not clear how much of this is from the 5mm people who left Wuhan (and larger # that likely left Hubei) before the quarantine, and how much is from new outbreaks in these provinces. Zhejiang, province with the largest case count, is still only 1/10 of Hubei's case count (it's also not very far from Hubei, relatively speaking).

World ex-China +13 +12%.
Continued slowing of growth here. But at least 4-5 transmission events outside of China, but all of these, AFAIK, have been transmissions from someone who has been in China (with most having been in Hubei), so no 'community outbreaks'.

We're now a week out from the quarantine measures taken by China (along with measures taken by its citizens), so it will be very interesting to see if/how this comes through the official data, as well as the unofficial reporting that manages to make it out of what seems to be an increasingly tight grip on social media by CCP.

Delta to suspend flights to/from China starting Feb 6. Even apart from staff not wanting to man these planes, likely nobody flying to China from anywhere in the world, so probably all airlines all over the world are going to suspend flights - can't make any money flying empty planes to China. And China client countries (those that are in no position to shut down air traffic or close borders) are not countries where Chinese will want to seek medical treatment. So it's likely China will essentially be quarantined within the next week or so.

For those wondering why I care so much about looking at daily updates rather than waiting for things to play out, well, if I were to wait for the dust to settle and the picture to be less than murky, any money making opportunities would be long gone.
 
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I didn't watch it but did read this:

https://www.who.int/news-room/detai...the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

A quote that stood out: "The Committee does not recommend any travel or trade restriction based on the current information available."

So they declare a "Public Health Emergency" and then say that^^^^.

But then again, the WHO has always stuck me as a clown-shoes operation that is more about political power and less about actual world health.
China is the second largest source of funding, after USA, for WHO.
 
Delta to suspend flights to/from China starting Feb 6
That's a week away. How many infected could leave China in that week? If the trends, as I understand them, continue we should be seeing a slowdown of the spread by then anyway. Waiting a week almost seems like closing the barn door after the horses have left. Quarantines when required, should be implemented quickly.
 
That's a week away. How many infected could leave China in that week? If the trends, as I understand them, continue we should be seeing a slowdown of the spread by then anyway. Waiting a week almost seems like closing the barn door after the horses have left. Quarantines when required, should be implemented quickly.
Agreed. But governments and big businesses are like tankers. Changing course requires lots of meetings, balancing competing interests, etc.
 
I didn't watch it but did read this:

https://www.who.int/news-room/detai...the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

A quote that stood out: "The Committee does not recommend any travel or trade restriction based on the current information available."

So they declare a "Public Health Emergency" and then say that^^^^.

But then again, the WHO has always stuck me as a clown-shoes operation that is more about political power and less about actual world health.
Agreed.
I dont put much stock in what WHO has to say. They cant get through a sentence without praising China for they way they are handling this.
ETA: I just read @drypowder 's post about China being number 2 funder. I didn't know that. Explains a lot
 
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1/31/20
We're now a week out from the quarantine measures taken by China (along with measures taken by its citizens), so it will be very interesting to see if/how this comes through the official data, as well as the unofficial reporting that manages to make it out of what seems to be an increasingly tight grip on social media by CCP.

If you don't trust China's numbers - that is, you think they are underreporting - then that will be a good test of how good/bad things really are there. If on Feb. 10 they lift restrictions and get back to business as usual, then I'd bet they have a handle on this.

If they extend restrictions, then that's a good sign things are still going sideways. The economic impact of shutting down a significant portion of the country for more than a week would be substantial and not taken lightly. I'd guess, anyway.

edit - I say a week because my understanding is that with the CNY, most of the country was off until the end of January anyway.
 
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If you don't trust China's numbers - that is, you think they are underreporting - then that will be a good test of how good/bad things really are there. If on Feb. 10 they lift restrictions and get back to business as usual, then I'd bet they have a handle on this.

If they extend restrictions, then that's a good sign things are still going sideways. The economic impact of shutting down a significant portion of the country for more than a week would be substantial and not taken lightly. I'd guess, anyway.

edit - I say a week because my understanding is that with the CNY, most of the country was off until the end of January anyway.
Absolutely. It's not just Hubei province that is operating at a fraction of usual levels. Many provinces are asking people to work from home to extent possible, closing schools, etc.

CCP will be pretty eager to lift these measures, so not doing so will be a clear warning that the situation is dire.

Also, not lifting these measures is going to increase odds of social unrest.
 
Agreed.
I dont put much stock in what WHO has to say. They cant get through a sentence without praising China for they way they are handling this.
ETA: I just read @drypowder 's post about China being number 2 funder. I didn't know that. Explains a lot
To play devil's advocate, the measures China has taken are unprecedented.

While they didn't act soon enough and are probably hiding some things (though clearly cooperating better with international disease control community than during SARS), it's hard to say they haven't taken decisive action starting late last week.
 
To play devil's advocate, the measures China has taken are unprecedented.

While they didn't act soon enough and are probably hiding some things (though clearly cooperating better with international disease control community than during SARS), it's hard to say they haven't taken decisive action starting late last week.
Too many people are viewing China's actions as posturing. By far, the CCP's biggest incentive to act is to maintain control of China. Nearly two decades ago, the CCP could substantially manage the narrative about SARS; the massive spread of internet connectivity has made it much, much more difficult to control the narrative about nCoV. People who are afraid and panicked -which happens when people face deadly diseases- can become uncontrollable people.
 
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Medical experts on Friday warned that patients who had recovered from the virus were still at risk of being infected again, and said people should avoid any mass gathering, even dancing in public parks and squares – a popular activity for exercise in China.

Zhan Qingyuan, head of infectious diseases at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, said in a press briefing on Friday that people who had already had the virus would have developed antibodies but should remain on alert so they did not get ill again.

“The antibodies may not remain for a long time, so there is still a risk that these recovered patients will be infected again,” Zhan said. “They should continue to keep themselves protected.”

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...-deadly-day-hubei-record-high-42-patients-die

Can any of our medical field members shed some light on this? I assume high levels of antigen-specific antibodies don't stick around forever since that would have a high carrying cost. But for example, how long would it take, ballpark, to drop sufficiently low enough that one could get reinfected by the same strain of of influenza virus?
 
Saw a report that due to mask shortage, China is imposing a quota of 5 per household. Sounded like it was a total of 5 masks. Keep in mind these are disposable masks. Not meant to be worn for multiple days. I imagine people are doing what they can to clean them. Also heard reports some shady Chinese are taking masks out of the trash, 'disinfecting them' and selling them. Guess where you can find a lot of masks in the trash? Hospitals! And of course, lots of substandard counterfeit masks being produced and being bought up by desperate people. Americans and Europeans aren't the only ones getting shafted by chitty (!) Chinese practices.

So if you're wondering why there are no masks available in America, it's because Chinese are buying them up and shipping them to their relatives in China.
 
Medical experts on Friday warned that patients who had recovered from the virus were still at risk of being infected again, and said people should avoid any mass gathering, even dancing in public parks and squares – a popular activity for exercise in China.

Zhan Qingyuan, head of infectious diseases at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, said in a press briefing on Friday that people who had already had the virus would have developed antibodies but should remain on alert so they did not get ill again.

“The antibodies may not remain for a long time, so there is still a risk that these recovered patients will be infected again,” Zhan said. “They should continue to keep themselves protected.”

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...-deadly-day-hubei-record-high-42-patients-die

Can any of our medical field members shed some light on this? I assume high levels of antigen-specific antibodies don't stick around forever since that would have a high carrying cost. But for example, how long would it take, ballpark, to drop sufficiently low enough that one could get reinfected by the same strain of of influenza virus?
From my limited understandings, this type of single chain RNA viruses mutates more easily. The antibodies in people who recover might not be effective towards the mutated strain.
 
Still only 9 deaths outside Wuhan's Hubei province and recoveries have now surpassed deaths.
one way to interpret this is infection, even if a serious case, is survivable with good medical treatment. Hubei, and Wuhan in particular, is too overwhelmed to provide this level of care for all the serious cases.

Most people will be able to create antibodies to fight off the virus, but the serious cases (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome) may need ventilation to buy their bodies time to produce antibodies.

assuming this is what's happening, as hospitals get more crowded in other provinces, I'd expect to see deaths outside Hubei to rise.
 
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drypowder was right again.
"....and bodies going to the incinerator, would be pretty easy to disappear folks in the fog of a large scale disease outbreak."

New Zealand reporting:

"Doubts have been raised about the official death toll, however, with claims Chinese authorities have been cremating bodies in secret."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12304547
 
That's been pretty thoroughly discredited already; apparently those "insertions" appear quite frequently in nature. So while it is possible they were inserted by man, it's much more likely they happened naturally.

That's not to say there's not circumstantial evidence that 2019-nCoV was genetically engineered. I don't think there's enough evidence to don your tinfoil hat, but there is enough to keep it alive as a possibility.
 
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Another entry from the "you can't make this stuff up" file:

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...-flu-outbreak-in-hunan-province-idUSL4N2A10GC

edit - a few notes about H5N1 from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-people.htm:

  • Currently, HPAI Asian H5N1 virus does not transmit efficiently from person to person.
  • In the majority of cases, people got HPAI Asian H5N1 virus infection after direct or close contact with sick or dead poultry that were infected with the virus.
  • Asian HPAI H5N1 viruses have infected the respiratory tract of humans, causing severe illness (e.g. pneumonia and respiratory failure) and death in some people.
  • The majority of human infections with Asian HPAI H5N1 have occurred among children and adults younger than 40 years old. Mortality has been highest in people aged 10-19 years old and in young adults.
 
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That's been pretty thoroughly discredited already
Got a source for that? I couldn't find one when I went looking after I read the article. Thanks!
 
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Sorry, I meant retracted from ZeroHedge, which I believe was the first to start reporting on it.

People probably should take anything they report with a grain of salt anyway.

edit - nope it's back up on their site. Note the author's name. :rolleyes:
 
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Hubei +1347 +23%
The growth rate of confirmed cases out of Hubei has been declining. But the absolute number continues to hover in the 900-1400 range, so I continue to believe this reflects factors such as availability of testing equipment, people not bothering to go to overcrowded hospitals, perhaps people not even being able to go (I've seen social media reports of infected people being boarded into their homes; who knows if this is real and whether these people were tested and whether those positive results are entered in the official tally). So I'll have to assume the outbreak continues to rage on in Hubei, and just saw a report that Huanggang, a city near Wuhan, has limited leaving homes to 1 person per family every other day. So the virus is likely feasting there as well.

Mainland ex-Hubei: +855 +22%
Growth in number, decline in rate. Zhejiang continues to be the province ex-Hubei with the highest case count, which is still ~1/10 of Hubei's case count.

World ex-China +46 +39%.
Big uptick in confirmed cases. Keep in mind that outside China, anyone who has been in China recently is probably getting tested if they so much as sneeze. 7 countries, apart from China, have thus far reported H2H transmission. More on this later - worrisome development on this front.

Apparently ~40 airlines have now suspended routes to/from China. But note that Chinese airlines continue to operate, so countries that do not bar them can still have Chinese coming in. In the US, foreign nationals who have been in China recently, who are not immediate relatives of US citizens or permanent residents, are barred from entry.

Hong Kong residents pressuring the pro-mainland government to close the border. That would be a huge move, and a big blow to the CCP, if it actually happens.

A lot of research, which can only be considered preliminary (very small sample sizes, not peer reviewed), is being churned out. I'll have to read the details, but articles have mentioned research suggesting males are more likely to be infected than females (respiratory system cells have more binding locations for virus), and other research suggesting East Asians are more likely to be infected than other groups - again as a result of a more favorable (to the virus) cell receptor situation (perhaps the virus didn't get the memo that race is a social construct. nCoV must belong to the neo-Nazi family of virii).
 
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Sorry, I meant retracted from ZeroHedge, which I believe was the first to start reporting on it.

People probably should take anything they report with a grain of salt anyway.

edit - nope it's back up on their site. Note the author's name. :rolleyes:

At this point Zero Hedge has a lot more credibility than the network news, cable news and major newspapers and magazines. :p

And CFF members for that matter.
 
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