Wuhan, nCV, germs....

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2/2/20
Hubei +1921 +27%
Big jump up in absolute # of cases, over the range of the past several days. Probably a result of more test kit availability, as opposed to an explosion in new infections - given the typical incubation period of 3-7 days (14 days seems to be the upper bound, and not typical), we have now lapped the start of the quarantine. So with far less interaction among people, and with most people wearing masks, seems to me the transmission rate must have plummeted. Hence my reasoning that the spike in new cases is a function of test kit availability and not new infections. If I'm missing something, please point it out.

Mainland ex-Hubei: +670 +14%
Steady daily growth in cases; 600-800 new cases per day. Percentage growth continues to drop. Zhejiang continues to be the province ex-Hubei with the highest case count, and is now only ~7% of Hubei's case count. Impossible to say how much of the growth in cases are people who were infected in Hubei and left while they still could vs new infections. Though given that we are just over a week out from the quarantine, I'd have to guess that we are seeing community outbreaks taking hold outside Hubei. That said, the case counts are tiny relative to Hubei, and I'd bet this is because of work/school closures, everyone wearing masks, and many people generally staying home. I think this will burn the virus out, but the question starts to become how long can they maintain this? How long is the CCP willing to maintain this, knowing the near-term economic impact, as well as the potential longer term economic impact - the longer this goes on, the more foreign corporations will be pressured to move parts of their operations out of China to other parts of Asia. And once those jobs leave, they aren't coming back.

World ex-China +13 +8%.
Tiny increase in cases. I think we might be at ~8 countries with H2H transmission. We now have the first fatality outside mainland China. 44yr old man in the Philippines, who is Chinese and I believe from Wuhan. Not sure if there were preexisting conditions. 44yrs old - scary! When's the last time you heard of a 44yr old dying from the flu?

The death and recovery figures are becoming increasingly puzzling to me. Looking at Hubei, sum of dead and recovered is 509. If I compare that to confirmed cases from 7 days ago (1058 as of 1/26), that's 48%. So it seems like people are having extended stays in the hospital. Maybe our medical profession members can chime in - if someone is hospitalized for the flu, what is typical duration of stay before they either recover or die? If this continues, we might see hospitals outside of Hubei become filled.
 
I’ve been expecting odd reporting given the long incubation and apparently extended recovery time. I too wonder if they are releasing people who have been treated but are not fully recovered to free up beds. I believe that this is what we’d be doing here, treating for pneumonia or other complications and pushing folks back out to stay at home asap. Of course it’s China so I assume prophylactic use of antibiotics has become the norm, not to cure the virus but to reduce the severityof secondary infections.
 
the NC connection (from 2015):
Ralph Baric, an infectious-disease researcher at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, last week (November 9) published a study on his team’s efforts to engineer a virus
with the surface protein of the SHC014 coronavirus, found in horseshoe bats in China, and the backbone of one that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in mice.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502
which leads to the Chinese conspiracy:
The available evidence most strongly supports that the 2019-NCoV virus is a vaccine strain of coronavirus either accidentally released from a laboratory accident,
perhaps a laboratory researcher becoming infected with the virus while conducting animal experiments, or the Chinese were performing clinical studies of a Coronavirus vaccine in humans.
https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01/30/on-the-origins-of-the-2019-ncov-virus-wuhan-china/
 
So, to add to the leaked bio-weapon theory...

As an escalating viral outbreak unfolds in China, only one lab in the country meets the required biosafety standards needed to study the new disease.

The lab happens to sit in the center of Wuhan, the city where the newly identified coronavirus first appeared, according to the Hindustan Times, an Indian news outlet. The facility, known as the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, is housed within the Chinese Academy of Sciences and was specifically designed to help Chinese scientists "prepare for and respond to future infectious disease outbreaks," according to a 2019 report published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
 
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Pretty strong video from a Wuhan citizen...


I found this video to be disturbing and at the same time wonder about a Red Spring? (We haven't been brainwashed. We know the truth. We're just powerless.)o_O

We're just powerless.
Consider that one for a moment. ;)


Step back a moment from the virus itself and consider what he's saying about life in Wuhan right now. No public transportation, no gas for cars, inaccessable hospitals (not that you want to go there), inability to leave the area... He mentioned medical emergencies, but what about ongoing medical supplies like heart/diabetic medicine? What about food? If you can't go to work, how do you pay for anything?
We talk about 3 days. Three days of food in grocery stores. Three days to chaos. How long will Wuhan remain under lockdown? How long will supplies last? Are regular store shipments being brought in? Is the govenment supplying food and medicine? Will there be illness, injuries and death secondary to the nCV, due to lack of resources?

It's really a nightmarish scenario.
 
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So, to add to the leaked bio-weapon theory...

As an escalating viral outbreak unfolds in China, only one lab in the country meets the required biosafety standards needed to study the new disease.

The lab happens to sit in the center of Wuhan, the city where the newly identified coronavirus first appeared, according to the Hindustan Times, an Indian news outlet. The facility, known as the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, is housed within the Chinese Academy of Sciences and was specifically designed to help Chinese scientists "prepare for and respond to future infectious disease outbreaks," according to a 2019 report published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

That crafty disease - it struck right where the defenses were strongest to try to take them out before they could react!
 
Or possibly they think they need to take drastic measures to stop the disease.

Probably it’s just police doing police stuff there.
 
I didn't bookmark it (drat) but yesterday I read an interesting scientific article about previous Chinese efforts to develop a coronavirus vaccine. The most interesting part was that the vaccine was not fully successful and actually caused a more severe infection in older test animals. You can probably also guess where the vaccine research was being done ... in Wuhan.
 
I didn't bookmark it (drat) but yesterday I read an interesting scientific article about previous Chinese efforts to develop a coronavirus vaccine. The most interesting part was that the vaccine was not fully successful and actually caused a more severe infection in older test animals. You can probably also guess where the vaccine research was being done ... in Wuhan.
I saw a similar article. The one I read mentioned the presence of a gene sequence called pShuttle-sn which is a component of the SARS virus. The author went on to explain how this proves that the virus was engineered.
 
I saw a similar article. The one I read mentioned the presence of a gene sequence called pShuttle-sn which is a component of the SARS virus. The author went on to explain how this proves that the virus was engineered.
You provided the extra input my search was lacking!

Here is the article: On the Origins of the 2019-nCoV Virus, Wuhan, China.

Did I read earlier that they found it is being passed via fecal matter? Or was I dreaming?

Yes, here is an article: Coronavirus may transmit through digestive tract, report finds. That could potentially explain some of the disease's transmission patterns.

I was intrigued why the Chinese were testing fecal samples and rectal swabs, then I read that canine coronavirus is transmitted by feces.
 
I saw a similar article. The one I read mentioned the presence of a gene sequence called pShuttle-sn which is a component of the SARS virus. The author went on to explain how this proves that the virus was engineered.
I would bet dollars to donuts this sucker was engineered. I don't buy that it started from a bad batch of bat soup.
 
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Did I read earlier that they found it is being passed via fecal matter? Or was I dreaming?


Funny thing. Was watching a Joe Rogan podcast yesterday, he was talking to some musician who had recently traveled to Hong Kong and the topic was "are Chinese the worst tourists in the world?". The guy who had recently traveled to Hong Kong said he was told that not all mainland Chinese crap in malls, but if you see crap in a mall, it was a mainland Chinese.

upload_2020-2-3_16-43-39.png
 
Did I read earlier that they found it is being passed via fecal matter? Or was I dreaming?
Dream of fecal plumes. That caused a super spreader event during the SARS outbreak. Infected person staying at hotel, had diarrhea, flushed toilet, creating fecal plumes, which the positive air pressure in his room carried to other rooms, and infected several people on that floor of the hotel.
 


big takeaways here are asymptomatic transmission (verified) and high viral load of recovered patients (also confirmed)......

the mention that we should not trust the fatalaties reported by CCP SHOULD be so obvious that we don't need to mention it..... apparently not.

For the upstream comments, I have read ZeroHedge for years. They are a bunch of paranoid free market Russians in the west with arguable ties to the Kremlin and RT. That said, their reporting is a heck of a lot more reliable than some of the stuff cited by the crowd in here that sneers at them. As an aside, if you just have a hankering to be singled out and mocked as an utter imbecile by yours truly, please jeer at a news site or opinion (especially one that I like :) ) that you know precisely ZERO about. I promise you won't be disappointed.

It is a phenomenally stupid idea that because my (amazingly narrow) little sphere of contact with ideas/sources does not include xxx, then xxx must be some fringe world of deluded loons convinced that aliens are speaking to them thru tooth fillings. Sometimes saying "I don't know, I need to learn more and educate myself" just beats the living crap out of jeering at someone who has in fact, learned more.... It is also true that when someone HAS learned more, it does not mean that person thinks s/he is "better than you." It is no great shakes to rate a 7 vs a 4 on a knowledge scale... when the scale is 5 hundred billion. It is still just a 7....

Don't expect that advice to be followed. Just thought it worth stating.
 
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I have 8 flights, 22 hours flight time, in the next 3 weeks. Gonna start taking vitamins now.
I have 6 flights w/ 9 hours flying and 9 hours in terminal layovers Thursday - Tuesday.
Started taking emergen-C as directed while looking for an excuse to cancel!
I'm more concerned with the layovers at 2 international airports then the actual Flight!
I have Lysol wipes in my carry bag & I'll try to keep me hands in my pockets.
 
Have you ever noticed that people who vehemently give advice almost never follow it themselves? Odd, that.

Anyway, so they've built and opened one temporary hospital, and a second is almost done, and now they are converting three public buildings (a stadium, an exhibition center, and a civic center) to serve as temporary hospitals (but for patients with "less-severe" symptoms).

The constructed temporary hospitals have ~2600 beds combined and the converted civic buildings will have another ~3400 combined. If my math is correct ... let's see, carry the eleven, round up the decimal ... that is ONE MILLION BEDS.

Sd3jD6e.jpg


There are ~12,7000 active confirmed cases in and around Wuhan (as of this morning) and they will soon have ~6000 temporary beds to add to the existing ~5300 beds in permanent hospitals. Or, almost enough beds for every active confirmed case.

Genius planning? Genius manipulation of reported cases? Blind, dumb luck? Your guess is as good as mine.
 
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There are ~12,7000 active confirmed cases in and around Wuhan (as of this morning) and they will soon have ~6000 temporary beds to add to the existing ~5300 beds in permanent hospitals. Or, almost enough beds for every active confirmed case.

Genius planning? Genius manipulation of reported cases? Blind, dumb luck? Your guess is as good as mine.
China has acknowledged shortage of test kits, so they are essentially saying there are many more actual cases than confirmed cases.
 
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