Article: Lessons from Maui and other disasters

There is a huge disconnect between public expectation and organizational reality. Governments have said that in many disasters they either need to evac or if they stay understand that there will be no help for an extended period. This notion that during a disaster I can just call 911 and someone will come is fantasy.

I also agree that the best/most prepared have the best chances of success (however that looks). Unfortunately we see the inverse of this far too often when a hurricane approaches: empty shelves, long lines at gas stations, etc.

Regarding the not acting when the folks in Maui saw smoke, I think things like this are a combination of normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance. The "it can't happen to me" thing.
 
Something similar happened at the World Trade Center. Too many are waiting on someone else to make a decision. Those who left the WTC immediately at signs of trouble lived. Those who waited for an evacuation order didn’t make it. I saw similar stories in Maui. People who ignored coned off areas and did not get stuck in traffic fared better than others. In videos of the Japanese tsunami, you can see people driving toward the town that was being buried, or people trying to climb a hill to higher ground while attempting to bring luggage.

Too many people are unable to act without some kind of direction.
 
Ferrisfan said:
Something similar happened at the World Trade Center. Too many are waiting on someone else to make a decision. Those who left the WTC immediately at signs of trouble lived. Those who waited for an evacuation order didn’t make it. I saw similar stories in Maui. People who ignored coned off areas and did not get stuck in traffic fared better than others. In videos of the Japanese tsunami, you can see people driving toward the town that was being buried, or people trying to climb a hill to higher ground while attempting to bring luggage.

Too many people are unable to act without some kind of direction.
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Most people are sheep, just waiting to be led.

When I was a CubScout leader and we undertook CERT training, self sufficiency of the neigborhood was the emphasis. Fire, Red Cross and Police conducted the modules of training. The assumption was that "professional" resources would not be able to get to you for at least 72hrs in a significant area wide diaster. When I called them a couple of months later about setting up another class, they said the program was suspended due to lack of interest.
Everyone has become accustomed to outsourcing our lives, because we are affluent enough to pay someone else to grow and gather our food, dispose of our garbage, bring us water, fight our fires, protect our property, tend to our wounds, teach our children...
 
georgel said:
The assumption was that "professional" resources would not be able to get to you for at least 72hrs in a significant area wide diaster.
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georgel said:
Everyone has become accustomed to outsourcing our lives, because we are affluent enough to pay someone else to grow and gather our food, dispose of our garbage, bring us water, fight our fires, protect our property, tend to our wounds, teach our children...
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From my experience in auxcomm, I likewise think govt (emergency management in this case) has become over confident in its ability to handle such a significant event. I especially think that it over relies on the resiliency of it’s theoretically quadruple backup communications systems built around First Net. This is without even considering that there could be actors that would actively work against and sabotage them and their resources.
 
noway2 said:
From my experience in auxcomm, I likewise think govt (emergency management in this case) has become over confident in its ability to handle such a significant event. I especially think that it over relies on the resiliency of it’s theoretically quadruple backup communications systems built around First Net. This is without even considering that there could be actors that would actively work against and sabotage them and their resources.
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Any centralized type comms system is vulnerable. The reason ham radio operators are usually the first comms access to an isolated area is because they are distributed, independent and self-sustaining.

The thing I didn't like about our (Charlotte radio club, W4CQ) involvement with emergency services was that if an emergency was declared, our repeaters became dedicated to emergency management use. We would no longer be able to use them for own "civilian" communications. Even if it was for our own "emergency" network. That's why I reserved one of our repeaters from the program.
 
georgel said:
Any centralized type comms system is vulnerable. The reason ham radio operators are usually the first comms access to an isolated area is because they are distributed, independent and self-sustaining.
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Agreed. Last summer they wanted to demonstrate the ability to set up comms on the fly for some event at the county Ag center. I borrowed a 40m dipole and set my HF radio up on a hand truck with a battery and made contacts. If I had my laptop, I could have just as easily run Winlink, which seems to be their go to goal.

However, I have noticed that there is an increasing demand for security, or rather secrecy in their operations and this causes me a lot of concern on the principle that if they need to be secret they’re up to no good. I have similar thoughts about policing needing to be in the open and subject to scrutiny.

Granted, you don’t want to go on an open radio frequency where every Mance Rayder can hear you’ve got food and fuel at location X, but it goes well beyond this to where you see things being hidden in normal activity or conversation. While this was always the case, it’s gotten a lot worse recently.
georgel said:
The thing I didn't like about our (Charlotte radio club, W4CQ) involvement with emergency services was that if an emergency was declared, our repeaters became dedicated to emergency management use. We would no longer be able to use them for own "civilian" communications. Even if it was for our own "emergency" network. That's why I reserved one of our repeaters from the program.
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I could see this happening in Chatha, not that I am aware of any open plan to do so, but because all the repeaters are on county towers and the county bought the DMR repeater.
 
noway2 said:
From my experience in auxcomm, I likewise think govt (emergency management in this case) has become over confident in its ability to handle such a significant event. I especially think that it over relies on the resiliency of it’s theoretically quadruple backup communications systems built around First Net. This is without even considering that there could be actors that would actively work against and sabotage them and their resources.
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I think from the tech perspective you are correct. But I do think that with some of the bigger threats we've had they have become much more comfortable saying "this is our limit, you need to SIP or affect self-rescue. We can't help you."
 
Chuckman said:
There is a huge disconnect between public expectation and organizational reality. Governments have said that in many disasters they either need to evac or if they stay understand that there will be no help for an extended period. This notion that during a disaster I can just call 911 and someone will come is fantasy.

Regarding the not acting when the folks in Maui saw smoke, I think things like this are a combination of normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance. The "it can't happen to me" thing.
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This is true, some of this is also a zero sum game, ask people to evacuate for a storm, nothing bad happens, everyone complains... Don't make a decision about having people to evacuate, you end up with Katrina 2.0. Either way someone is going to be unhappy about the decision either way.... Prime example is WRAL and everytime it rains they do nothing but pontificate about how bad a storm is going to be to the point that a severe thunderstorm warning doesn't give most people pause anymore.

Same for calling 911... People assume that 911 will be the same as it always is, someone will always come. There are a lot of assumptions in the belief in that statement.
I just had a conversation with an elected official several counties away about opening shelters for people during a disaster, she couldn't grasp the concept about HOW people would get to them... She assumed that people would simply call 911 and someone would come and take them. She was absolutely appalled when I said I would prioritize a school over a nursing home as well and couldn't understand why.

noway2 said:
From my experience in auxcomm, I likewise think govt (emergency management in this case) has become over confident in its ability to handle such a significant event. I especially think that it over relies on the resiliency of it’s theoretically quadruple backup communications systems built around First Net. This is without even considering that there could be actors that would actively work against and sabotage them and their resources.
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I agree with this to an extent but also disagree to it, using technology is fine, but you have to understand the limitations and plan if it doesn't work or fails. Continuity of operations and such. But as @Chuckman said, I would rather be upfront and say you need to be prepared to sustain yourself for X number of hours. But it's a line between being honest and transparent and fear mongering.
georgel said:
Any centralized type comms system is vulnerable. The reason ham radio operators are usually the first comms access to an isolated area is because they are distributed, independent and self-sustaining.
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One of my projects at work is to restart our AUXCOMM program and I keep getting asked what equipment we need and I keep saying a network of people who have the ability and desire to help us not 10K of SDRs and gear in a closet.
noway2 said:
Agreed. Last summer they wanted to demonstrate the ability to set up comms on the fly for some event at the county Ag center. I borrowed a 40m dipole and set my HF radio up on a hand truck with a battery and made contacts. If I had my laptop, I could have just as easily run Winlink, which seems to be their go to goal.

However, I have noticed that there is an increasing demand for security, or rather secrecy in their operations and this causes me a lot of concern on the principle that if they need to be secret they’re up to no good. I have similar thoughts about policing needing to be in the open and subject to scrutiny.
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You pretty much described my ideal AUXCOMM system....

As far as the security surrounding operations this is just the nature of the world today. During the Raleigh "protests" I listened to people broadcast locations and movements of public safety personnel with a scanner app and cheap FRS radios. Also some information doesn't need to be out in the open, not everyone needs to know where the CBRNE stockpiles or distribution points are or where certain things are stored or the plan is.


As far as the Maui wildfires it will be a while before all the information is out there and reviewed but it's going to go very much like the Camp Fire in Paradise CA I suspect. There was knowledge that wildfires could be devastating but there was pushback about mitigation. They have already pointed at the electric utility ala the Camp Fire as the cause. Honestly it's a tragedy and like any, likely could have been prevented but I'm more curious to see what happens moving forward, are there going to be stricter building codes and standards and practices to mitigate the Wildland Urban Interface and decrease the fuel loads and develop better roads for evacuation and actually test those plans or just put it back the way it was.
 
georgel said:
Everyone has become accustomed to outsourcing our lives, because we are affluent enough to pay someone else to grow and gather our food, dispose of our garbage, bring us water, fight our fires, protect our property, tend to our wounds,
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I'll be honest and observe that I wish I could say that this wasn't me, at least for the most part.
 
ProfMagoo(ret) said:
I'll be honest and observe that I wish I could say that this wasn't me, at least for the most part.
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It's all of us. But, recognizing it's a convenience instead of a necessity is the key. I almost daily think about what I would do if some part of our convenient life failed, comms, power, food, etc. And I mean that on a practical basis like what I would actually do.

If you haven't read One Second After by Forstchen, do.
 
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