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Has the Curve been flattened?

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by cold1, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. cold1

    cold1 Member Supporting Member

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    Has what we've been doing working? With all the cities and counties starting to issue stay at home mandates, is the curve getting steeper again?

    There are rumors that our county is about to issue a stay at home order. We have roughly 80,000 people in the county and 5-6 confirmed cases. The cure seems worse than the disease.

    I'm in Chatham county which is democrat controlled. It seems like all the cool Democrat controlled areas are are issuing the stay at home orders whether its merited or not.
     
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  2. Mike Overlay

    Mike Overlay Lacks seriousness Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Out of all the confirmed cases, 60,000+, has anyone seen 1st hand information from someone that has actually been thru this ordeal?

    I want to see the actual interviews on tv from someone who can tell us exactly what to expect,
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
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  3. Dave951

    Dave951 Happy to be here

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    I think they're playing this like the Spanish flu. It didn't make just one appearance and never again. There were towns that did what we're doing now and towns that didn't. Those that didn't had much higher death tolls.
     
  4. JimB

    JimB Picking it up slowly. Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    My guess is that for most people this illness isn’t that bad, but for those at risk or that develop complications it’s really bad. They don’t want to put actual people on the news to talk about it because the stories would not inspire compliance. Make no mistake, 85%+ are sacrificing mightily for the survival of 15%. Of course none of us knows who is sacrificing and who is benefiting.
     
  5. Ferrisfan

    Ferrisfan Got here as soon as I could Supporting Member

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    The “curve” is on a 2-3 week lag based on incubation times + reporting times.

    NC is currently still in a state of fewer positive cases than available hospital beds, so I would say it is working.*

    *Assumes accurate reporting of numbers.
     
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  6. Mike Overlay

    Mike Overlay Lacks seriousness Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Ive seen this stated a few times. Nowhere near close to every case requiring a hospital bed.

    These numbers dont even support that train of thought.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coron...MD9ctvN54upJSWjF8s3lwzuuxLHlUTm-wFNt_Wi5vmj5U

    *Assumes accurate reporting of numbers
     
  7. JohnFreeman

    JohnFreeman The bane of my existence Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    The US is nowhere near "curve flattening"

    upload_2020-3-26_8-9-21.png
     
  8. Meckmeister

    Meckmeister Member

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    This chart does not gauge those infected that are asymptomatic.

    Cuomo did say last night that hospitalizations were doubling every 2.1 days on Sunday in NYC. That figure 'slowed to doubling every 3.5 days Tues to 4.9 days on Wed. That is location specific, but a large sampling.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  9. JohnFreeman

    JohnFreeman The bane of my existence Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    You can't measure what you can't see.

    Hospitalizations aren't the same as infected.
     
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  10. Stogies

    Stogies Member

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    I certainly feel flattened, I have been sick since Monday (but not with the bug, no fever).
     
  11. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    First, that site has been largely debunked. They take all the worst-case methodology to crunch their numbers.

    Second, I have talked with a few people who have it/have had it, and I know one person whose mother-in-law in on a vent and not likely to live.

    One person said he thought it was allergies, but he doesn't get a fever with allergies. Quarantined, took tylenol for the fever, got well quick, back at work. He is on one end of the spectrum. The other end was, "I felt like I was hit by a bus, like the flu." That's is the other end. The other people, it is/was like "a bad cold".
     
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  12. noway2

    noway2 Senior Member Charter Life Member

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    Indeed. At least early on and still to some degree there has been this tendency to blame those with the infamous insurance industry term "preexisting conditions". Undoubtedly someone who already has breathing, or other issues, is likely to fare worse than others. However, the reports I have seen show that just being young and / or healthy doesn't mean you're going to be one of the easy cases. It has taken healthy, athletic people with no history of conditions and put them down, hard.
    This is where the US has really failed and flailed. For eff's sake, we're not even testing the suspected cases unless it would alter the course of treatment. With an up to two week latency period while people are contagious, just wait till this spreads through every fire department and police force. Then the Free Stuff Army will be out in force.

    This morning on the squawking box they were discussing why Germany seems to have much better results in terms of death and severity of the disease. For one thing, it is possible that the variant in that region is slightly different as mutated strains have been detected. However, what they did do was test very aggressively and quarantine those that were confirmed positive to prevent the spread as much as possible.
     
  13. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    Not just survival of those, but also safe operation of the healthcare system overall. It has far-reaching consequences.

    We will know mid-week next week better if it is working. Too many variables in the data right now.
     
  14. Mike Overlay

    Mike Overlay Lacks seriousness Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Thank you for the insight.

    Is the lady on vent due to the virus alone or is there a more serious underlying condition that had her health already in jeopardy?
     
  15. CHRIS_WNC

    CHRIS_WNC Member

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    The charts are base on incomplete data. Limited testing allows for limited results. More testing is becoming available so the numbers will look like they are surging.
    Also, only extreme cases are tested. Mortality of those extreme cases will obviously look higher as a percentage.

    CHRIS
     
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  16. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    She had a MI also, but we do not know which came first. Our docs do not want to put the "she's dying from COVID" tag on her if they think the MI was the sentinel event.
     
  17. NCFubar

    NCFubar Well-Known Member

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    Right now I would not put much faith in just “the curve” thing. The number of people are being tested shot up exponentially in a matter of say a week and thus did the number of “reported” cases. There’s Chuck’s point on varying levels of sickness ... younger healthier seem to have mild flu symptoms and can just self isolate and let it run its course while say older more weak immune people are hospitalized. Numbers are not concrete as in most other statistical reports ... the person generating them can make mistakes on samples, inferences, etc and skew the results by accident or pure out manipulate them to show what they what.

    My thoughts on the basic indicators is not what stuff the media and political idiots spew but what I hear from people who are actually in healthcare and aren’t trying to get ratings, re-elected or such and only saying what they are seeing in their area ... an example is Chuckman’s type statements mean more than most any thing I see on WRAL.
     
  18. cubrock

    cubrock Swell guy Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    Have we even tested a statistically significant sample base yet? With my understanding of our testing procedures, I don't see how we can do anything but make guesses as to where we are on "the curve". And the way we are making those guesses appears to be heavily skewed towards making things look worse than they might be.
     
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  19. Mike Overlay

    Mike Overlay Lacks seriousness Staff Member Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    I agree 1000 percent. Chuckmans info is greatly appreciated and I hold more value in it than anything on the media channels
     
  20. 12151791

    12151791 [This Space is Available for Rent] Benefactor Charter Life Member

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    This is interesting from JOhns Hopkins university and it makes sense on the 15 days social distancing that the administration is preaching.

    "The median incubation period for COVID-19 is 5.1 days, which means half of people who develop symptoms of COVID-19 will do so in about five days.
    The same study found that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will develop symptoms in 11.5 days after being exposed. Because of this relatively long incubation period, improvements in the metrics will lag public health efforts by one to two weeks."
     
  21. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    Something about all models are useless, but some are helpful, or something like that.

    We make predictions based on previous data; there are so many problems with the reliability of data (is all data equal among reporters, are all tests given the same weight, etc.).

    We (healthcare) are basing projected numbers on a bunch of models, all of which have some element of flawed data. When that doesn't make sense, we look at comparable and matched data from other places (Italy, Spain, etc.). So the gloom and doom come from what we've seen.
     
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  22. Meckmeister

    Meckmeister Member

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    With all the skewed models and inconsistent results on 'breaking news' every day, this virus is a long study. It will take months to find out how many are/were infected/recovered. My beef is with cities like Charlotte who will not report how severe cases were exposed (HIPPA?). I know of one case there where my niece was exposed in an ultrasound section where she works.

    Dr. Fousi said today we will be better prepared when this virus returns again in late Fall. I'm not a medical person, but some analysts think those infected on this round will habe a degree of immunity during the virus return. No vaccine by then, but maybe good medications.
     
  23. B00ger

    B00ger Das B00G Charter Member Supporting Member

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    I work with a bunch of math geeks who deal with population sampling and statistical analysis on a daily basis, one of them wrote a best case analysis for what the data shows, and his ultimate estimation was over 90,000 dead from this. I have been tracking his daily numbers and his estimated daily dead numbers, so far, have actually been lower than what we have seen. So while I am hoping his ultimate number is somehow altered by the medical system pulling through in an amazing way, this is more severe than many are giving it credit for because "it hasn't been that bad so far". Now, this man who created his model isn't a doom and gloomer and isn't freaking out...if anything he is quite the opposite. He based his numbers on math, not feeling. So, while I hope his math is proven wrong due to factors we haven't yet seen, so far it is looking like he is on the right track.

    As far as the "its only hurting those with underlying issues"...there are many of us with loved ones both young and old who fall into this category who get a bit irritated by the cavalier attitude of some that it isn't a big deal.
     
  24. CZfool68

    CZfool68 Int'l Man of Mystery Charter Member Supporting Member

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    It would be interesting to see the curves for different areas. My guess is NYC’s curve is brutal where someplace less populated is more flat. Build a wall around NYC and LA and a chunk of the problem is solved. :D

    Talked to a friend in Seattle yesterday. He said there really aren’t many deaths. The theory is because that area has a fairly large population base in their 30’s and 40’s.
     
  25. Red Marley

    Red Marley Authorized person Charter Member Supporting Member

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    This is not to question Das B00g, but in general: are these 90,000 people who would not have died except for contracting the Kung Flu? Seems to me some percentage of them likely would have died anyway of other causes, maybe a large percentage if they are in the cohort most susceptible to the virus. You know, everybody’s gonna die of something. It might be interesting to look at overall death statistics compared to a similar period pre-virus; did more people die overall, or did they just die from a different cause than they might have otherwise?
     
  26. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    Fousi may be right. This thing could be like the flu, and be seasonal. This thing could be like SARS/MERS and disappear in 6 months. We won't know until next year.

    But we DO know this is not new: we have known that SARS-CoV from Wuhan/China was a threat as far back as 2007, and a risk for a pandemic. At the time it was an asterisk with low probability.
     
  27. CZfool68

    CZfool68 Int'l Man of Mystery Charter Member Supporting Member

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    I wonder if certain populations and demographics are more likely to go tot he hospital vs other groups. Could that be making NYC’s situation worse? Or is it just proximity and mass?
     
  28. Jayne

    Jayne Just here for the memes Charter Member Supporting Member

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    I call shenanigans on that excuse. In normal times, sure. But when the .gov is happily violating rights everywhere, grabbing lots of power, stealing money/destroying our fiat currency, etc.... they're going to stand firm on patient privacy? The one thing that maybe they should violate if they're really trying to do the right thing. Nope, too important not to tell us real anonymous data!
     
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  29. CZfool68

    CZfool68 Int'l Man of Mystery Charter Member Supporting Member

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    Gee, wonder what the CDC was doing all this time.

    Studying gun violence, transgenders and planting gardens around their campus.

    Is there a way to just have this virus infect certain Gov’t agencies? :confused:
     
  30. RFMan

    RFMan Member Benefactor Life Member

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    I bet some of those whiny Department of Agriculture, etc., federal agency employees would change their tune NOW about being moved out to the hinterland...oh, pardon me, "socially distanced enabled areas."
     
  31. B00ger

    B00ger Das B00G Charter Member Supporting Member

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    No doubt its another way to look at it...there is never a way to take every single angle on a matter. But even if you say "10% would have died anyway" that's still 81k +...heck, even 50% that leaves us at 45k based on his numbers.
     
  32. noway2

    noway2 Senior Member Charter Life Member

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    This reminded me of an interesting article I read yesterday. You refer to SARS-CoV being a threat for over a decade and this virus is officially being called SARS-CoV2. The article was: https://www.sciencealert.com/genome...avirus-suggests-two-viruses-may-have-combined and it may have been posted here in another thread. Basically it says that the current virus is a chimera of two, one that infects bats in China and another that infects pangolins in Malaysia, one of these is contactable by humans and the other is not. While it is possible for viruses to combine like that in a suitable host, it does raise question as to this one's origin.
     
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  33. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    I don't know if this was man-made or modified/tweaked with an accidental (or purposeful) exposure. At the end of the day I only care so much as to want to see China effing hammered over this in the end, especially if it was altered and purposefully released. But right now we have what we have and we need to take care of it.

    What I do want to see on the other side (well, the list is long....) is the recognition that we need to have some semblance of a plan should this happen again. I realize it was a low-probability event, but even with low-probability events you can have a decent framework of a plan, and fill in the deets when it has to be activated. We had the chance to do it with flu, MERS, and SARS, and we (by "we" I mean the corporate emergency management/WMD/medical disaster community, private and public and governmental) really didn't.
     
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  34. REELDOC

    REELDOC EYES OPEN, NO FEAR Benefactor Supporting Member

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    I learned long ago in construction that when you ask for opinions or information you normally want to see what they have in common before you can make an educated decision. Charts and graphs are fine and I've used them before but I always looked at where they curves intersect and then placed a +/= factor SWAG on that point to make a decision.

    Same for reloading taking information from different manuals.
     
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  35. CZfool68

    CZfool68 Int'l Man of Mystery Charter Member Supporting Member

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    Maybe because all the large organizations are totally incompetent. Not sure there is a solution, but let’s let individuals, towns, v\counties and states keep more of their money so they can afford to plan locally. Maybe a little less reliance on the big boys for much of what is needed. Kinda like Federalism. :D
     
  36. Chuckman

    Chuckman Senior Member Sponsor

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    I used SWAG in front of my boss the other day (in COVID context), she never heard it. Now she is using it all the time. I told her I want royalties.

    The corollary to "all politics are local" is "all disasters are local." Over the years there has been an over-reliance on the feds, and some is legit, but most is not. Every jurisdiction, every agency, every hospital, needs to have a plan and resources. It's like freaking Katrina, all over again. And corporately, we never learn.
     
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  37. DrScaryGuy

    DrScaryGuy Well-Known Member

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    that chart reflects availability of testing more than anything else.
    we don't know how many people had a mild enough case to never be tested.
    we don't know how many people died before testing.
    What we know is that nobody got positive results before we did testing, a few people got positive results when we did a few tests, and a lot of people are getting positive results when we do a lot of testing.
    Since testing is still ramping up, all earlier data and data for the next few weeks will be full of holes.

    Actual infection rate is dependent on a lot of "known unknowns" and probably a few "unknown unknowns" too.
     
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  38. Ferrisfan

    Ferrisfan Got here as soon as I could Supporting Member

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    That is what happened with Spanish flu. Those infected the first go-round survived the second.
     
  39. REELDOC

    REELDOC EYES OPEN, NO FEAR Benefactor Supporting Member

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    I started spending a little money on PPE, etc. for the Hazmat team at FMC in 1999 in preparation for the Y2K non-event. After 9/11 the grant money was flowing and I spent as much as I could get including butt loads of level B and C PPE. By 2006/2007 the preparedness swords started dropping and the support for the team started dwindling. In 2007 I got tired of beating my head against a wall that was harder than my head and gave up the team. It went to hell in a hand basket and don't know if they even have a team now. Eventually all of the Level B gear was transferred to other places as well as the Blaur cylinder fill station. They had the damn audacity to ask me what I thought about that and I told them they were idiots, they did it anyway. My guess is that within a year after this is pretty much over the preparedness fever will go away again until the next event when they will be bitching again about not having enough stuff.
     
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  40. Red Marley

    Red Marley Authorized person Charter Member Supporting Member

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    Sig line material right there. And the larger they get, the more incompetent they are. This doesn't apply only to government, it applies to business and life in general; I have observed it.
     
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