How soon to normal and price collapse?

tanstaafl72555

tanstaafl72555

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Trump is going to win this one. Failing some kind of crazy "November last minute surprise" like a video of him and Melania torturing a baby to death and eating it, or him raping his son or something, He is going to blow this thing out. No one but the imbeciles who are still stupid enough to think they can turn on the TV and get "news" .... and the hard core lefttards think otherwise, and they will be revived to reality soon enough.... like Tuesday.

Given that, and given that the margin of victory is going to shock all the bobbleheads who think the information industry is anything more than agenda driven propaganda outlets, we are not even going to see any big violence. I mean, there may be some pimple faced gen z idiots out there quoting Mao and burning a few cars and stuff in the big cities, but they are mostly going to be in DEEP depression. That is my prediction. I am pretty confident in it. Confident enough that I have placed some decent sized bets on markets reacting to that scenario.

*IF* I am right, my question is this? How long will it take for the current ammo/firearm panic to subside, and we start seeing some aggressive pricing on ammo again? In my own inventory, I see that I need about 2 more cases of .223, and there is simply no way I am going to pay these prices right now.

I have PLENTY of milsurp commie stuff with rifles to shoot it, and old eyes so that any "long range" stuff is out of the question for me 200 yards is going to be the reasonable limit for me anyway. In fact, I tried to buy another Keltec sub2K for a matching set of 9 mm carbines for me and my wife, in view of the closer range stuff I would anticipate.

Now, though, I just don't anticipate anything.... or at least anything resulting from a political meltdown. I am still placing bets long term on a financial meltdown, but I think we will have another giddy pseudoboom when it rains money after Trump is elected. THAT is when I want to buy some ammo, and maybe even a HiPoint 9mm or Keltec carbine. (I am drowning in 9 mm).

Any prognosticators/soothsayers out there willing to go on the line and make a prediction? If so, say why.

We are just bs-ing here, but I am interested in what you have to say.

Thanks in advance,

Tans
 
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tanstaafl72555 said:
Trump is going to win this one. Failing some kind of crazy "November last minute surprise" like a video of him and Melania torturing a baby to death and eating it, or him raping his son or something, He is going to blow this thing out. No one but the imbeciles who are still stupid enough to think they can turn on the TV and get "news" .... and the hard core lefttards think otherwise, and they will be revived to reality soon enough.... like Tuesday.

Given that, and given that the margin of victory is going to shock all the bobbleheads who think the information industry is anything more than agenda driven propaganda outlets, we are not even going to see any big violence. I mean, there may be some pimple faced gen z idiots out there quoting Mao and burning a few cars and stuff in the big cities, but they are mostly going to be in DEEP depression. That is my prediction. I am pretty confident in it. Confident enough that I have placed some decent sized bets on markets reacting to that scenario.

*IF* I am right, my question is this? How long will it take for the current ammo/firearm panic to subside, and we start seeing some aggressive pricing on ammo again. In my own inventory, I see that I need about 2 more cases of .223, and there is simply no way I am going to pay these prices right now.

I have PLENTY of milsurp commie stuff with rifles to shoot it, and old eyes so that any "long range" stuff is out of the question for me 200 yards is going to be the reasonable limit for me anyway. In fact, I tried to buy another Keltec sub2K for a matching set of 9 mm carbines for me and my wife, in view of the closer range stuff I would anticipate.

Now, though, I just don't anticipate anything.... or at least anything resulting from a political meltdown. I am still placing bets long term on a financial meltdown, but I think we will have another giddy pseudoboom when it rains money after Trump is elected. THAT is when I want to buy some ammo, and maybe even a HiPoint 9mm or Keltec carbine. (I am drowning in 9 mm).

Any prognosticators/soothsayers out there willing to go on the line and make a prediction? If so, say why.

We are just bs-ing here, but I am interested in what you have to say.

Thanks in advance,

Tans
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I wish I had your confidence. I don't trust the American public and I don't trust the left when it comes to being fair and square. Their agenda just won't allow it.

AR10ShooterinNC said:
I would say by summer time. But you also need the Rebubs to keep control of the Senate and hopefully gain some seats in the house. If the Rebubs lose the house and senate, it will be a long 4 years.
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If the House and Senate are blue, I predict Trump will be impeached and removed. The Democrats will steam roll him.
 
kcult said:
I wish I had your confidence. I don't trust the American public and I don't trust the left when it comes to being fair and square. Their agenda just won't allow it.



If the House and Senate are blue, I predict Trump will be impeached and removed. The Democrats will steam roll him.
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There is no way you will get the supermajority in the Senate necessary to remove him. He knows this. He wears the "impeachment" like a badge of honor and vindication that he really is for "draining the swamp." His followers agree.
 
Anyway, really am interested in the ammo price component and won't respond to the political stuff lest this be moved to political section. Let's just assume I am right for the purposes of the question..... of course I could be wrong. History is full of people who were supremely confident in what was going to happen and were dead wrong.
 
tanstaafl72555 said:
Anyway, really am interested in the ammo price component and won't respond to the political stuff lest this be moved to political section. Let's just assume I am right for the purposes of the question..... of course I could be wrong. History is full of people who were supremely confident in what was going to happen and were dead wrong.
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Fair enough.

If it is a swift, lop-sided victory for Trump, and government bodies across the nation don't change drastically, I think the only thing that will stop falling ammo prices will be shutdowns for coronavirus. An uptick in BLM/Anitifa mayhem might keep driving demand, but unless supply is crippled by shutdowns, I believe it will catch up.

So, I predict by this time next year, we'll see something similar to last year's prices.
 
Jeppo said:
Seems to me that someone willing to make market bets would also be selling his ammo, powder and component stock.
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That’s why I sold a lot of ammo and guns. Most of the ammo I sold was ammo I bought when you posted up deals. I kinda need to throw you a kickback:)
 
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6 months to a year, so much depends on what happens after the election as to riots and such.
 
Majicmike said:
That’s why I sold a lot of ammo and guns. Most of the ammo I sold was ammo I bought when you posted up deals. I kinda need to throw you a kickback:)
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PayPal F&F works. 😂
 
If Trumps does manage to be re-elected and the GOP at least holds 51 seats in the Senate ... 6 to 9 month s of manufacturing to start filling the supply chain and another 6 to 9 months to fill the shelves again ... so I’d say 1 year minimum but more like 1 1/2 and even then I am not sure prices will be pre-2020 Chaos levels.
 
kcult said:
I wish I had your confidence. I don't trust the American public and I don't trust the left when it comes to being fair and square.
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“Human beings can be always be relied upon to exert, with vigor, their god given right to be stupid. “

Dean Koontz
 
It can’t stay this retarded for long. Peoples money can’t last. CC bills will come due.

but people do seem to be flush with cash and not afraid to pay outlandish prices for things.
People really are stupid.

and thus the conundrum, how long will it last.

I used to think it would start to decline when Trump is re-elected but the American public is mentally insufficient when it comes to logic and common sense.
 
My humble opinion/s:

Trump may or may not win.
The stock market may or may not go up or down.
Taxes may or may not go up or down.
The senate may or may not have a repube majority again.
The house may or may not have a repube majority again.
Ammo may or may not be readily available again.
Ammo may or may not be cheaper in the future.

Tuesday night I will watch Alaska the Last Frontier, Life Below Zero, Mountain Men or some other interesting program that I can learn shit from.

Wednesday morning I will wake up and may or may not know more than I went to bed Tuesday night.

I have run out of middle fingers, screw yous, kiss my asses, etc. Whatever happens will happen.
 
I think manufacturing and retail sales will be delayed 6-9 mo, but the second hand market is already falling. I bet it’ll be reasonable by end of March and stupid cheap by next Christmas.

I’m going to make a large bet, just can’t decide if I should bet on a big win vs a big loss.
 
Depends on how much we're expending from the Fourth Box,, I reckon.

Could be cheap from rifling through the stuff in all the Loot Boxes that spent the last couple years spending a shitton on equipment and none on training, though.
 
Considering how the rest of 2020 has gone thus far with one grandiose surprise after another, I am hedging all bets.
Heck, even a record number of tropical storms.
Crazy times.
Imma just hide and watch.
 
BigWaylon said:
Early 2022
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I agree with that. Covid keeps manufacturing lower due to social distancing and same to ship orders. I don’t expect prices to go anywhere near pre China Flu days. Of course it’s one man’s opinion. It would be nice to see a point soon where other calibers came to market. That would indicate they were getting orders filled for the most demanded caliber- 9mm?
 
As others have mentioned, I’m not expecting anything for at least a year minimum. Hopefully the election goes for Trump, but if it doesn’t I guess I’ll go for that boating trip I’ve been talking about for awhile, hopefully don’t have an accident since I like to travel with all my firearms....

But seriously, as long as their is a demand I think the prices will be high. I still get people I know asking if I have anything for sale or know anyone selling something. A lot of people of people are content with what they have and are just sitting back waiting to see what will happens. Others are coming to the party late and trying to get something for self defense, just because they are scared they don’t know what will happen. I can always use more ammo, but I can work with what I’ve got if it’s going to be awhile before I can restock. I’ll probably try to pick up a G44 for training purposes though.
All we can do at this point is sit back and watch, spend time with your family and friends, read the good book (need to do that more) and pray
 
I’m gunna say this ... because

America has raised a bunch of “little kittens”. They are afraid of everything, including their own shadow. Afraid of a virus, afraid of Antifa and BLM. Afraid there won’t be any ammo at the local store for them to buy 3 minutes before they need it.
Fear is a powerful motivator but here lately people are full of it to the point they are paralyzed.

This is not what Americans are supposed to be.

My dad tried to enlisted in three different armed forces before he found someone who would take him because of flat feet and his poor eye sight.
He didn’t stop, run or even give up. He told them he didn’t care who took him but he wanted on the next boat over to the fight.
He was a crew chief with the flying tigers, he used what he new and was good at to leverage his way in.

The country has changed so much.
 
Tailhunter said:
America has raised a bunch of “little kittens”. They are afraid of everything, including their own shadow. Afraid of a virus, afraid of Antifa and BLM. Afraid there won’t be any ammo at the local store for them to buy 3 minutes before they need it.
Fear is a powerful motivator but here lately people are full of it to the point they are paralyzed.
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Been saying this for a long long time, we are more afraid than we have ever been. We’re so afraid that we want someone to step in and take care of us, and it turns out that there are those in government that are plenty stupid to give us what we ask for instead of making us learn to deal with things.
 
rdinatal said:
Feelings, yeah, feelings man.

Seriously, why in 2 years? Why not 2024?
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I think it’s a year+ after the election, assuming C19 doesn’t shut down things next summer worse than this summer. That’s all.
 
I believe industry people are saying a year based on logistics.
 
Id chime in but my crystal ball has hazed over. Soothsaying prognostication will have to continue on its own.
R
 
Button Pusher said:
I honestly believe that Pres. Trump will have more electoral votes then in 2016, even take the popular vote.
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Personally, I believe it is going to be a Grade A ass-whipping. I think turnout records will be set. Yeah, I fully expect the Democrats to engage in fraudulent votes, but I think they are going to lose by such a wide margin, the only way for them to win is have some “voters” that cast 3+ ballots.
Another thing about Democrats...they are really sloppy when it comes to covering their tracks. I’ll use Benghazi as an example.

They left those guys asses swinging to the gators (intentionally, IMO). Then, with assistance from their whores in the media, they blame the attack on an inflammatory youtube video. They counted on the American people being sheep...”Yeah...they’ll buy it hook, line and sinker. We’ve got nothing to worry about.”

Shoulda done their homework. The people are a hell of a lot smarter than politicians think. A lot of folks out there will scour the net, use technology to their advantage, connect the dots and start asking questions. I guarantee you that bitch never thought she’d be sitting in front of a Congressional committee and having to answer questions about Benghazi.

Point 2: I’m not a Trump fan boy and I do not believe he’s the second coming of Thomas Jefferson, but I will give him credit. He’s pretty damned intelligent and usually runs 3-4 moves ahead of the Democrats. I fully suspect he’s had “people/plants” in place for a while and already has video/audio evidence of fraudulent ballots / folks voting multiple times. He’s smart enough not to play that card before Tuesday. He’ll hold it, wait for the results and will play it if Biden is declared the winner.
 
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