Patterns in 9mm Availability and Pricing.

wvsig

wvsig

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Anyone else seeing patterns in 9mm availability and pricing? It seems like the producers are shipping in mass to the retailers at the same time. CCI Blazer hits and it is stock at a few places. S&B hit the same way. Federal comes into stock on their site and then is showing up at places like Academy. No one appears to be getting large quantities.

For example today Magtech hit Brownells early today. It only lasted a matter of minutes. I saw it was there in on the back end but could not order and don't know how long it was live. Then later in the day it popped up on Natchez but sold out in about 10 minutes. I talked with a guy at Natchez and he said they sold 300 cases as soon as it hit the site. The site lags a bit so it showed in stock but could not be added to the cart.

Natchez and Brownells sold it around $250 for a case.

If you look around people like SGammo and Outdoor limited have Magtech in stock but they are charging $.59-$.80 a round.

https://www.sgammo.com/product/magt...m-luger-115-grain-fmj-ammo-magtech-9a-limit-5

https://www.outdoorlimited.com/feat...ion-9b-124-grain-full-metal-jacket-50-rounds/

So it looks like people like SGammo and ODL are getting the same ammo at the same time as some of the other sources but they are charging 2X-3X as much. Now I am sure there are different levels of pricing but it can't be 3X more for OD to buy Magtech as it is for Natchez unless OD can't get any and is buying it in the secondary market.

It seems like the retailers that have marked it up 40% are selling out immediately and those who are marking it up 3X have stock and only the most desperate buyer are buying it. Yet they are still selling it. I can see a 40% increase in these times being justified by price increases and supply issues but 300% seems excessive.

I have no idea because I do not work in the industry but I know that the smaller FFLs who buy only from distributors cannot get anything. There is ZERO availability. I spoke with one of my ammo sources today who is a dealer for Fiocchi and others and says he has no ETAs. They have pending standing orders but has no idea when they will arrive.

Thoughts?
 
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wvsig said:
Anyone else seeing patterns in 9mm availability and pricing? It seems like the producers are shipping in mass to the retailers at the same time. CCI Blazer hits and it is stock at a few places. S&B hit the same way. Federal comes into stock on their site and then is showing up at places like Academy. No one appears to be getting large quantities.

For example today Magtech hit Brownells early today. It only lasted a matter of minutes. I saw it was there in on the back end but could not order and don't know how long it was live. Then later in the day it popped up on Natchez but sold out in about 10 minutes. I talked with a guy at Natchez and he said they sold 300 cases as soon as it hit the site. The site lags a bit so it showed in stock but could not be added to the cart.

Natchez and Brownells sold it around $250 for a case.

If you look around people like SGammo and Outdoor limited have Magtech in stock but they are charging $.59-$.80 a round.

https://www.sgammo.com/product/magt...m-luger-115-grain-fmj-ammo-magtech-9a-limit-5

https://www.outdoorlimited.com/feat...ion-9b-124-grain-full-metal-jacket-50-rounds/

So it looks like people like SGammo and OD are getting the same ammo at the same time as some of the other sources but they are charging 2X-3X as much. Now I am sure there are different levels of pricing but it can't be 3X more for OD to buy Magtech as it is for Natchez unless OD can't get any and is buying it in the secondary market.

It seems like the retailers that have marked it up 40% are selling out immediately and those who are marking it up 3X have stock and only the most desperate buyer are buying it. Yet they are still selling it. I can see a 40% increase in these times being justified by price increases and supply issues but 300% seems excessive.

I have no idea because I do not work in the industry but I know that the smaller FFLs who buy only from distributors cannot get anything. There is ZERO availability. I spoke with one of my ammo sources today who is a dealer for Fiocchi and others and says he has no ETAs. They have pending standing orders but has no idea when they will arrive.

Thoughts?
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I do know this: being a small-time FFL sucks right now. What few guns are available, 80% are on an allocated status. The 3 primary distributors I use have little ammo at all. If they do, it's shotgun or some obscure rifle round.
 
Ammo makers are making the same amount of product.

Monthly orders go to distributors as per usual.

The sellers with the most buying power get their allotments first. As they are always big order customers. "For sure" money if you will.

The little guys get what's left as their orders are significantly smaller than the big guys and probably change type and amount order to order.

The little guys have to charge more to boot to hedge against how much they will have to pay for the next order of the same stuff if prices do go up for them.

Hence the guys who always order 5 pallets a month but now want 7 are going to get it. Whereas the guys who order maybe 1 in a year are having to charge more because they may have to make alternate arrangements to get the product and it could cost more than the usual avenues.

Just my useless opinion.
 
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Trevillian said:
Ammo makers are making the same amount of product.

Monthly orders go to distributors as per usual.

The sellers with the most buying power get their allotments first. As they are always big order customers. "For sure" money if you will.

The little guys get what's left as their orders are significantly smaller than the big guys and probably change type and amount order to order.

The little guys have to charge more to boot to hedge against how much they will have to pay for the next order of the same stuff if prices do go up for them.

Hence the guys who always order 5 pallets a month but now want 7 are going to get it. Whereas the guys who order maybe 1 in a year are having to charge more because they may have to make alternate arrangements to get the product and it could cost more than the usual avenues.

Just my useless opinion.
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I hear you but people like SGammo and ODL before the run on the bank were getting pallets. I am sure they are getting squeezed and the fact that they only sell ammo has got to hurt but 3X seems extreme.
 
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dubnali said:
I do know this: being a small-time FFL sucks right now. What few guns are available, 80% are on an allocated status. The 3 primary distributors I use have little ammo at all. If they do, it's shotgun or some obscure rifle round.
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I talked to a smaller FFL today who was saying the same thing.
 
I am also not condemning those selling at higher prices. You have to do what you have to do to keep the doors open. I see that a lot of the smaller guys were working a volume model and maybe got caught in a race to the bottom and now there is not enough inventory to make it up in volume so they have to charge what they charge. All I know is I am happy I don't have to buy. I am still fascinated watching it from the sidelines.
 
Also the places that have but charging more per round might just being to slow down the sale of it. I know that sounds odd but try this:
Store A and B both get in 500 boxes. Store A puts it out for $10 a box, sells out in 10 mins to folks that just put it in cart as fast as they could and checked out. Store made x amount of $ but it’s gone- no more ammo, folks check in to site, see no ammo, move to next site.

Store B list it at $20 a box max of 2 boxes per order. Folks log on, grab 2 boxes, bitch and moan about cost, look around site and see good prices on 4 more items, think
“ heck might as well get them items to make it worth it to get ammo”. Maybe they spend $50-100 on other stuff. Store still makes money but also has ammo left so that when that customer talks about it on Gun forums, their buddy jumps over to store site just see if ammo is still that expensive- and the cycle starts again


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mj1angier said:
Also the places that have but charging more per round might just being to slow down the sale of it. I know that sounds odd but try this:
Store A and B both get in 500 boxes. Store A puts it out for $10 a box, sells out in 10 mins to folks that just put it in cart as fast as they could and checked out. Store made x amount of $ but it’s gone- no more ammo, folks check in to site, see no ammo, move to next site.

Store B list it at $20 a box max of 2 boxes per order. Folks log on, grab 2 boxes, bitch and moan about cost, look around site and see good prices on 4 more items, think
“ heck might as well get them items to make it worth it to get ammo”. Maybe they spend $50-100 on other stuff. Store still makes money but also has ammo left so that when that customer talks about it on Gun forums, their buddy jumps over to store site just see if ammo is still that expensive- and the cycle starts again


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SGammo and ODL only sell ammo. o_O
 
You left out Store CTD. They list a 500 round case of 9mm reloads for $650 plus tax and shipping. o_O
 
Trevillian said:
Ammo makers are making the same amount of product.

Monthly orders go to distributors as per usual.

The sellers with the most buying power get their allotments first. As they are always big order customers. "For sure" money if you will.

The little guys get what's left as their orders are significantly smaller than the big guys and probably change type and amount order to order.

The little guys have to charge more to boot to hedge against how much they will have to pay for the next order of the same stuff if prices do go up for them.

Hence the guys who always order 5 pallets a month but now want 7 are going to get it. Whereas the guys who order maybe 1 in a year are having to charge more because they may have to make alternate arrangements to get the product and it could cost more than the usual avenues.

Just my useless opinion.
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Lots of small shops operate off of net 30,60 or 90. Some large shops are likely paying up front. That can play a factor, I know it always did in the food business

There are two main ways to control demand, raise prices and ration supplies. Invariably people will complain about both, but also if they want to buy any, but it is sold out. No real way for a store to win anymore.
 
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wvsig said:
I hear you but people like SGammo and ODL before the run on the bank were getting pallets. I am sure they are getting squeezed and the fact that they only sell ammo has got to hurt but 3X seems extreme.
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I'm basing my thesis on big chains vs "ammo only" retailers too.

Bass pro, cabela's, other big brick and mortar national franchises hell even walmart, all order huge sums of ammo to distribute to their many locations.

They also sell a million other products so ammo in general is a small part overall of their inventory.

Push comes to shove, places like that will opt out before they are told they can't have it as it is only a small part of their income stream. So ammo makers make sure they give them what they want first. They are the best and most consistent customers. But at some point can opt out of it becomes an issue...

The "ammo only" retailers are forced to hedge their future income against getting what they order at the price they order it for. Even if they order as much as a national chain. They depend on that one product type to survive.

Even if they get what the chains get normally. If it's not available next order and they don't get it. They are SOL. The chains have a million other products to maintain income. The "ammo" places bottom line depends exclusively on said ammo being in stock and how much they pay for it.

If they can't get the product they need or have to use alternate (pricier) means to get it. They either have to charge more now to ensure they float long enough to get it or they go under...

It's all they have tied to their bottom line...
 
wvsig said:
SGammo and ODL only sell ammo. o_O
Click to expand...

Then they might price it higher just to get folks that have no ammo and will pay more just to have some ammo. Someone who is new to shooting and think 200 rounds is a lot of rounds. They may thinking long game, not just how fast they can send what little they get in out


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Trevillian said:
I'm basing my thesis on big chains vs "ammo only" retailers too.

Bass pro, cabela's, other big brick and mortar national franchises hell even walmart, all order huge sums of ammo to distribute to their many locations.

They also sell a million other products so ammo in general is a small part overall of their inventory.

Push comes to shove, places like that will opt out before they are told they can't have it as it is only a small part of their income stream. So ammo makers make sure they give them what they want first. They are the best and most consistent customers. But at some point can opt out of it becomes an issue...

The "ammo only" retailers are forced to hedge their future income against getting what they order at the price they order it for. Even if they order as much as a national chain. They depend on that one product type to survive.

Even if they get what the chains get normally. If it's not available next order and they don't get it. They are SOL. The chains have a million other products to maintain income. The "ammo" places bottom line depends exclusively on said ammo being in stock and how much they pay for it.

If they can't get the product they need or have to use alternate (pricier) means to get it. They either have to charge more now to ensure they float long enough to get it or they go under...

It's all they have tied to their bottom line...
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Walmart no longer sells 9mm ammo. @Jeppo bought it all.
 
Jeppo said:
You left out Store CTD. They list a 500 round case of 9mm reloads for $650 plus tax and shipping. o_O
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See they always raised prices before there was in increase in demand or a supply issue. The mere hint of one and 300 to 400 percent more overnight, and if I remember right cancel pending orders too
 
mj1angier said:
Then they might price it higher just to get folks that have no ammo and will pay more just to have some ammo. Someone who is new to shooting and think 200 rounds is a lot of rounds. They may thinking long game, not just how fast they can send what little they get in out


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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Right I can see that but both operated on a volume model churning inventory until the run on the bank. I understand why they might be doing it I am just interested in the mental exercise of what is really happening.
 
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wvsig said:
Right I can see that but both operated on a volume model churning inventory until the run on the bank. I understand why they might be doing it I am just interested in the mental exercise of what is really happening.
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All trucks likely ship within a day or two of each other. Before they make enough to warrant another delivery. Federal isn't going to be keen on posting stuff on their own site till their customers are likely to have product as well. Good way to anger most of your big accounts.

I doubt there is more behind the scenes shenanigans happening. Just logistics
 
Also large quantities is relative. 300 cases is a lot of ammo. At least 3 entire pallets i would wager
 
shadowsbane said:
All trucks likely ship within a day or two of each other. Before they make enough to warrant another delivery. Federal isn't going to be keen on posting stuff on their own site till their customers are likely to have product as well. Good way to anger most of your big accounts.

I doubt there is more behind the scenes shenanigans happening. Just logistics
Click to expand...

I am not as interested in the arrival time as the pricing disparity.
 
shadowsbane said:
Oh if you think that is bad, you should see the cost of iv fluid just by going across town
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Wife works in healthcare I understand medical supply pricing vs actual cost.
 
The other thing I am seeing is what time vendors update their website. Brownells seems to be earlier in the day while Natchez is somewhere in the afternoon. I don't have a bead on Midway. Academy has almost nothing available online. Everything is flowing to the stores and you have to buy in person. Bass Pro and Cabelas are a mess. Their online is so messed up if it shows in stock you can't get an order to go through. There is serious lag time on their sites.
 
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Me. said:
If it all sells out in 10 minutes, the question isn’t what do some places price it high, the real question is why do some places price it low.

If you can sell something for 25 cents, or sell that same thing in almost the same time (for less work) for 40 cents.... what would you do?
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I agree which is why you have seen Federal move from $16.99 a box to $19.99 a box directly on their site. I imagine the next round will $20.99. With each price increase the ammo buyer is setting a new bar of what they are willing to pay.

You also so see that the $.50+ ammo sits long. A fair amount eventually sells but it take a lot longer.
 
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wvsig said:
I agree which is why you have seen Federal move from $16.99 a box to $19.99 a box directly on their site. I imagine the next round will $20.99. With each price increase the ammo buyer is setting a new bar of what they are willing to pay.

You also so see that the $.50+ ammo sits long. A fair amount eventually sells but it take a lot longer.
Click to expand...
And there you find the perceived market value. Free market capitalism, ain't it great? :D
 
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Huge shipment of ammo hit Grab a gun today. WWB as low as $23.99 or 100. Lots of different skus from lots of different manufacturers. Prices were $.23 to $.32 a round. It arrived in two waves. First wave sold out in 20 minutes. Second one is moving faster.
 
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It looks like the it sits on the shelf price is $.55-$.60 steel cased ammo and $.66 for brass cased stuff. Ammo is still shipping and being sold in the $.30 range but it sells out fast. It seems like more and more places are selling in the $15.99-$16.99 for a box of 50 right now. This is moving up. For example Federal direct was at $15.99 and the last batch they sold was a t $19.99. Still sold out fast.
 
JBoyette said:
All you small FFL holders, Blackhills only sells to dealers. No Wholesalers.
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And today at their prices it might be considered affordable. LMAO
 
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JBoyette said:
I sold more 20 rnd boxes of blackhills then bulk 115 gen 1000 cases of cheap stuff
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Good for you. Most people are not buying black hills for plinking. In good times they are $.65 a round.
 
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wvsig said:
Good for you. Most people are not buying black hills for plinking. In good times they are $.65 a round.
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100%

I found it hard to be competitive with everyone else. So I went in the other direction with Blackhills. Worked well having SD ammo with SD pistols
 
People are supposed to be dying without government stimulus money right now.

yeah right.

People see to have plenty of disposable income.

:D:D:D
 
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