Here is the "secret" right out in the open.
Prey on "nostalgia for a time that never existed". If you do this, you can figure out collectible markets.
The recipe:
- Mass produced items of a type that were desirable in their time
- Market: People older than 50 with money lying around due to comfort and grown children
- Target market "collectors" wish they could have had "that thing" when they were younger (or had a lesser version of that thing)(or "had that and should have never sold it").
Let's play this out. The '57 Chevy Bel Air. Was it the best car of it's day? No. Was it the best 1957 car? No. But it hit all the elements because the oldsters remembered a day when they had one or a buddy hot-rodded one. Back in 1965, no one cared about some old fifties Chevy except the teenager who could only afford that junker. Later..... highly sought collectible.
Follow same pattern for 60s muscle cars (which are dogs compared to modern vehicles).
Follow same patter for Star Wars toys.
Follow same pattern for 1959 Gibson Les Pauls (now worth hundreds of thousands of dollars yet you can buy a nearly identical brand new one for a few thou).
Follow same pattern for pristine comics/sports cards.
Any time you can get someone in their 50s-60s (with loads of spare cash) to pine for something they desired (or saw as valuable) "back in the day" you have the makings of a collectible market.
Fine china and silver tea service? Was only for the rich, then people got old and they too could afford it.... those folks die off, the stuff is down at Goodwill for $5. But for a while, it was desirable.
Just pick out what folks love, point at the "deciding moment" in the wave, and get one of those before people notice the value, or notice the wave is passing.
I first-gen iPhone fits the bill. No one actually had one (statistically), but it will be a big deal.
With all this info..... what handgun will be collectible? John Wick guns. Kids loved the movies, wished they could be that cool, loved the guns in the movies (and their video games). When they hit 60 and are bored with life but want something they thought was awesome, it will be John Wick guns.
But not just "any" John Wick guns. It will either be:
- The based gun in unmolested configuration (with the box of course)
- A good example that is exactly like the gun in the movie.
If you want to up your game and collect cars.... the cars from Fast & Furious 1 will do the job. Just as I'm being sent off to the home, I am absolutely certain that good-condition mid 90's "ricers" that were never owned by a teenager will be selling at Barret Jackson for a quarter million dollars. So certain that I would put them in my 401K if I were younger.