So says the fireworks guy.It's about that time....
So says the fireworks guy.It's about that time....
This. This right here. It is interesting if you read between the lines in the SKY IS FALLING drive-by Media stories. Many of them say that most people see mild or no symptoms, almost the same as the common cold, but can pass this on to others. You know what that sounds like? A common frickin cold.
I had something for 2 weeks in mid-January that kicked my ass. It quickly when from my nose to my lungs and I coughed up crud for a week. And some of you know that I have many many vectors with our Chinese cousins. From overnight paperwork, product samples to actual real live Chinese people. Meeting and Working and Drinking Tea and Breaking Bread...
Hmmm......
If it was spreading here that long ago, the hospitals would be full of viral pneumonia cases.
Maybe we aren't pussies who don't run to the ER when we get the sniffles.
Jenny and I have had the same thing. We're both smokers so we're hanging on to our crud a little longer.
I don’t understand how someone at an epicenter like that is not screened before boarding flight and traveling thousands of miles in a few hours. CrazyThe individual returned from trip to Washington State, from that long term care facility where the outbreak is happening there. No telling who else is infected now from the trip on the plane, and now here. Fun times ahead.
This. This right here. It is interesting if you read between the lines in the SKY IS FALLING drive-by Media stories. Many of them say that most people see mild or no symptoms, almost the same as the common cold, but can pass this on to others. You know what that sounds like? A common frickin cold.
I had something for 2 weeks in mid-January that kicked my ass. It quickly when from my nose to my lungs and I coughed up crud for a week. And some of you know that I have many many vectors with our Chinese cousins. From overnight paperwork, product samples to actual real live Chinese people. Meeting and Working and Drinking Tea and Breaking Bread...
Hmmm......
Maybe we aren't pussies who don't run to the ER when we get the sniffles.
Jenny and I have had the same thing. We're both smokers so we're hanging on to our crud a little longer.
not a common cold, a common flu, which is most likely what this individual had in December. It is u likely Coronavirus was in triangle at that particular time.
yes the hysteria is overrated to an extent, but with new strains, there are too many unknowns to lose control. Right now there’s not a lot of data in pediatric cases and mid life seems mostly in clear, but with unusual rate of serious pulmonary complications that can be life threatening.
The numbers are worth taking seriously. 90k (+) cases and ~3k deaths (more will come from the 90k currently sick)...lets call that 3% lethality. At pandemic scale, let’s say 100 million people get the disease, that leaves about 3 million dead. Those are not # to brush off. While it sounds cold, this is less problematic at societal level of mostly affecting older people who are retired. However, if you take few million people of out the workforce of future workforce, that can have serious consequences.
not all workers will be easily replaced. Some specialized weapons material engineer at DARPA can’t be replaced the way a retail clerk can. A once in century scientist at google critical to their innovation engine...then loss at any large amount strains the system to reach equilibrium regardless of job type.
Well aware of the numbers... the numbers that are stated... indeed, it seems that this is similar to the Spanish Flu, based on available tests... which mostly is following high profile Areas such as Wuhan, Diamond Princess, Iran (door-lickers), Italy.... and of course those that are dead.
What I am stating is that we have not Tested the Full Population as this is a novel coronavirus, there are not enough test kits like there are for the Flu A, B, H1N1, H5N1, etc...
There are not enough tests, nor accepted procedures to ensure a high confidence of Positives.
1. If we were to test 6 Billion people right now, I think you would see that MILLIONS would test positive.
2. We are only identifying deaths that did test positive... we are not identifying the positive recoveries. (Well, except for those that are tested and identified)
3. The data is skewed... Statistics 101... not enough observations in the denominator yet, to get a true R0, Mortality Rate and Recovery Rate
4. Even the CDC, Hopkins and WHO data will admit this in the appendices...
5. Although not a Post-Graduate Work in this field, I know data and when there is not enough to make a declaration. Which is what a lot of folks are doing now.
Can it change.. absolutely. Panic.. you bet. But it has not reached 1918 levels.... yet.
In the absence of data, at what point is it worth taking (drastic ?) measures to try to prevent it from getting to that point? At what point does the cost of keeping schools, non critical industry, travel, etc open exceed that of closing them down? What good is closing the proverbial barn door after the horses bolt and leave?Can it change.. absolutely. Panic.. you bet. But it has not reached 1918 levels.... yet.
The joint WHO- China report sheds some light on this. Don't recall the numbers off top of my head, but the population attack rate was fairly low outside Hubei. So while the virus is spreading, it doesn't seem to be spreading as quickly as influenza, despite there being no immunity in the population.Well aware of the numbers... the numbers that are stated... indeed, it seems that this is similar to the Spanish Flu, based on available tests... which mostly is following high profile Areas such as Wuhan, Diamond Princess, Iran (door-lickers), Italy.... and of course those that are dead.
What I am stating is that we have not Tested the Full Population as this is a novel coronavirus, there are not enough test kits like there are for the Flu A, B, H1N1, H5N1, etc...
There are not enough tests, nor accepted procedures to ensure a high confidence of Positives.
1. If we were to test 6 Billion people right now, I think you would see that MILLIONS would test positive.
2. We are only identifying deaths that did test positive... we are not identifying the positive recoveries. (Well, except for those that are tested and identified)
3. The data is skewed... Statistics 101... not enough observations in the denominator yet, to get a true R0, Mortality Rate and Recovery Rate
4. Even the CDC, Hopkins and WHO data will admit this in the appendices...
5. Although not a Post-Graduate Work in this field, I know data and when there is not enough to make a declaration. Which is what a lot of folks are doing now.
Can it change.. absolutely. Panic.. you bet. But it has not reached 1918 levels.... yet.
If you are serious, you completely missed the point.
Pneumonia isn’t the sniffles and if hundreds or thousands had it locally there would be a bunch of pneumonia deaths in local hospitals.
lmao, at you guys thinking you had this weeks or months ago. If it was spreading here that long ago, the hospitals would be full of viral pneumonia cases.
While most who are infected don't need medical attention, the elderly and those with comorbidities often get seriously ill. Think about how many Americans are obese, or have diabetes or heart disease or smoke or some combination of these things. Again, the local hospitals would be full if it's been spreading for several weeks in your area.
I can't wait for my flights at the end of the month, all connecting through Atlanta.
Anyone wanna have coronavirus party when I get back? Maybe get everyone infected similar to a chickenpox party
my wife is currently on stop 1 of 4 locations this month. she may or may not stop home in between some of them. most are through atlanta.I can't wait for my flights at the end of the month, all connecting through Atlanta.
Anyone wanna have coronavirus party when I get back? Maybe get everyone infected similar to a chickenpox party
I live with a FA too!I live with a flight attendant. I’ve given up on trying not to get infected and have shifted my energy to boosting my immunity. Yay.
The president said that he ended the Federal Drug Administration’s restrictions on developing testing kits, allowing more laboratories to develop the medical tests without filing with the FDA.
“The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we are doing, and we undid that decision a few days ago,” Trump said.
CDC doctor Bob Redfield praised Trump for removing the restriction.
“It’s, really, very important,” he said. “It’s what’s changed the availability of testing overnight.”
lmao, at you guys thinking you had this weeks or months ago. If it was spreading here that long ago, the hospitals would be full of viral pneumonia cases.
While most who are infected don't need medical attention, the elderly and those with comorbidities often get seriously ill. Think about how many Americans are obese, or have diabetes or heart disease or smoke or some combination of these things. Again, the local hospitals would be full if it's been spreading for several weeks in your area.
I hear ya! My GF is a NP in an urgent care. I'm doomed.I live with a flight attendant. I’ve given up on trying not to get infected and have shifted my energy to boosting my immunity. Yay.
Some of the local Providers think we have been seeing it in the community and didn't realize it. One thinks its already world wide. It started in December and the Chinese tried to keep it hidden. The news media didn't really start reporting on it until early February-ish? For some who get it symptoms are like the flu with a key symptom being shortness of breath. However "many other individuals will just get a runny nose or a sore throat. Some people with the virus don’t seem to show any symptoms at all.
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...oms-and-how-deadly-is-covid-19/#ixzz6FoURzCmm
It may not be that far-fetched. Having said that. 1. Wash your hands. 2. Keep your hands out of your face.
So I'm thinking this virus is either less contagious than influenza OR it's much milder than we think it is. I'm looking at various countries', including China's, ability to contain the virus. We don't even try to contain influenza, we just mitigate the harm. You could argue that these countries aren't containing the virus and that it's spreading undetected - well, ok, if that's the case, then it's much milder than we think it is. Seems to me the data does not support the notion that the virus is both more contagious than influenza AND as dangerous as we think it is.
You're making my point for me. I suspect the true mortality is way lower than these figures. But we won't know until we start seeing results of sero surveys, which will give us an idea of the attack rate on the population.The average person spreads the flu to 1.2 people. The rate of COVID is well over 2 the last time I read the figures (that is significant)
According to John’s Hopkins, the flu infects 1 BILLION people worldwide annually with a maximum of 646000 deaths (.0646%). In the US, it’s 9.3-45million cases with 12-64k deaths. That’s between .13% and .142% mortality.
COVID has 92,818 cases worldwide with 3,253 deaths (3.5% mortality). 118 cases in the US alone with 11 deaths (9.32% mortality)
You're making my point for me. I suspect the true mortality is way lower than these figures. But we won't know until we start seeing results of sero surveys, which will give us an idea of the attack rate on the population.
Separately, a dog in Hong Kong was confirmed infected after repeated tests. Weakly positive result; probably human to dog transmission.
Many people have the flu and never see a doctor; their cases are not counted in flu statistics.My point is opposite of yours.
How is the transmission rate and mortality rate of COVID being higher than the flu (percentage wise, given that it’s a new thing) mean the flu is worse? The flu is more common but COVID, according to the data, is worse
You suspect the the data coming out of places like China is LOWER than what’s being reported? If anything, they’ve got much higher rates of infection/death and the means to prevent the news from getting out.
Many people have the flu and never see a doctor; their cases are not counted in flu statistics.
Similarly, many people may have a mild case of COVID-19 and never see a doctor or would not qualify for what is still generally limited testing if they did; their cases are not counted in COVID-19 statistics.
I believe @drypowder has expressed the idea that the number of "confirmed" cases has been artificially limited by adequate testing not being available. For a given number of deaths, a higher number of cases results in a lower mortality rate. There are actually two pretty good demonstrations of that in the current data.
South Korea - 40 deaths - 6,283 cases - 0.64%The plague ship's passengers and crew were very heavily tested and South Korea has gone all-out with a massive testing program. In both cases, the more intensive testing would provide a clearer picture of actual contagion and mortality.
Plague Ship - 6 deaths - 696 cases - 0.86%