Wuhan, nCV, germs....

I think, for reasons that should be obvious, the US and other westernized nations are choosing to try to save their economy and stock markets in particular. The choice is economy, overwhelming healthcare system, and protecting the populace. You can’t have all three.
Right, and my point is that trying to minimize economic disruption is a fool's errand because the quicker viral spread will cause much greater disruption on the back end.

Our population is vulnerable because of the high degree of obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc. - more so than countries with younger demographics, lower rates of obesity, diabetes, etc.
 
All you guys just keep eating out all those meals. You know those third world workers in the kitchen will use every good sanitation method possible to keep you safe. Just like they did in their original countries. You should visit those kitchens sometime. You’d get a taste of reality.

Worried about interacting with others in public but running down to the diner to eat? Little crazy don’t you think. And how about that Walmart produce that gets fondled by pickers, stockers, and the general public. LOL.

Exactly. Without a full 100% quarantine of everybody for several months this is just going to spread. Everywhere. IMO, which is admittedly short on expertise, I think assuming that your household IS going to be exposed and having a plan to survive it is the best path for most. Be as strong and healthy as possible. Have supplies on hand.

If you have the means a few months in a secluded home would be great. But most can’t make that happen. How many can quit work and disappear for a while? Not many.
 
All you guys just keep eating out all those meals. You know those third world workers in the kitchen will use every good sanitation method possible to keep you safe. Just like they did in their original countries. You should visit those kitchens sometime. You’d get a taste of reality.

Worried about interacting with others in public but running down to the diner to eat? Little crazy don’t you think. And how about that Walmart produce that gets fondled by pickers, stockers, and the general public. LOL.

You do know that the sanitation practices of the vast majority of restaurants even one's with immigrants in the kitchen are 100X better than the avg home kitchen. Most people's home cooking environment would not pass a health inspection. :rolleyes:
 
The problem with trying to slow it down is that we have to slow everything else down for the duration. That will be disruptive and result in lots of casualties as well. Not half a million, but losing several points of GDP for several months has a high cost also.

One cost could be Bernie in the White House. How many direct and indirect deaths would that instigate?
The cost of being too slow to act could be Trump losing and a Democrat sweep. I would have thought this impossible a few weeks ago, but no longer do.

The government is acting too slowly and that is going to backfire on Trump. Putting Pence in charge of this was a mistake. That task force is not acting or communicating with sufficient urgency.

Long term, Trump will not be blamed for government acting too aggressively - all the initial criticism when he shut down air travel from China has melted away. He WILL be blamed for acting too slowly and downplaying the threat, and that will stick as the spread explodes and overwhelms our healthcare delivery system.

I'm with Scott Gottlieb on this:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1236473220783636481

Trump should bring Gottlieb back and make him head of the coronavirus task force, replacing Pence. This guy understands the threat and is communicating the appropriate level of urgency. Listening to Pence talking about this is infuriating to me - and you'd be hard pressed to find a bigger Trump supporter on this forum. Imagine how independent voters feel.
 
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You do know that the sanitation practices of the vast majority of restaurants even one's with immigrants in the kitchen are 100X better than the avg home kitchen. Most people's home cooking environment would not pass a health inspection. :rolleyes:

Is the x100 number you referenced real data from somewhere, or just something you pulled out of the air? Because that sounds pretty bogus to be honest.

I go in a lot of restaurants due to my job (anything from fast food to high end), and see things on a regular basis that would make just about anyone think twice about eating out. There ain't no restaurant around cleaner than my kitchen, not by a long shot.
 
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The world ex-China had as many new confirmed cases today as China did at its peak.

Western Europe, US and Canada combined have about as many confirmed cases as all of China ex-Hubei, and the growth rate in the west far surpasses that of China ex-Hubei, so the west will double China ex-Hubei very soon, on their way to surpass all of China. A real pity given that we saw what happened in China, and had a chance to prepare, but reacted far too slowly.

Nothing the Democrats, media, deep state, never-Trump Republicons threw at Trump worked, but his handling of this virus could be his undoing. If I could get in touch with him, I'd beg him to replace Pence as head of the coronavirus task force and replace him with someone who can light a fire and get this country to respond the way it needs to to avoid going full Wuhan not just in one city, but across the entire country - and if that happens, the Democrats will sweep White House, Senate, House, many governorships and state legislatures.

And everyone complaining about the idea of government temporarily banning cruise lines will have far more to complain about as their gun rights get eviscerated, among many other steps that the left will take.
 
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That is interesting. ~1/3 of Americans have diabetes or pre-diabetes.

why do you think this will have so much impact on trump future?

I was in undergrad at time and barely remember, but I don’t recall the Obama response to H1N1 being especially remarkable. Few attempts to research the events of 2009 seem to mostly corroborate that. No mass quarantines, fumbling with various ideas, CDC hoarding initial diagnostic outreach blah blah. And that ended up killing 12,000+ Muricans.

Is Timing the only difference (starting vs ending term)? Maybe you have some reflections on that episode in 2009? I was only like 20 YOA, and as you might imagine, barely perceptive of the whole thing (does anyone care about anything other than sex and grades at 20?—nuclear winter probably wouldn’t have turned my head much lol)
 
why do you think this will have so much impact on trump future?

I was in undergrad at time and barely remember, but I don’t recall the Obama response to H1N1 being especially remarkable. Few attempts to research the events of 2009 seem to mostly corroborate that. No mass quarantines, fumbling with various ideas, CDC hoarding initial diagnostic outreach blah blah. And that ended up killing 12,000+ Muricans.

Is Timing the only difference (starting vs ending term)? Maybe you have some reflections on that episode in 2009? I was only like 20 YOA, and as you might imagine, barely perceptive of the whole thing (does anyone care about anything other than sex and grades at 20?—nuclear winter probably wouldn’t have turned my head much lol)

Trumps response has been slow compared to the Obama administration’s response in 2009. The initial response was based on real science by experts in the administration not on what the President or the VP thought. We can argue or consider if the actions that were taken were effective but the approach to the pandemic by the two administrations is in stark contrast.

In 2009...

  • The Obama administration declared swine flu, or H1N1, a public health emergency six weeks before H1N1 was declared a pandemic.

  • No H1N1 deaths had yet been recorded in the United States.

  • Six months after that initial declaration, when more than 1,000 deaths had occurred, Obama himself declared H1N1 a national emergency
For me the biggest difference is that the Obama administration let the CDC and the scientific medical community lead on the approach and the messaging. They did not make it political. Trumps vulnerability comes from him and his surrogates politicizing the issue.

Also his appointment of Pence to lead the task force even though he is completely unqualified to do so is a mistake. It will be a source of criticism down the road. Pence does not have the background to lead the task force. He has no expertise in the field of medicine or medical research. He couldn’t even contain the spread of HIV in ntravenous drug users in Indiana when he was Gov. His responses to that crisis was slow and not based in accepted scientific approaches.

One of my best friends is an Anesthesiologist and practices critical care at the University if KY in Lexington and has been on briefings and calls with the Governor there and the CDC lead by the VP and he said it is clear Pence has no idea what he is taking about. He doesn’t understand enough about medicine and the science behind what is happening to speak intelligently about it let alone lead the task force.
 
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For me the biggest difference is that the Obama administration let the CDC and the scientific medical community lead on the approach and the messaging. They did not make it political. Trumps vulnerability comes from him and his surrogates politicizing the issue..
Who made it political? I remember the media and Dims making it political from the start, criticizing him for being too hasty and doing too much.
 
Who made it political? I remember the media and Dims making it political from the start, criticizing him for being too hasty and doing too much.

Criticizing the slow non scientific response is not making the issue political IMHO. It is pretty much stating the obvious.

I personally am not worried about it because I live in a low population density area. Even though my wife works in healthcare and will be on the front lines of this I don’t see it effecting me personally. My wife will take proper science based medical precautions and protect herself and others if a case comes to her hospital. My buddy at UK is going to see patients with this infection. In his role it is more a matter of when not if. They are one of 2 major healthcare hubs in the entire state. If I lived in a major city I would be taking more precautions but here in the foothills chances are it is going to burn itself out before hitting us.
 
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Also his appointment of Pence to lead the task force even though he is completely unqualified to do so is a mistake. It will be a source of criticism down the road. Pence does not have the background to lead the task force. He has no expertise in the field of medicine or medical research.
Were you under the impression that the government does science or medicine? I hate to break it to you but the government _response_ to this is a political and bureaucratic machine. It is supposed to gather information and options from experts and then prioritize and implement programs as needed. For that you don’t need a doctor you need someone plugged into the DC system that can get things done. Pence may or may not be a great choice for the job, but other than something like a medical company CEO that happens to be a doc, he is as qualified for that job as any.

Remember that Trump has been fighting the establishment in DC for 3 yeas now. Pence is unfortunately one of the few people he trusts to have his back. If the bureaucracy was doing their job and supporting and implementing the Presidents policy priorities instead of their own, maybe he would feel more able to let the head of the CDC or someone like that run the effort.

But when the CDC came out a few weeks ago and “broke” the story in a way that was critical of the admin (incorrectly) and the CDC person who did it was the sister of Rod Rosenstein, what do you expect?
 
That is interesting. ~1/3 of Americans have diabetes or pre-diabetes.
It is more interesting that the article reported that over 2/3 of Chinese have diabetes or pre-diabetes. Combine that with the respiratory problems associated with heavy smoking -for which older Chinese men are infamous- and China's bad air pollution and the risk factors for severe results become interesting.
 
Criticizing the slow non scientific response is not making the issue political IMHO. It is pretty much stating the obvious.
You didn’t read what I said. The Dims did the opposite (because they attack everything Trump does, regardless of what it is), until it became obvious he has right, then they switched the attacks 180 degrees and now they are saying it is not enough.

I know who is politicizing it, and it isn’t Trump.
 
Trumps response has been slow compared to the Obama administration’s response in 2009. The initial response was based on real science by experts in the administration not on what the President or the VP thought. We can argue or consider if the actions that were taken were effective but the approach to the pandemic by the two administrations is in stark contrast.

In 2009...

  • The Obama administration declared swine flu, or H1N1, a public health emergency six weeks before H1N1 was declared a pandemic.

  • No H1N1 deaths had yet been recorded in the United States.

  • Six months after that initial declaration, when more than 1,000 deaths had occurred, Obama himself declared H1N1 a national emergency
For me the biggest difference is that the Obama administration let the CDC and the scientific medical community lead on the approach and the messaging. They did not make it political. Trumps vulnerability comes from him and his surrogates politicizing the issue.

Also his appointment of Pence to lead the task force even though he is completely unqualified to do so is a mistake. It will be a source of criticism down the road. Pence does not have the background to lead the task force. He has no expertise in the field of medicine or medical research. He couldn’t even contain the spread of HIV in ntravenous drug users in Indiana when he was Gov. His responses to that crisis was slow and not based in accepted scientific approaches.

One of my best friends is an Anesthesiologist and practices critical care at the University if KY in Lexington and has been on briefings and calls with the Governor there and the CDC lead by the VP and he said it is clear Pence has no idea what he is taking about. He doesn’t understand enough about medicine and the science behind what is happening to speak intelligently about it let alone lead the task force.

thanks for perspective. It’s odd I have almost no memory of h1n1 in USA. Did not even know how bad it was in US much less government responses.

I think Pence just botched his opportunity here but it was not an inherently bad call by trump. Pence is #2 in command of country, and with that kind of approval authority task force had a real chance to act swiftly and independently. That obviously did not happen
 
You didn’t read what I said. The Dims did the opposite (because they attack everything Trump does, regardless of what it is), until it became obvious he has right, then they switched the attacks 180 degrees and now they are saying it is not enough.

I know who is politicizing it, and it isn’t Trump.

Trump is not right on the handling of the outbreak. He is contradicting the experts. He is showing that he is outside of his depths. He doesn't understand the science and his ego is getting in the way of his administrations efforts to get accurate information out to the public. He is even contradicting Pence for perceived political gains. Trump is 100% politicizing the outbreak.

On Friday, as coronavirus infections rapidly multiplied aboard a cruise ship marooned off the coast of California, health department officials and Vice President Mike Pence came up with a plan to evacuate thousands of passengers, avoiding the fate of a similar cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, which became a petri dish of coronavirus infections. Quickly removing passengers was the safest outcome, health officials and Pence reasoned.

But President Donald Trump had a different idea: Leave the infected passengers on board — which would help keep the number of U.S. coronavirus cases as low as possible.... “Do I want to bring all those people off? People would like me to do it,” Trump admitted at a press conference at the CDC later on Friday. “I would rather have them stay on, personally.” “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault,” Trump added, saying that he ultimately empowered Pence to decide whether to evacuate the passengers.


He is more concerned about how he looks politically vs the health of the people on the ship.
 
Were you under the impression that the government does science or medicine? I hate to break it to you but the government _response_ to this is a political and bureaucratic machine. It is supposed to gather information and options from experts and then prioritize and implement programs as needed. For that you don’t need a doctor you need someone plugged into the DC system that can get things done. Pence may or may not be a great choice for the job, but other than something like a medical company CEO that happens to be a doc, he is as qualified for that job as any.

Remember that Trump has been fighting the establishment in DC for 3 yeas now. Pence is unfortunately one of the few people he trusts to have his back. If the bureaucracy was doing their job and supporting and implementing the Presidents policy priorities instead of their own, maybe he would feel more able to let the head of the CDC or someone like that run the effort.

But when the CDC came out a few weeks ago and “broke” the story in a way that was critical of the admin (incorrectly) and the CDC person who did it was the sister of Rod Rosenstein, what do you expect?

Yes the Govt does science and medical research. CDC, FDA, USDA, NSF, and NIH are perfect examples. You are not breaking anything to me. This is a perfect example of not understanding the distinction between Politicians and Career Civic Servants and their roles in Govt. Politicians are scum of the earth. They are power hungry ego maniacs whose chose their profession for the power it gives them. Politicians and their flock are in DC to support and implement the Presidents policies. Those people come and go on 2 and 4 year schedules. Civil servants spend their entire lives working for the good of the country. At times it may or may not be effective or efficient but it is not political.

Career Civic Servants are not. The avg Civic Servant in the State Dept, NIH, CDC, Dept of Defense, Energy, CIA, FBI etc.... will work for multiple administrations from both sides of the aisle. They are there to do the work of and protect the United States of American and up hold its Constitution. Their primary responsibility is not to any given Presidents agenda. Their primary responsibility is to the United States of America not its president not its politicians. I have lived in the DC area for a lot of my life. I know people who work for these agencies all their lives. My father worked for Health and Human Services for most of his Career. His politics did not effect his job. They did not enter into his decisions within his role as a public servant. He had his own political view but they were not part of his working life. This distinction is often missed by people who have never real time in the DC metro area.

The heads of these agencies and the workers in them are there because they are experts in their fields. When their expertise is needed they are called upon to consult and advise the politicians. Smart politicians keep their mouths shut and listen to the experts. They take the council and the recommendations and craft policies based on them. They don't craft policies that contradict the experts in order to make the numbers look better than they are. Smart leaders know when to lead and when to allow the experts in a particular field take the reins. Trump has not done this. It is not a political hatchet job to see how his off the cuff style had caused his administration and its response to this issue problems. I mean he stated that the number of cases in the US was going to be 0 by April. There is not a single expert in the scientific or medical community that would back up such and absurd statement. I understand that people support Trump but he has messed up on this one. He as messed up on the messaging and he has messed up on the response. Unfortunately for us his ego will not allow him to admit it and correct it.

In the end this back and forth on a gun message board is a waste of time. We do not know the real numbers in China. We also don't know the real numbers out of places like Iran and Italy. We have no idea how many people have the virus but no major symptoms. The #1 think we don't know is how many people will get cold like symptoms and how many will end up with major respiratory failure.

What we do know about this virus is that it is highly contagious. That its rate of infection is closer to the common cold than the flu which means it will spread fast. In large population centers it will be almost impossible to stop its spreading rapidly. We know that the rate of infection in Wuhan appears to have peaked and is declining. With all these unknowns along with what we do know it seems like caution in action and words is appropriate. Consistent and scientific based messaging is called for. Twitter is not the platform for that kind of communication. We need to let the experts advise and lead. I am still hopeful that our President is able to do this.
 
Trump is not right on the handling of the outbreak. He is contradicting the experts. He is showing that he is outside of his depths. He doesn't understand the science and his ego is getting in the way of his administrations efforts to get accurate information out to the public. He is even contradicting Pence for perceived political gains. Trump is 100% politicizing the outbreak.

On Friday, as coronavirus infections rapidly multiplied aboard a cruise ship marooned off the coast of California, health department officials and Vice President Mike Pence came up with a plan to evacuate thousands of passengers, avoiding the fate of a similar cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, which became a petri dish of coronavirus infections. Quickly removing passengers was the safest outcome, health officials and Pence reasoned.

But President Donald Trump had a different idea: Leave the infected passengers on board — which would help keep the number of U.S. coronavirus cases as low as possible.... “Do I want to bring all those people off? People would like me to do it,” Trump admitted at a press conference at the CDC later on Friday. “I would rather have them stay on, personally.” “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault,” Trump added, saying that he ultimately empowered Pence to decide whether to evacuate the passengers.


He is more concerned about how he looks politically vs the health of the people on the ship.

yeah that sucks. What was point of putting VP as head of task force if decisions would still require PODUS approval?

I thought the play with Pence was so that the task force had the appropriate authority, otherwise why not instill a more medically inclined person in the role? Wild.

on the political side anyway, I don’t see this as a Dems VS Repubs thing. It appears to be a “in elected office vs not elected office” behavior.

For ex. Governors and other leaders dealing with outbreak continue the “no big deal, low risk, blah blah blah “ talk, regardless of party affiliation. Fundamentally they’re not wrong given available statistics, the problem is without continuity of messaging the public is only becoming more alarmed and confused
 
Trump is not right on the handling of the outbreak. He is contradicting the experts. He is showing that he is outside of his depths. He doesn't understand the science and his ego is getting in the way of his administrations efforts to get accurate information out to the public. He is even contradicting Pence for perceived political gains. Trump is 100% politicizing the outbreak.

needs-of-many-outweight-needs-of-few.jpg


With an incubation period of up to 14 days where people are infections but asymptomatic for a portion of it, and then can't tell the early symptoms from any average cold... I don't disagree with Trump.
Where are we going to put 3000 potentially infected people for 2-3 weeks? We've already seen people released from quarantine too early only to have symptoms show up after they've been out in the general public for days. Since people are still trying to grapple with the transmission vector, what else can we do at this point?

Without forced quarantines, we get more situations like the couple we've already had where people are told they're covid19 positive and ASKED to self-segregate... only to have them go to university mixers and elementary schools.
 
Apparently Trump will be speaking today. I pray he changes his messaging. Waving this off as less of a concern than the flu, while the citizenry is clearing out Costco and Walmart, and the markets are tanking, is being utterly tone deaf. You can't lead if no one believes you, and that's what is happening now.

Best thing he could do is replace Pence with his former FDA commish Scott Gottlieb - he's been on CNBC for weeks warning that we are acting too slowly, and he has been absolutely correct. That would give markets confidence that the administration is on top of this, and can start thinking about the light at the end of the tunnel. Right now, we are just staring into the abyss.

The people will forgive Trump for acting more aggressively than necessary. They will not forgive him for failing to lead and act decisively. Thus he should err on the side of being too aggressive.

This could be Trump's Hurricane Katrina, except 100x worse.
 
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A spouse of a teacher at one of the schools on Long Island, NY tested positive for the virus, they put all the kids in the auditorium and then sent them home by bus or if they had their own cars they were told to go back home. Great idea, put everyone in the same room to infect them all.
 
A spouse of a teacher at one of the schools on Long Island, NY tested positive for the virus, they put all the kids in the auditorium and then sent them home by bus or if they had their own cars they were told to go back home. Great idea, put everyone in the same room to infect them all.
Stupidity has no limit.
 
Yes the Govt does science and medical research. CDC, FDA, USDA, NSF, and NIH are perfect examples. You are not breaking anything to me.
Those do some science and fund a lot of outside science. I don’t have a lot of faith in their results though (see below).
This is a perfect example of not understanding the distinction between Politicians and Career Civic Servants and their roles in Govt. Politicians are scum of the earth. They are power hungry ego maniacs whose chose their profession for the power it gives them. Politicians and their flock are in DC to support and implement the Presidents policies. Those people come and go on 2 and 4 year schedules. Civil servants spend their entire lives working for the good of the country. At times it may or may not be effective or efficient but it is not political.

Career Civic Servants are not. The avg Civic Servant in the State Dept, NIH, CDC, Dept of Defense, Energy, CIA, FBI etc.... will work for multiple administrations from both sides of the aisle. They are there to do the work of and protect the United States of American and up hold its Constitution. Their primary responsibility is not to any given Presidents agenda. Their primary responsibility is to the United States of America not its president not its politicians. I have lived in the DC area for a lot of my life. I know people who work for these agencies all their lives. My father worked for Health and Human Services for most of his Career. His politics did not effect his job. They did not enter into his decisions within his role as a public servant. He had his own political view but they were not part of his working life. This distinction is often missed by people who have never real time in the DC metro area.
Or maybe those in the DC bubble are blind to the fact that they are mostly working for their own careers and agencies rather than the public. Most of the programs have long outlived their usefulness, and the original purpose for which they were founded. When was the last time you heard of one declaring victory and packing it up? I thought not.

Also, if you have been able to watch what has been going on for the last three years and can say any of that baloney about unbiased civil “servants” working for the people with a straight face, you are still in the DC bubble.

And they DO work for the president, who appoints their bosses to implement his policies and agenda. That’s the way our system works. That’s how NASA (for example) turned into a global warming cheerleader and a Muslim outreach effort (in the direct words of Obama’s appointed NASA chief as coming directly from Obama). How’s that for nonpartisan unbiased aerospace science?

The heads of these agencies and the workers in them are there because they are experts in their fields. When their expertise is needed they are called upon to consult and advise the politicians.
No, they are there because they got hired to do a job and in most cases (not all) couldn’t get the equivalent private sector jobs. They are there for the same reasons that anyone stays in any job, with the extra protections of the civil service code to insulate them from the consequences of poor performance.

They are experts at producing the results their bosses want to see, which in some cases may overlap with doing and reporting actual science.

You should see me on a cynical day :)

Smart politicians keep their mouths shut and listen to the experts. They take the council and the recommendations and craft policies based on them.
“Smart politicians” (assuming such a thing can be found, let’s go with skilled or savvy politicians) take the expert advice for what it is - presumably but not always the best available assessment of the available data from somebody who knows almost nothing about anything outside that narrow expertise. Which makes them qualified to talk about the the technical aspects of the issues but utterly clueless about balancing it against all the other risks, costs, opportunity costs, first, second and third order consequences, etc...

That’s what good business leaders and sometimes skilled politicians are able to do. There are multiple dimensions to any issue. This one is no exception. An epidemiologist is an expert in disease spread but cannot possibly do a good job outside that skill set silo.
They don't craft policies that contradict the experts in order to make the numbers look better than they are. Smart leaders know when to lead and when to allow the experts in a particular field take the reins. Trump has not done this. It is not a political hatchet job to see how his off the cuff style had caused his administration and its response to this issue problems. I mean he stated that the number of cases in the US was going to be 0 by April. There is not a single expert in the scientific or medical community that would back up such and absurd statement. I understand that people support Trump but he has messed up on this one. He as messed up on the messaging and he has messed up on the response. Unfortunately for us his ego will not allow him to admit it and correct it.
Possibly true. But he has more and better info than you. You do realize that sometimes the government lies to us believing that it is for our own good right? We can debate about whether that is an ethical or useful way to deal with things but if the assessment is that calming people down is better (in both overall health and economic impact) than inciting a panic, then the expert’s “this is terrible and the best way to minimize loss of life is x,y, and z” may be technically true but only for direct disease impacts. How many more suicides will there be if we go into a serious recession? (A lot). How many won’t get other medical care needed if movement is restricted? How much more malnourishment will there be in a serious recession? There are indirect effects in the other direction too of course. If the virus really takes off and overwhelms the capacity of the health care system a lot of bad things happen too.

The point is that it isn’t black and white and isn’t simple.

That said, while I support Trump, he isn’t impressing me on this.
 
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A spouse of a teacher at one of the schools on Long Island, NY tested positive for the virus, they put all the kids in the auditorium and then sent them home by bus or if they had their own cars they were told to go back home. Great idea, put everyone in the same room to infect them all.

They had a procedure for announcing things and/or closing/dismissing during the school day. No “ideas” were involved in the execution of those plans.
 
Much better briefing today, in terms of tone. I think/hope Trump is starting to accept that downplaying this will backfire badly.

I still think Pence should be replaced. This guy doesn't even understand exactly what community transmission is, after all his intensive work with the task force. I'm not sure he appreciates the potential for exponential growth. They are still allowing cruises to run. Big mistake. They are decanting hundreds of people off that floating petri dish and filling up our limited quarantine centers. And we are going to have to do this with every ship that has even one infected person. At 2500-3500 passengers+crew on most of these cruises, the odds of having at least one infected person is not insignificant.
 
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I am disgusted by the media. Bet you haven't seen this video of California Governor Gavin Newsom praising Trump's handling of the Grand Princess cruise ship.

Newsom, during the presser, gave an update on the status of the Trump administration’s response to the Grand Princess cruise ship set to dock in Oakland, California, on Monday. Twenty-one people aboard the ship have tested positive for the virus.

“Over the past couple of days, President Trump has said that he would prefer if none of the passengers aboard these cruises landed on U.S. soil. Did he mention any of that to you in your conversation?” a reporter asked Newsom.

Newsom confirmed that he had a private conversation with the president, who told him, “We’re gonna do the right thing,” and, “You have my support, all of our support, logistically and otherwise.”

The governor added that Trump said, during their conversation, “everything that I could have hoped for.”

“And we had a very long conversation, and every single thing he said, they followed through on,” he continued, praising Vice President Mike Pence as well: "So I’m just not interested in finding daylight on those statements because every single thing his administration — and it stars at the top, including the vice president — has been consistent with the expectation that we’d repatriate these passengers and we’d do it in a way that does justice to the spirit that defines the best of our country and the state of California."​

ABC News buried the video on Twitter and later on Good Morning America without any mention of Newsom or Trump.
 
I am disgusted by the media. Bet you haven't seen this video of California Governor Gavin Newsom praising Trump's handling of the Grand Princess cruise ship.

Newsom, during the presser, gave an update on the status of the Trump administration’s response to the Grand Princess cruise ship set to dock in Oakland, California, on Monday. Twenty-one people aboard the ship have tested positive for the virus.

“Over the past couple of days, President Trump has said that he would prefer if none of the passengers aboard these cruises landed on U.S. soil. Did he mention any of that to you in your conversation?” a reporter asked Newsom.

Newsom confirmed that he had a private conversation with the president, who told him, “We’re gonna do the right thing,” and, “You have my support, all of our support, logistically and otherwise.”

The governor added that Trump said, during their conversation, “everything that I could have hoped for.”

“And we had a very long conversation, and every single thing he said, they followed through on,” he continued, praising Vice President Mike Pence as well: "So I’m just not interested in finding daylight on those statements because every single thing his administration — and it stars at the top, including the vice president — has been consistent with the expectation that we’d repatriate these passengers and we’d do it in a way that does justice to the spirit that defines the best of our country and the state of California."​

ABC News buried the video on Twitter and later on Good Morning America without any mention of Newsom or Trump.

lol such a joke. And you bet correctly. I had NOT seen, heard or known about that. They would air a crack head quoting negativity on trump before they would even dream about airing positive comments from high profile and or cross-partisan government officials. Gotta control the narrative
 
The people going on Cruise ships right now aren't very smart.
And they are imposing a massive externality on everyone else. And cruise prices are probably much cheaper now, so the incentive structure is all wrong. A ticket price that factors in the true cost would be prohibitively expensive, but unless we impose that cost on the cruise lines, they will keep operating.
 
My sister in law and niece have a 10 day trip to Italy planned in 2 weeks...
They intend to go!
I have questioned this decision but they "are excited", "it's been planned for so long", "I already took the vacation days",
I might not get a refund", "we're both healthy" and many other stupid reasons.
I just don't understand.
Sorry but I won't be delivering their groceries when they get quarantined!
 
I am disgusted by the media. Bet you haven't seen this video of California Governor Gavin Newsom praising Trump's handling of the Grand Princess cruise ship.

Newsom, during the presser, gave an update on the status of the Trump administration’s response to the Grand Princess cruise ship set to dock in Oakland, California, on Monday. Twenty-one people aboard the ship have tested positive for the virus.

“Over the past couple of days, President Trump has said that he would prefer if none of the passengers aboard these cruises landed on U.S. soil. Did he mention any of that to you in your conversation?” a reporter asked Newsom.

Newsom confirmed that he had a private conversation with the president, who told him, “We’re gonna do the right thing,” and, “You have my support, all of our support, logistically and otherwise.”

The governor added that Trump said, during their conversation, “everything that I could have hoped for.”

“And we had a very long conversation, and every single thing he said, they followed through on,” he continued, praising Vice President Mike Pence as well: "So I’m just not interested in finding daylight on those statements because every single thing his administration — and it stars at the top, including the vice president — has been consistent with the expectation that we’d repatriate these passengers and we’d do it in a way that does justice to the spirit that defines the best of our country and the state of California."​

ABC News buried the video on Twitter and later on Good Morning America without any mention of Newsom or Trump.

And this is the problem. In a private meeting he said the right thing. He allowed the experts to dictate the right course of action. He then "allowed" the task force to do the right thing. Newsom correctly acknowledged it. The problem is that within hours of the private statements and actions Trump contradicted himself with a pubic statement that is being quoted over and over again. It exactly this this confusion and mixed messaging that is sending panic through the financial markets. It is muddying the waters and slowing the flow of good information to the public. Even within his own cabinet and administrator close advisers are struggling with Trumps inability to be consistent with the science and the proper messaging. This is a perfect example of where he is failing as a Statemen and a President.
 
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The important thing about that graph is that the death rate for cases below the line is probably about 1%. Cases above the line are probably more like 10%.
 
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The important thing about that graph is that the death rate for cases below the line is probably about 1%. Cases above the line are probably more like 10%.
And the other important thing is that in practice, the total numbers won't be the same. If China just treated it like the flu, they might have hundreds of millions infected; but because they acted decisively (after initially downplaying it), they have less than 100k infected (or less than 1mm infected if applying a CCP fudge factor).

We don't know yet how effectively this can be contained without masks. The countries with large outbreaks that have gotten a handle on the infection rate are all East Asian, and they are all using masks as part of the containment effort.

We don't have enough masks or the cultural acceptance to adopt this approach (though the latter will be easy to overcome with a bit more fear).
 
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And the other important thing is that in practice, the total numbers won't be the same. If China just treated it like the flu, they might have hundreds of millions infected; but because they acted decisively (after initially downplaying it), they have less than 100k infected (or less than 1mm infected if applying a CCP fudge factor).

We don't know yet how effectively this can be contained without masks. The countries with large outbreaks that have gotten a handle on the infection rate are all East Asian, and they are all using masks as part of the containment effort.

We don't have enough masks or the cultural acceptance to adopt this approach (though the latter will be easy to overcome with a bit more fear).

Maybe we can convert vagina hats into masks? We could gets a small percentage of the country wearing those right away. And maybe more than we know.
 
Could also DIY masks. US.gov is lying when they say masks don't help prevent infection. Of course they do, that's why medical personnel are wearing them when dealing with people who have a respiratory infection like Covid-19. Better to be honest about it and say we don't have enough to go around and we need the masks for medical personnel.

Masks would crush the viral spread. The infected don't send infectious droplets into the air, the uninfected don't inhale said droplets, and the masks discourage people from touching their face.
 
S. Korea and Japan look like they have a handle on their epidemics, so all of East Asia looks to be in control of the viral spread. Middle East outside of Iran looks not bad.Europe is in trouble. Growing quickly in Italy (though the lockdown and heightened awareness will surely make a difference); and France, Spain and Germany are in the thick of it with over 1500 confirmed cases each. As testing in the US ramps up this week, we will be joining them.

Meanwhile, where it's warm, it's hard to not notice that the Philippines has only 33 cases despite the substantial migratory work ties to China. Too hot, and too poor to have widespread ice cold AC. Not conducive to spread of this virus.
 
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