Wuhan, nCV, germs....

To put it into perspective on testing. South Korea is test more people daily than we have tested in total. Without the testing you can't track the transmission. If you can track transmission you cannot contain it. Shutting the boarders once the virus is already here is not going to stop this thing. Right now S. Korea and China are the 2 places that have gotten control of this virus. We are not doing any of the things that helped these 2 countries slows the spread of the virus. We are doing sell than Italy. Think about that less than Italy.....
The fact that the virus is already here doesn't mean you shouldn't stop importing more cases and seeding new outbreaks, especially from countries where things have already started to go hockey stick growth. Look at China - the origination of the pandemic - they are imposing travel restrictions on other countries.

Further, Sweden has decided to stop testing outside of patients already in hospital. Do we really want travel from countries taking this let it burn through the population approach?

Agreed, we are way behind the East Asian countries, who are the model on how to contain the virus. This is why I think Gottlieb needs to head the coronavirus task force. He has been out talking about what needs to be done - FOR WEEKS. While the CDC dicked around with their crappy test and idiotic testing criteria and Pence kept telling us the risk to Americans remains low.

The other thing E. Asian countries have is widespread mask use. Taiwan ramped up mask production by adding many new production lines; they are churning out 10mm masks every day (for a population of 24mm), and masks are plentiful there. If we adopted E. Asia's mask wearing approach, we could stop this virus dead in its tracks - and do so with much less economic impact than shutting down the economy.
 
Last edited:
The fact that the virus is already here doesn't mean you shouldn't stop importing more cases and seeding new outbreaks, especially from countries where things have already started to go hockey stick growth. Look at China - the origination of the pandemic - they are imposing travel restrictions on other countries.

Further, Sweden has decided to stop testing outside of patients already in hospital. Do we really want travel from countries taking this let it burn through the population approach?

Agreed, we are way behind the East Asian countries, who are the model on how to contain the virus. This is why I think Gottlieb needs to head the coronavirus task force. He has been out talking about what needs to be done - FOR WEEKS. While the CDC dicked around with their crappy test and idiotic testing criteria and Pence kept telling us the risk to Americans remains low.

The other thing E. Asian countries have is widespread mask use. Taiwan ramped up mask production by adding many new production lines; they are churning out 10mm masks every day (for a population of 24mm), and masks are plentiful there. If we adopted E. Asia's mask wearing approach, we could stop this virus dead in its tracks - and do so with much less economic impact than shutting down the economy.

Right but US citizens are going to be allowed back in so you are really not stopping the flow of the virus into the country. The cat is already out of the bag. Most experts believe that it is all ready here EVERYWHERE..... but the testing is so far behind. The data we are looking at today are really snap shots of the real time data from a week ago. NIH is now telling people not to gather in groups and to practice social distancing in all areas not just known hot spots because they assume it is already in most communities. It is not the importation of new cases that is going to overwhelm the system its the spread of the virus that is already here.

The mask thing is not what is slowing the spread. It is identification of the infected, tracking of the infected and isolation of the infected and social distancing. S Korean his using cell phone data and cc data to track the path of infected individuals which allows them to mark spots within and area as a potential hot spot. They are using this data to map the spread of the virus. That is doing more to slow the virus than the masks would. I am all for wearing a the mask properly + social distancing+ self quarantine + hand washing etc.... All of it would help but we are doing almost none of it fast enough on a national level.

It took 3 weeks for Italy to go from 20 infected to 10,000+. Again I cannot stress it enough at this point we are more like Italy than the E Asian countries like S. Korea.
 
Last edited:
Some pics from Concord today

2 Walmarts and a Food Lion almost completely out of TP. Insanity
babc45d7ef6e75c36afcdbcc9cb4169f.jpg
ad60169231ccf78d8924b9f666fb6217.jpg
4fa7c9ea86a20b19c886ccc385471e01.jpg
 
I am using newspapers to wipe, just as soft...;)
 
So how much does this hurt Trumps re-election? A Biden win is looking a lot more feasible now.
Interesting thought, one I was just thinking of twenty minutes ago while chatting with a friend.
I dont know that it will. I mean, the only thing he did 'wrong' with this, and there is a reason I use the quotations, is downplaying it at first.
I dont think he was wrong in doing so, but it WILL be used against him.
 
OH, and I hit up the local Food Lion in Arcadia for a card, forgot to buy said card. Anyway, while in I wondered around and they, too, were completely out of TP.
My buddy works for a distribution company with/for/whatever Harris Teeter, he was in 3 stores today, said all were out and people were freaking out.

The FL I was at was packed. I asked the cashier (who was the assistant manager) if it's normally like this - he said no way, this is two or three times busier than normal.



I fear that this is kicking off our next recession.
Stock market is falling quickly, people are being quarantined and things shutting down, which further hurts economy.
I worry a bit. But, being a student of history, and being through two recessions so far as an adult, know it'll be ok.
Be smart, be cool, it'll work out.
 
Interesting thought, one I was just thinking of twenty minutes ago while chatting with a friend.
I dont know that it will. I mean, the only thing he did 'wrong' with this, and there is a reason I use the quotations, is downplaying it at first.
I dont think he was wrong in doing so, but it WILL be used against him.
But his “Trump” card was the economy. Wall Street is one thing but if we see a downturn on the Main Street economy I think it really hurts him. And the down turn is now. Imagine how much money is lost in Greensboro with no ACC and NCAA tournament games. How much money is lost in High Point with Furniture Market. What ever happens it will be used as a way to expand government that part is a certainty.
 
But his “Trump” card was the economy. Wall Street is one thing but if we see a downturn on the Main Street economy I think it really hurts him. And the down turn is now. Imagine how much money is lost in Greensboro with no ACC and NCAA tournament games. How much money is lost in High Point with Furniture Market. What ever happens it will be used as a way to expand government that part is a certainty.
Yes, agreed.
It's a lot of pieces. It's not just stock market (and I know, this is what youve said), but it's all these sporting events. Ok, you might think 'big deal, no sports.'
But what about all the employees. No, not players, but the cashiers etc. All the food sales/concessions - they are manned by folks and those folks get their supply from a distributor
Merchandise. Same thing.

Italy is pretty much shut down .

Canada is extending it's March Break (spring break to us) an extra two weeks.

Nothing coming in from overseas.

And, locally, yes, I worry about the Furniture Market next week. Especially since that's the business my father is is...and one of his biggest suppliers is in Italy...

Yes, it's going to start affecting locals.



Im not a trump fan or hater. I look at him like many other Presidents - some good, some bad.
Yes, the great economy is his big thing. That fails...yeah, he'll struggle.
But will Biden be able to beat? I dont think so.
 
This just proves people are soiling their undies in their media-induced panic.

not really...it just shows most people don’t know WTF they need to actually be prepared.

A 2-4 week surplus of ANYTHING (including TP ) in house is the more rationale action at this point than the alternative. Will there be a “f%#+ it point” where so many people have it that quarantine no longer meaningful? No idea. Will you be infected before or during that period? Unknown.

if you or someone in house gets virus and it becomes known, ALL will be in quarantine. I for one have no family here and therefore no one to get me groceries or asswiping paraphernalia and Gunbelts oral ass cleaning services charge by the mile for at-home service (and I’m very far). Anyone who can’t confidently assume there will be uninflected reliable people they can count on externally, then only choice is to stockpile for at least 2 weeks as that seems to be the minimum home quarantine timeline.

for me, the real question here, is why TF has NOTHING else sold out? Lol. Like, what is going to be the substrate for the poop production process that will put all that TP to use? Food seems to be taken far less seriously than TP lol
 
not really...it just shows most people don’t know WTF they need to actually be prepared.

A 2-4 week surplus of ANYTHING (including TP ) in house is the more rationale action at this point than the alternative. Will there be a “f%#+ it point” where so many people have it that quarantine no longer meaningful? No idea. Will you be infected before or during that period? Unknown.

if you or someone in house gets virus and it becomes known, ALL will be in quarantine. I for one have no family here and therefore no one to get me groceries or asswiping paraphernalia and Gunbelts oral ass cleaning services charge by the mile for at-home service (and I’m very far). Anyone who can’t confidently assume there will be uninflected reliable people they can count on externally, then only choice is to stockpile for at least 2 weeks as that seems to be the minimum home quarantine timeline.

for me, the real question here, is why TF has NOTHING else sold out? Lol. Like, what is going to be the substrate for the poop production process that will put all that TP to use? Food seems to be taken far less seriously than TP lol

A relative up in Northern VA posted pics of the a Walmart. It was cleaned out. Meat, bread, produce, water, TP etc they apparently don't like Utz.

NiQzqSQ.jpg


The best part was he said everyone in the produce section was still finger banging all the produce trying to pick the best one.

Aj58aQ8.jpg


JnGIyAu.jpg


SGfti9X.jpg


8Y4BfD9.jpg
 
Some pics from Concord today

2 Walmarts and a Food Lion almost completely out of TP. Insanity
babc45d7ef6e75c36afcdbcc9cb4169f.jpg
ad60169231ccf78d8924b9f666fb6217.jpg
4fa7c9ea86a20b19c886ccc385471e01.jpg


I don't get it! People are just crazy!
 
Last edited:
In the context of coronavirus, he was criticized for shutting down air travel from China. Are any of his initial critics still harping about that? Nope.
You're right. Now they're calling him racist and xenophobic for shutting down travel to Europe, and complaining how inhumane (and inhuman) he is for not letting "refugees" over the border.

You seem to think that the Fed letting states take the lead on this is a bad thing. Seems to me that's the way it SHOULD be. Certainly the way it was intended by those old white slave-owners who wrote that ancient outdated document that lets everyone have fully-semi-automatic assault weapons.

Why SHOULD the federal government step in when it's being dealt with in other ways?
 
A relative up in Northern VA posted pics of the a Walmart. It was cleaned out. Meat, bread, produce, water, TP etc they apparently don't like Utz.

NiQzqSQ.jpg


The best part was he said everyone in the produce section was still finger banging all the produce trying to pick the best one.

Aj58aQ8.jpg


JnGIyAu.jpg


SGfti9X.jpg


8Y4BfD9.jpg

lol that’s funny about the Utz thing.

I’m writing a letter to my representatives if my Walmart looks like that “I demand to have a special window of game land deer season!”
 
I’ve been laughing about people hoarding water, so of course our county water tests positive for e-coli yesterday. Found out today, rewashing and sterilizing the kitchen now. of course brushed my teeth and drank some water this morning, so might be on a forced diet early next week,
 
You're right. Now they're calling him racist and xenophobic for shutting down travel to Europe, and complaining how inhumane (and inhuman) he is for not letting "refugees" over the border.

You seem to think that the Fed letting states take the lead on this is a bad thing. Seems to me that's the way it SHOULD be. Certainly the way it was intended by those old white slave-owners who wrote that ancient outdated document that lets everyone have fully-semi-automatic assault weapons.

Why SHOULD the federal government step in when it's being dealt with in other ways?
Trump doesn't need to dictate to the states, but he does need to lead. As I've been posting about in this thread, he and his team (esp Pence as head of the task force) have been downplaying the virus. Not even 10 days ago, Trump was babbling on about "15 cases and very quickly going to zero". Well, now it's 100x that number. You lose all credibility when you say dumbass things like that. And without credibility he cannot lead. He started on that road to redemption last night, but he will need to do more to get ahead of the virus and win back the confidence of the people. As I've said umpteen times already, replacing Pence with Scott Gottlieb would be a significant step in this regard. Trump and the task force (not just the task force - this is #1 priority for America and the world, so Trump needs to focus on this, not simply hand it off to his idiot VP) need to lay out suggestions for the states, and they need to share that with the public, so that we can see there is a coordinated plan, not just a random free-for-all at state and local jurisdiction levels even while they do have to adapt for local situations. Even today, I've seen people complaining about being refused testing because they hadn't been in China recently. WTF? The initial criteria set by CDC was boneheaded and now it will take time for the changed criteria to filter through to local doctors and administrators - this coordination needs to be much improved!

I previously suggested a rough outline of steps we need to take to contain this epidemic. Trump needs to hold a presser and lay out a plan (he should consult with Gottlieb, not Pence or the incompetent who runs the CDC who has botched multiple aspects of the response) and then have the federal government implement that plan, including getting a deal done with Congress (one that is tailored specifically to containing the virus, not Trump's payroll tax relief or the Dem's wishlist), and press the states to hold up their end, again, realizing that state/local response will be tailored to local situations.

Right now, the average person has no idea what the governments plan is - all they see is officials reacting out of the same panic they feel. This is not confidence inspiring, and it adds to the fear. This is why you see people rushing to the stores to buy anything - they're not even sure what to buy, but it makes them feel better to do something, since they have no idea what the authorities' plans are.

It's not too late for Trump to get hold of the reigns, but he needs to act quickly - the virus doesn't waste a minute. If he does, and does so competently, we can have this under control in 6-8 weeks. And he will look like a hero. If he doesn't, this will drag on for several months and he will lose the election.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: NKD
lol that’s funny about the Utz thing.

I’m writing a letter to my representatives if my Walmart looks like that “I demand to have a special window of game land deer season!”

I assume we won't even need to ask for forgiveness...
My wife has been saying the bunnies that run through the yard are cute and we need to give them a good home... I told her not to get attached because i'm watching where they run in case I have to set up snare lines...
Been keeping my eye on the possums and deer too.
 
I’ve been laughing about people hoarding water, so of course our county water tests positive for e-coli yesterday. Found out today, rewashing and sterilizing the kitchen now. of course brushed my teeth and drank some water this morning, so might be on a forced diet early next week,

just take pictures of the weight loss and maybe stage a green or orange smoothie in a few. “Intestinal cleansing” is super trendy. Maybe you can monetize the situation.
 
A relative up in Northern VA posted pics of the a Walmart. It was cleaned out. Meat, bread, produce, water, TP etc they apparently don't like Utz.

NiQzqSQ.jpg
I love UTZ products. Maybe the UTZ truck got there first to restock. :D

But, yeah. It's starting. We laugh at it, but it's not so funny when you actually can't get what you want or need, whether the scare is real or not.
 
I posted in another thread - I've crunched the numbers and my prediction is this will have blown over by end of June.

What numbers? Positive cases vs symptomatic cases vs hospitalized?

We met yesterday with the hospitals EM person, telex/webex with state and CDC. Some models are projecting flattening curve in 6-8 weeks with decreased numbers across the board; others, project it lasting into the fall. Now, all models are based on previous data and there are some variables for which you cannot control. The hope is the very early demand for social distancing and closings/shut downs, the spread is halted much earlier than in Europe and Asia and we'll be on the back end by early summer.
 
What numbers? Positive cases vs symptomatic cases vs hospitalized?

We met yesterday with the hospitals EM person, telex/webex with state and CDC. Some models are projecting flattening curve in 6-8 weeks with decreased numbers across the board; others, project it lasting into the fall. Now, all models are based on previous data and there are some variables for which you cannot control. The hope is the very early demand for social distancing and closings/shut downs, the spread is halted much earlier than in Europe and Asia and we'll be on the back end by early summer.

Aren’t we behind as far as social distancing vs China, S Korea and other Asian counties? That is my understanding. They were must faster in suggesting and or mandating social distancing. Add that to the fact that we don’t have the same levels of testing. I keep saying it but S Korea is testing more people on a daily then we have in total.

I think that is why the models are so varied. We are looking at data that is a week old or historical data. What we do know is that data is not accurate which again leads to the variance in the projections.

It seems like the real answer is we don’t know.
 
Last edited:
We met yesterday with the hospitals EM person, telex/webex with state and CDC. Some models are projecting flattening curve in 6-8 weeks with decreased numbers across the board; others, project it lasting into the fall.
As a friend of mine likes to say, all models are wrong but some are useful.

Now, all models are based on previous data and there are some variables for which you cannot control. The hope is the very early demand for social distancing and closings/shut downs, the spread is halted much earlier than in Europe and Asia and we'll be on the back end by early summer.
This is where I see things getting difficult in this country for two reasons. One is the culture. Already we’re seeing even on this forum griping about sporting venues getting shut down, and people saying they’re getting on a gosh darn plane and going to vacation at XYZ. The second problem is economic. You start closing down schools and that in turn starts shutting down businesses how are all these massive debt payments going to be made? Are we going to drive everyone or large swaths of the population into insolvency for something they had no way of controlling? This isn’t a “personal responsibility” issue. That would take some serious govt. muscle to prevent and suspending federal income taxes doesn’t even scratch it.
 
I’ve been laughing about people hoarding water, so of course our county water tests positive for e-coli yesterday. Found out today, rewashing and sterilizing the kitchen now. of course brushed my teeth and drank some water this morning, so might be on a forced diet early next week,

a sip of clorex will clear that up..
 
I never learned how to multi-quote.

@wvsig some places in China did it sooner, but already had a higher number of CV19-infected people. I think some places in Europe pulled the trigger later in the process than we did. Totally agree, we do not know.

@noway2 , I agree. Models can be predictive so long as you include the right data, but most people see them as a prognosticator of future events rather than a variety of probabilities. Social distancing/shut downs are going to absolutely pound the economy. I am not a fan of 'government bailouts' especially with failing business who fail because of their own stupidity, but this is the time to throw the weight behind it for real. FDR did it to Wall Street and banking in 1933 (and subsequently). I have to be honest, I have no idea what it would take or what it would look like.
 
I never learned how to multi-quote.

Social distancing is not in their DNA...

Just hit the reply button on all the ones you want to quote. They will populate in the reply box.
Just be mindful of where their quote ends ( after this --> [/quote] ) and where you want to type.
 
Last edited:
Yet they did it.

China did it, but in cities of extraordinary population density, and in multi-generational homes, it was a real challenge. It absolutely worked in some of the less-populated areas, I do wonder how effective it was, say, in Wuhan. I know SD in China was also accompanied by pretty draconian threats (imprisonment, etc.) if people violated quarantines. SD has worked better in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan; but then, they were much more aggressive on the front end.
 
ATM

Coronavirus COVID-19  2019-nCoV .png

Coronavirus COVID-19  2019-nCoV  (1).png
 
Last edited:
My son works at a grocery store and said people were camped out before opening today. I expect full blown riots before Monday

Already near-riots in Costco. My wife was at Harris Teeter at 7 am, said it was packed, out of many things, half-stocked with others. "It was a zoo," she said. So...as schools close, parents stay home...fewer drivers...less stock...a vicious circle.
 
Back
Top Bottom