Wuhan, nCV, germs....

Me. said:
So what? We already have too many people.


Think about this. Especially the older folks here.

When my mom was born, there were two billion people on earth. We then set about killing more humans than ever in history (WWII). My mom is still alive, there are now over SEVEN billion people.


Let that sink in for a second. In 80 years, we have replaced everyone who has died and ADDED five BILLION people.


You could wipe out five billion people (71% of the population of the planet) and you would reset us back to only the 1930s.

And within the lifespan of a child born today, they would all be replaced.


I don’t want to sound like a monster, but I’m not afraid of the outcome of a global pandemic. I’m not against fighting it, but even if we had The Plague level losses, humans would still be the dominant force on the planet.


View attachment 184665


Or, if you prefer:

View attachment 184666
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You know you're not the only one thinking this way.
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Grim said:
This. The dead do not walk/move/etc.; thus the mechanism for the "reanimation" of corpses is highly illogical. However, something that may have appeared dead, or extremely bad off (health-wise), could have inspired these claims of zombies.

New zombie films such as Quarantine and 28 Days Later both theorize that the most likely "zombie" type outbreak would come from a weaponized strain of rabies. It does seem to be the most logical vector for that kind of outbreak.
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Or some infectious variant of bovine spongiform encephalopathy.

Or PAX.


2017_Rieman_Slightly-Alive.jpg
 
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If you step back, this virus outbreak really isn't bad...in the Congo, the current Measles outbreak has racked up 6000+ DEAD and stacking more bodies everyday...plus they are dealing with the 2nd largest Ebola outbreak in history with 1800+ dead.

Actually, measles outbreaks globally, to include here in the US, are rising dramatically.
 
Long_Hunter said:
If you step back, this virus outbreak really isn't bad...in the Congo, the current Measles outbreak has racked up 6000+ DEAD and stacking more bodies everyday...plus they are dealing with the 2nd largest Ebola outbreak in history with 1800+ dead.

Actually, measles outbreaks globally, to include here in the US, are rising dramatically.
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Shhhhh! You're not supposed to know about the Ebola outbreak. Our government has done a great job concealing information from the masses with respect to that.

The company I work for is pushing to get our Ebola vaccine to market soon. I believe to manufacture it, we still need plasma from infected donors (those who survived the infection). So we'll likely need to harvest plasma in affected areas, which is incredibly scary stuff to work with.
 
Long_Hunter said:
If you step back, this virus outbreak really isn't bad...in the Congo, the current Measles outbreak has racked up 6000+ DEAD and stacking more bodies everyday...plus they are dealing with the 2nd largest Ebola outbreak in history with 1800+ dead.

Actually, measles outbreaks globally, to include here in the US, are rising dramatically.
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Well, it's Chinese Holiday and they're boarding planes for destinations unknown. Expect a sudden increase in dispersion.
 
Its not the virus in its current state that is my worst concern. My concern as is with all bioboogers is what is the probability of mutation? I worked with Dr. Lew Stringer the years I was with SORT and when I set up the hazmat team at Forsyth. A lot of people didn't/don't like him for whatever reason. But, I can tell you that he is one of the most knowledgeable MD's I've known personally in this stuff. Many times we would have discussions about what will actually become the next real pandemic. I worked with a MD that retired from the navy as a commander of the USNS Mercy as I said above that pulled time at Detrick.

It is amazing what one bad virus or bacteria cell can become in a relatively short period of time. Some of these cells may have lived dormant for hundreds/thousands of years waiting to be uncovered and find another host. In addition there are so many more vectors than were available back in the old days.

I'm not saying dig a hole and hide, if fact I'm only voicing a somewhat educated opinion. I would invite you to download the Plague Inc. app and see what you think about it.
 
Grim said:
Shhhhh! You're not supposed to know about the Ebola outbreak. Our government has done a great job concealing information from the masses with respect to that.

The company I work for is pushing to get our Ebola vaccine to market soon. I believe to manufacture it, we still need plasma from infected donors (those who survived the infection). So we'll likely need to harvest plasma in affected areas, which is incredibly scary stuff to work with.
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So your company needs plasma from infected survivors/donors to make an Ebola vaccine. It looks like a sizeable population of survivors/donors is being created in the Congo right now.
 
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I have 8 flights, 22 hours flight time, in the next 3 weeks. Gonna start taking vitamins now.
 
Grim said:
Shhhhh! You're not supposed to know about the Ebola outbreak. Our government has done a great job concealing information from the masses with respect to that.

The company I work for is pushing to get our Ebola vaccine to market soon. I believe to manufacture it, we still need plasma from infected donors (those who survived the infection). So we'll likely need to harvest plasma in affected areas, which is incredibly scary stuff to work with.
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I hope that yall will be using better PPE than what the hospital staff used when they were treating the patients that Obama had brought over here for treatment. It was only BSL2 with splash precautions. :eek:
 
elderly, according to the CDC, is anyone over 59 years old.
it's a legal definition which encompasses "elder abuse"
and provides protected class status.
 
Me. said:
I don’t want to sound like a monster, but I’m not afraid of the outcome of a global pandemic. I’m not against fighting it, but even if we had The Plague level losses, humans would still be the dominant force on the planet.


population.jpg


Or, if you prefer:

biblepopulation.jpg
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I think i was in the ripe old 1st or 2nd grade when i realized that "modern convenience" weakens our species and allows people who would have died just a few years ago to thrive. It doesn't much hurt you if you're not strong, smart, or fast anymore.

Also, I didn't know we had more people before the flood than we do now. back before health care, antibiotics, vaccines, electricity, etc. I'd be interested in a source on that...
 
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What aren't we seeing here? Are we being distracted or is this gonna be an eye opener? W.H.O. is not declaring this to be a emergency. Watched their live meeting last night. Kinda weird considering the quarantine actions China has taken thus far. Im not saying the sky is falling but I really think we should be concerned. Be cautious and take extra measures to avoid getting sick.
 
Grim said:
So we'll likely need to harvest plasma in affected areas, which is incredibly scary stuff to work with.
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plasma is scary to work with, or known infected plasma is scary to work with? or infected areas? I'm surprised we're not hit with every plague every day at work. considering how I have to chase people around and yell at them to wear their PPE... Seriously, you're handling blood and plasma from people who may or may not have infectious skin conditions they're trying to hide... stop digging in your eyes and nose with dirty gloves!

Also this... surprised it wasn't here already.
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I’ve seen a few reports that the numbers China is sending out are not nearly high enough. They are only counting deaths from people who die while they are being treated with the virus. If you die before you are official diagnosed with the virus cremation and no count on the official numbers. Seen a few videos of people standing in the street and passing out coughing up blood.
 
DrScaryGuy said:
I think i was in the ripe old 1st or 2nd grade when i realized that "modern convenience" weakens our species and allows people who would have died just a few years ago to thrive. It doesn't much hurt you if you're not strong, smart, or fast anymore.
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I've long maintained that civilization is anti-evolutionary. It coddles the weak, weakening the species as a whole.
 
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I can't confirm this but just heard that 20k die from the flu each year. I'm not sure what to make of this right now. It could be real bad or go the way of the Bird or Swine flue.
 
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Yeah, in absolute terms the number of deaths is trivial (not that any death is trivial). I think there are primarily three things that have people watching this:

  1. The transmission rate appears to be very high.
  2. The death rate appears to be very high.
  3. The Chinese government appears to be responding to this in a much more extreme manner than required, unless 1 & 2 are actually true.

It's hard to evaulate 1 and 2 because 1) it is early in the virus' life and 2) I'm not sure you can assume the Chinese government has been completely honest in their reporting.

Note I am not a SME in virology, but I am a SME in mathematics and statistics.

@Chuckman would you be willing to change the title of this thread to reflect Wuhan and the corona virus specifically? It will help prevent dupes.
 
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Vyntage said:
A four-day time-lapse video of the construction of the temporary hospital in Wuhan.

They are even pouring a foundation ... impressive.

This is the type of thing that plays into #3 in the list above.

https://twitter.com/richardker/status/1221767848919363584?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
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China has a bit of an economic problem, spending an obscene amount to build some buildings in a short period helps them in a number of ways even if it turns out that the virus is no more dangerous than the common cold.
 
I hear what you are saying, but if they are reacting in a manner that benefits them economically because this is not more dangerous than the common cold*, then the rest of their actions become incongruent with that goal. Specifically: travel bans for over 60 million people, complete shutdown of public transportation in Wuhan, partial shutdown of public transportation in other cities, and delaying opening of several institutions and organizations after the CNY.

If you try to come up with motivations that are consistent with all of their actions, I think the two most likely are:

1) The virus is bad, and they know it.
2) They took a lot of flack from the international community for their lack of response during the SARs outbreak, and in the intervening years they have come up with a rapid response plan. Now they have a hard-on to show it to the world. The virus may or may not be bad (compared to the flu).

*It is already more dangerous than the common cold.
 
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Vyntage said:
  1. The transmission rate appears to be very high.
  2. The death rate appears to be very high.
  3. The Chinese government appears to be responding to this in a much more extreme manner than required, unless 1 & 2 are actually true.
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These could also be indications of it being a weaponized virus. If so we are getting a first hand lesson in why such weapons are stupid - they'll blow back on those who use them too.

@JimB has a valid point as well, in regards to their response. They could be using it as a form of domestic stimulus, plus a publicity stunt.
 
I think China has this the virus beat, barring a mutation that greatly increases transmission.

The quarantine steps, massive public awareness (everybody in all of China with masks are wearing them), extension of lunar new year holiday (many businesses and schools closed), and deserted streets in many parts of China, not just Hubei province, are going to drive this virus to burnout.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is on this.
 
Vyntage said:
Are you buying stocks today? I am, and only time will tell if that makes me an idiot or an idiot savant. So far time is leaning towards the first one.
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Yep

Wife of first infected person in Canada is also infected. Not clear if she had also traveled to China. If not, this would confirm transmission outside China, and would be a data point WHO will consider in decision on whether to declare public health emergency.
 
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Vyntage said:
Are you buying stocks today? I am, and only time will tell if that makes me an idiot or an idiot savant. So far time is leaning towards the first one.
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Day 4 of what could be a continuing drop. Unless you bought on the last day of the drop, I'll concur with your thoughts on it. Some will get lucky on this drastic drop.
 
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