Hurricane Florence predictions

Qball said:
My prediction is that this is yet again, another example, of countless examples, of Mother Nature taking care of business and if we lowly humans are in the way, she don't care.

The planet is a system. Hurricanes have existed forever. There's a higher power at work as to the design of these systems. But this isn't the place for such a discussion.

My prediction is that if she hits land and causes destruction, when it's all over and she's headed up north and out to sea, the sky will be a brilliant clear blue with no haze or pollution, natural or man made.
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Well said my friend.
 
In 5-6 days it should arrive at the Outer Banks .. and hammer them (plus Wilmington) for 3-4 days before moving off. 60+ knot gusts

40+ knot gusts as far in as Raleigh.
 
It’s still far out and we don’t know what will affect it from the west but it doesn’t look like much will help steer it away from us.
 
At least they changed the law several years ago so that the SoE does not restrict carrying a firearm.
 
Latest forecast track from the NHC is eerily reminiscent of Hugo in 89.

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wsfiredude said:
Latest forecast track from the NHC is eerily reminiscent of Hugo in 89.
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Hugo came up through Charleston and then to Charlotte, although I think you are right because it was looking like it might hit further east initially. I had/have immediate family in both towns. Ugh.

I fear it is now looking more like Fran to me which came in Wilmington ( I have grown kids there now) and straight up I-40 to Wake County where I am.

I now stay totally distracted when we've got a storm in the water like this until it has passed.
 
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wsfiredude said:
I'm hoping a front will come through between now/Wednesday, push that b*tch back out to sea and turn her around
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That would be great.

As of Friday, the town was tentatively planning on bringing in all fire department personnel on Wednesday night. Looks like they might need to revise that. I will be going to the emergency operations center at the last minute, that is if it is even activated. I think there are only four or five people who are left that were in Charleston for hugo. These transplants have no idea a hurricane can do.
 
lowcountry said:
That would be great.

As of Friday, the town was tentatively planning on bringing in all fire department personnel on Wednesday night. Looks like they might need to revise that. I will be going to the emergency operations center at the last minute, that is if it is even activated. I think there are only four or five people who are left that were in Charleston for hugo. These transplants have no idea a hurricane can do.
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Have tower crew, will travel...
I suspect I’ll be busy fixing various comms around Wilmington after Florence blows through.....


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Mrs..just said Cat 3 to hit Morehead City......

DS

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I was killing time while kids were in Sunday school at Lowe's. They're largely sold out of generators, 5 gallon gas cans and chainsaws.

The employees were joking with me that they run a generator loaner program... They sell out before the storm then return them all if the storm passes us by...
 
Jeffncs said:
I was killing time while kids were in Sunday school at Lowe's. They're largely sold out of generators, 5 gallon gas cans and chainsaws.

The employees were joking with me that they run a generator loaner program... They sell out before the storm then return them all if the storm passes us by...
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A friend of mine has done that with the last two incidences (one hurricane and one winter storm). I finally asked him why he takes them back if he's already paid for them. He figures he doesn't really needone until something like this occurs and it will just take up space. :confused:
 
kcult said:
A friend of mine has done that with the last two incidences (one hurricane and one winter storm). I finally asked him why he takes them back if he's already paid for them. He figures he doesn't really needone until something like this occurs and it will just take up space. :confused:
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I've heard similar stories. I lost power for a week due to a freak Halloween snow storm back in PA. I bought one and run it on a ~monthly basis now. It takes up space, but I look at it as insurance. You hope to never need it, but glad that it's there when you do...
 
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Jeffncs said:
I've heard similar stories. I lost power for a week due to a freak Halloween snow storm back in PA. I bought one and run it on a ~monthly basis now. It takes up space, but I look at it as insurance. You hope to never need it, but glad that it's there when you do...
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Coincidentally, that same friend just text me the link to the one he just ordered. Says it should be here by Thursday. Lol.

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State police are reversing interstates in S.C. to evac Myrtle Beach etc starting tomorrow. A SCHP neighbor told me he was going back on overtime for it
 
11:00 storm track from NOAA. At least it is not going right over my house, just 2-3 miles away.

Screenshot_2018-09-09 HURRICANE FLORENCE.jpg



And this snippet from latest NOAA discussion just thrills me.


"Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5,
potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood
hazard.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials."
 
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wsfiredude said:
Latest forecast track from the NHC is eerily reminiscent of Hugo in 89.
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I was about to post the exact same thing. It's shaping up to possibly become Hurricane Hugo of 2018.
 
I predict human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria! :eek:

No bread, no milk, no gas by wednesday. Beer shelves bare, liquor store stripped clean.

We're all gonna die.

I predict a lot of angry people when they find out Lowes/HomeDepot/TractorSupply changed their return rules on generators/chain saws after the last storm and no one was paying attention or bothered to ask before this one.

I predict me trying to score a deal on Craigslist a couple of months from now on a like new inverter style generator. Something in the 3000W range please. :cool:
 
Guy I follow out of Virginia, wxrisk on Facebook, a meteorologist, just put out a new update, said from Raleigh west to Charlotte and Winston-Salem area could get double-digit rain, it sounds like it could be worse than Fran. He's saying "catastrophic". I think I will be revising my earlier predictions.
 
I don’t know what the storm will do, just bought two more cases of water and fixing to go get diesel and gas for any possible clean up. Also reminded the fiancé that any groceries she intends on buying for the next two weeks need to fit in the cooler and be able to cook on the grill. Other than that I think we will weather the storm fine.
 
Button Pusher said:
Take photos of your home if you had any recent work done such as new flooring, kitchen, bath,
painting, siding and or new roof for any insurance claims.
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That's a great idea. Thanks for posting.
 
Chuckman said:
Guy I follow out of Virginia, wxrisk on Facebook, a meteorologist, just put out a new update, said from Raleigh west to Charlotte and Winston-Salem area could get double-digit rain, it sounds like it could be worse than Fran. He's saying "catastrophic". I think I will be revising my earlier predictions.
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That's the case, we'll run our asses off on Thursday.
 
wsfiredude said:
That's the case, we'll run our asses off on Thursday.
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when I worked during Fran, we stopped running calls about 3 in the morning, did not start back up until about 9 a.m. and then they were stacked.

During Floyd most of problems we're down east , and given how much flooding there was most paramedics were standing by for water rescues or helicopter rescues. I was sent down east to crew a helicopter.

If your management has any sense at all they will suspend operations during the first few hours of the event, and go from there.

Be safe....
 
If you have chainsaws, get spare chains for them and carry your saws with you after the storm if you're out and about. A few weeks ago, right after a thunderstorm, I had just pulled into my neighborhood and was headed down the street towards my street when I came upon a downed 12" diameter pine tree across the road. I couldn't get to my house as it's a "one way in, one way out" neighborhood. I called my wife and she drove up the street with my saws and myself and two neighbors cleared the tree and had the road open in about 20 minutes.

I wanted to get home and there was no one else that was going to "save the day" so I did what I needed to do. But after a big storm like a hurricane, if you're out and about, carry your saws and equipment in case you can help someone out or clear a road for responders etc.....

OF COURSE, AVOID AREAS WITH DOWNED POWERLINES.
 
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I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't. If Charleston gets the hurricane my sister will put my mom on a plane to stay here for a week or until the power comes on down there, because the retirement home will evacuate. If they don't get the hurricane it means my boys in Wilmington probably will get it (and then us).
 
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fieldgrade said:
I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't. If Charleston gets the hurricane my sister will put my mom on a plane to stay here for a week or until the power comes on down there, because the retirement home will evacuate. If they don't get the hurricane it means my boys in Wilmington probably will (and then us).
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It's not looking good for Wilmington. Every prediction I see, we are in the smack dap middle of the cone.

[emoji53]

DS

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DirtySCREW said:
It's not looking good for Wilmington. Every prediction I see, we are in the smack dap middle of the cone.

[emoji53]

DS
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Classes have already been canceled for the entire week at UNCW.
 
fieldgrade said:
Classes have already been canceled for the entire week at UNCW.
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Us Wilmingtonians can kiss our butt goodbye....wife just said Jim Cantore is in Wilmington. He's a freaking hurricane Magnet!!
Let everyone know that they are safer.

DS

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Ikarus1 said:
aren't they all?

Hugo was a fluke, and was a huge cat 4 monster right off the Bermuda coast. This one ain't even close to the size of Hugo
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Yet.

Nature, for the most part, is unpredictable.
 
Ikarus1 said:
aren't they all?

Hugo was a fluke, and was a huge cat 4 monster right off the Bermuda coast. This one ain't even close to the size of Hugo
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It just got through the shear zone. In the next 8 hours expect it to jump to cat 3 and grow from there
 
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